Tesla's Massive October Starts Next Week With Third-Quarter Deliveries

Tesla (TSLA) has a big October, with both its robotaxi reveal and third-quarter earnings on the calendar. However, the EV giant’s first hurdle will be when it reports global Q3 vehicle deliveries next week, with analysts projecting the third-best total ever. TSLA shares advanced Wednesday.

If it sticks to its previous third-quarter delivery report schedule, Tesla should announce the data on Wednesday, Oct. 2.

Analyst consensus has Tesla global Q3 deliveries totaling 462,000 units, up 6% vs. Q3 2023, according to FactSet. This total would represent the third-best quarterly delivery total ever for Tesla, behind Q2 2023’s 466,140 and Q4 2023’s record-setting 484,507 deliveries. Analysts project Tesla matching its record total in the fourth quarter, meaning unit sales would be flat compared to a year ago.

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Vehicle deliveries in the second quarter topped analyst expectations but arguably the bigger story was the quarterly performance of Tesla’s energy business.

Tesla stock jumped more than 1% to 257.02 during market action on Wednesday after gaining 1.7% to 254.27 on Tuesday — climbing further above its 50-day moving average to within around 6% of its July high.

Tesla Delivery Estimate Revisions

It is common for delivery estimates to change in the days prior to the announcement.

RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan this week has increased his Tesla Q3 delivery view to 460,000, up from his previous 455,000 estimate. RBC Capital has an outperform rating and a 224 price target on Tesla stock.

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Meanwhile, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter on Tuesday raised the firm’s price target on Tesla to 310, from 300, while increasing the Q3 delivery estimate to 459,000 units and 1.75 million vehicles in 2024.

On Monday, Barclays wrote that it expects Q3 deliveries totaling 470,000 vehicles, which is well above the consensus estimate. The firm said that Q3 volume strength will be driven almost entirely by China while Europe has been a weak spot for Tesla.

Guggenheim Securities analyst Ron Jewsikow on Sept. 20 forecast third-quarter deliveries of 456,000, slightly below the consensus view but well above the analyst’s previous estimate of 435,000.

GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson on Wednesday projected that Tesla’s Q3 deliveries will come in at 456,600, up from its previous forecast of 449,000. Johnson added that the buy-side “whisper” estimate is for Q3 deliveries to come in above 470,000.

Strong Quarterly Performance In China

With just one week left in the third quarter, Tesla registrations in China, a rough gauge for deliveries, are up 20% compared to last quarter and have increased more than 18% vs. a year ago.

Tesla’s China vehicle registrations in Q3 are now about 1% above its previous best quarterly performance in China, during Q4 2023.

Tesla’s year-to-date China registrations have also turned positive in recent weeks. So far in 2024, Tesla registrations in China are up 2% compared to the same time frame in 2023.

Tesla China is benefiting from continued five-year, zero-interest loans to buyers, as well as increased government subsidies for EVs. These are currently running through the end of September.

However as of Sept. 11, Tesla vehicle deliveries in Europe are down more than 16% so far this year, according to Troy Teslike, whose delivery estimates and Tesla data tracking are highly respected among retail Tesla investors.

Teslike has also posted to X in recent weeks that “Tesla is balancing out weaker U.S. sales with stronger sales in China.”

Tesla Stock Performance

TSLA shares rose 3.5% to 238.25 last week, clearing an aggressive entry of 235. TSLA stock has an official 271 buy point from a cup base, according to MarketSurge.

On Sept. 5, shares popped above their 50-day moving average, buoyed by robust China sales and the EV giant’s full self-driving rollout plans.

TSLA shares are up 20% in September after declining 7.7% in August. Tesla stock has battled back in 2024 and is now up 2% on the year, after rebounding more than 80% from a late-April low.

Tesla has a busy October ahead, with third-quarter deliveries, the robotaxi event on Oct. 10, and Q3 earnings expected to be on Oct. 16.

Tesla stock ranks third in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 71 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have an 85 Relative Strength Rating and a 57 EPS Rating.

Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.