Editor’s note: This story has been updated to correct the headline and to reflect that odds of a larger Federal Reserve interest rate cut fell after Tuesday’s economic data. The story has been updated with additional information on Federal Reserve rate cut probabilities.

U.S. retail sales rose more than expected by 0.1% month-over-month in August, signaling a resilient consumer spending momentum in the middle of the third quarter.

Retail sales slowed significantly from July’s upwardly revised growth; however, as they increased more than anticipated, this could boost the chances of a smaller interest rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee releases its interest rate decision Wednesday.

Before the retail sales data was released, market-implied probabilities pointed to a 67% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut, compared to a 33% likelihood of a smaller 25-basis-point cut, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. As of midday Tuesday, FedWatch shows a 63% chance of a larger 50-basis-point cut and a 37% chance of a 25-basis-point cut.

August Retail Sales Report: Key Highlights

• Retail sales rose by 0.1% on a monthly basis in August, beating the expected 0.2% decline as per TradingEconomics’ consensus.
• July’s retail sales growth was upwardly revised from 1% to 1.1%.
• On a year-over-year basis, retail sales eased from the upwardly revised 2.9% in July to 2.1% in August.
• Excluding motor vehicles and parts, sales grew by 0.1% month-over-month, below the 0.4% growth in July and missing the expected 0.2% increase.
• When excluding gasoline, motor vehicles, and parts, sales rose by 0.2% month-over-month in August, a slowdown from the 0.4% gain in July, and below the expected 0.3%
• Among spending categories, the largest monthly gains were recorded in miscellaneous store retailers, up 1.7%, and nonstore retailers, up 1.4%.
• Conversely, gasoline station, electronics and appliance stores experienced the steepest monthly decline, with sales dropping by 1.2% and 1.1% respectively.

Market Reactions: Dollar Strengthens, Treasury Yields Rise

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF UUP – strengthened following the retail sales report, driven by rising Treasury yields.

Yields on the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury note surged by about 5 basis points to 3.59%, indicating falling odds for a larger Fed rate cut.

Stocks inched higher during Tuesday’s premarket trading, with futures on the S&P 500 up 0.4% at 08:50 a.m. in New York. Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.6% higher.

On Monday, tech stocks closed in the red, with the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 QQQ falling 0.4%, dragged down by chipmakers as the iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX tumbled 1.3%

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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.