On Friday, the University of Michigan released the preliminary October Survey of Consumers. Final October data will be released on 25 October.

Key Highlights:

• The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell from 70.1 in September to 68.9 points in October, marking a 1.7% monthly fall and below economist estimates of 70.9 as per data from Benzinga Pro.
• The sub-index for consumer expectations decreased from 74.4 to 72.9 points versus expectations of 75.
• The sub-index for current economic conditions also fell from 63.3 to 62.7 compared to the estimates of 64.3.

Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu noted that consumer sentiment dipped slightly in October, slipping by just 1.2 index points, which falls within the margin of error, after two consecutive months of improvement.

Despite this minor decline, sentiment remains 8% higher than a year ago and nearly 40% above the low point recorded in June 2022.

Based on data from Trading Economics, consumer confidence in the United States averaged 85.26 points between 1952 and 2024, peaking at 111.40 points in January 2000 and hitting a historic low of 50 points in June 2022.

Although inflation expectations have eased significantly since that time, consumers continue to express frustration with elevated prices.

However, long-term business conditions reached their highest level in six months, while current and future personal finances showed modest declines.

Despite widespread media coverage of the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, only a small percentage of consumers (fewer than 5%) spontaneously linked these events to the economy.

With the upcoming election approaching, some consumers seem to be withholding judgment on the economy’s longer-term outlook.

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