US Stocks Rally Loses Steam Ahead of Powell Speech: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — The world’s biggest bond market sagged while US stocks slipped on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled he was in no hurry to cut interest-rates.
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Treasury yields remained higher, led by the policy-sensitive two-year note which climbed to a 3.65% after Powell said the US didn’t have the data yet to make a call on the November meeting.
Powell said the central bank will lower interest rates “over time,” while re-emphasizing that the overall economy remains on solid footing.
“Powell a tiny bit hawkish at the margin, but the Fed still has a lot of cutting to do,” according to Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli. The Fed Chair’s remarks seem to suggest, he added, markets should think about a half-point cut instead of three-quarters of a point for the rest of the year.
Swaps traders further reined in their rate cut bets which had traded closer to a three-quarter point move before the US open.
S&P 500 slumped with declines in Amazon.com Inc. and Nvidia Corp. weighing on the benchmark index. Despite the day’s weakness, the equities gauge is on track for its fourth consecutive quarter of gains — the longest such winning stretch since 2021. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8% before paring losses.
“Powell won’t end the 25 bp versus 50 bp debate this afternoon. Or at least it is very unlikely,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen wrote in a note before the meeting. Friday’s employment report is the main event this week, he said, adding Tuesday’s JOLTS figures from August “should reinforce the idea that a cooling labor market has become the new norm.”
While gauging the outlook for Fed rate cuts, investors must contend with a cocktail of risks, including rising tensions in the Middle East and a looming dockworkers’ strike in critical US ports.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee voiced his concerns about a supply shock if a strike drags on. “That’s going to raise the cost of doing business and lead to shortages,” he told Fox Business.
Meanwhile, Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed told Reuters he was open to another half-point of policy easing at the central bank’s November meeting if the upcoming data showed slower-than-expected job growth.
To Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by David Kostin, a strong print Friday may help fuel risk-on bets and embolden investors to move “out of expensive ‘quality’ stocks into less-loved lower quality firms.”
The relentless rally in stocks will also be tested by third-quarter corporate results set to kick off in mid-October.
“The bull market has survived the year’s historically weakest quarter, the third quarter, and it is likely to remain intact through at least the end of the year, as earnings remain strong, interest rates are moving lower and consumers are still spending,” said Emily Bowersock Hill at Bowersock Capital Partners.
“We expect the fourth quarter to be quite similar to the third quarter – elevated volatility, but with a strong finish,” she added.
European stocks dropped some 1% after Jeep maker Stellantis NV cut its profit margin forecast. On Friday, Volkswagen AG had issued its second profit warning in three months. Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co. slumped in US trading.
That was in contrast to the mood in China, where the CSI 300 Index jumped as much as 9.1%, the most since 2008, fueled by the stimulus package.
Corporate Highlights
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Verizon Communications Inc., the biggest wireless carrier in the US, has agreed to sell thousands of mobile phone towers to digital infrastructure firm Vertical Bridge.
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DirecTV and Dish have agreed to combine in a deal that will create the biggest pay-TV provider in the US.
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REA Group Ltd. walked away from its pursuit of Rightmove Plc after being repeatedly rejected by the UK property portal.
Key events this week:
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Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers speech at National Association for Business Economics conference in Nashville on Monday
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Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene joins panel at NABE to discuss global monetary policy on Monday
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Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Boston Fed President Susan Collins attend conference on Tuesday
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ECB policy makers speaking at various locations include Olli Rehn, Luis de Guindos, Isabel Schnabel and Joachim Nagel on Tuesday
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BOE chief economist Huw Pill speaks at Confederation of British Industry economic growth board on Tuesday
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Bank of Japan issues summary of opinions for September on Tuesday
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South Korea CPI, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday
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Fed speakers include Richmond’s Thomas Barkin, Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, St. Louis’s Alberto Musalem and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Wednesday
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US nonfarm payrolls, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
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The S&P 500 fell 0.1% as of 2:46 p.m. New York time
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The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
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The MSCI World Index fell 0.6%
Currencies
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The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
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The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1133
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The British pound was little changed at $1.3376
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The Japanese yen fell 1% to 143.70 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
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Bitcoin fell 3.6% to $63,432.77
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Ether fell 2.7% to $2,589.23
Bonds
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The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 3.79%
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Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.12%
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Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.00%
Commodities
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West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
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Spot gold fell 1% to $2,630.39 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Michael Mackenzie, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Kit Rees, Margaryta Kirakosian and Catherine Bosley.
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