Former President Donald Trump has surpassed Vice President Kamala Harris in a latest election poll for the current cycle.

What Happened: The Decision Desk HQ/The Hill forecast model now gives Trump a 52% chance of winning the presidency, compared to Harris’s 42%, according to a report from The Hill. This is a significant shift from late August when Harris was leading with a 54 to 56% chance, and Trump was trailing with a 44 to 46% chance.

The dynamics began to change in early October, with both candidates’ chances predicted to be closer to 50%. By October 17, the model predicted an equal likelihood of either candidate winning the upcoming election. Trump took the lead on October 20.

This shift aligns with Trump’s improved polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan, two battleground states that previously leaned slightly toward Harris. Trump already held a slim advantage in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

However, Pennsylvania, one of the seven swing states seen as decisive in the 2024 election, still favors Harris in its polling average. Despite the shifts, the race remains a toss-up, with polling in all seven states within the margin of error.

These states are crucial in determining which candidate secures the necessary 270 electoral votes. Currently, neither Trump nor Harris has a clear lead in enough states to secure that number.

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Why It Matters: The recent shift in the election forecast comes after a period of narrowing leads and tightening races. Harris had been maintaining a lead over Trump in many election polls until recent weeks.

By October 19, a Benzinga report highlighted a close matchup between Trump and Harris, with election polls predicting a tight race. The recent forecast shift underscores the volatility and uncertainty of the 2024 presidential election.

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This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Shivdeep Dhaliwal