The copper market is caught between a stimulus-fueled surge and the looming specter of Trump 2.0 tariffs.

According to JPMorgan’s Bill Peterson, investors are riding high on China’s stimulus optimism, but the road ahead may be rockier than expected.

China Stimulus: A Boost Or Bubble?

China’s recent stimulus announcements have sent copper stocks, including Teck Resources Ltd TECK and Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX, climbing — TECK up 6% and FCX up 8% since late September.

But Peterson warns that expectations might have jumped the gun. While the initial stimulus gave equities a short-term boost, the hope for a massive fiscal package could be premature.

“We don’t expect anything major in the near term,” says JPM’s China economists. Translation: buckle up, copper bulls, you might need more patience.

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Tariff Time Bomb?

Peterson isn’t just cautious on China. The underappreciated Trump 2.0 tariff risk could derail copper’s momentum, especially if U.S.-China trade tensions escalate.

With global demand already looking fragile outside of China, this is a wrinkle investors can’t ignore.

TECK: The Top Pick

Despite the near-term jitters, Peterson is bullish on TECK stock.

The company’s QB2 mine ramp is behind schedule, but there’s light at the end of the tunnel. Expectations are low for its ramp-up, which may actually work in Teck’s favor.

Investors have recognized the potential M&A premium here, and with a $78 price target, TECK remains JPMorgan’s favorite in the copper space. Teck “has a unique portfolio of greenfield copper projects… that could roughly double copper production… by the end of the decade,” Peterson highlights, setting the stock apart from its peers.

FCX: Stable But Neutral

On the other hand, Freeport is the steady ship in the stormy copper sea.

While Teck may offer more growth potential, Freeport’s minimal risk to production targets makes it a safe haven, at least for now.

However, the recent Indonesian smelter fire and the uncertainty around the country’s mining permit extension present new risks. The leaching potential at its flagship Grasberg mine is enticing, but near-term labor constraints could act as a drag.

Peterson sticks with a neutral rating for FCX, seeing it as a stable play but not a blockbuster growth story—at least not yet.

Election Overhang

Adding to the mix, the upcoming U.S. election and persistent interest rate hikes amplify macro uncertainty.

Investors should brace for volatility as these factors could shift sentiment in the coming months. While long-term trends remain positive, Peterson advises caution in the near term and “would wait for a better entry point.”

Copper may be on the rise, but it’s not all smooth sailing. Teck’s growth potential and strong cash position make it a top pick, while Freeport remains a safe bet for risk-averse investors.

As China stimulus optimism cools and tariff risks heat up, it’s a game of wait and watch.

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