Market participants are almost fully pricing in a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s Nov. 7 meeting as policymakers enter their customary pre-meeting blackout period, where officials abstain from public commentary leading up to the policy decision.

Investors have further bolstered their rate-cut wagers during the week and now are assigning a 96% chance to a quarter-point rate cut, as per CME FedWatch tool.

Next week’s economic data releases include a pivotal inflation report – the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index for September – and October official labor statistics. The latter could see some volatility related to the impacts of hurricanes and strikes on the pace of employment growth and unemployment rate.

Yet, expectations are underpinned by optimism within the Fed that the U.S. economy can sustain job growth without driving new inflationary pressures, suggesting the central bank may gradually unwind its policy restrictiveness.

Mixed Views Among Fed Officials On Rate Path

Federal Reserve officials have expressed varied perspectives on the pace and urgency of rate cuts over the past month.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari recently said to expect “modest cuts over the next quarters,” warning that labor market weakness could accelerate the pace of rate reductions if needed.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he is “not in a rush on rate cuts,” preferring to assess economic data to avoid premature action.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly remarked that that policy adjustments will persist and there is no reason to halt rate cuts.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan similarly leaned towards a gradual rate-cut approach and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized that he does not see convincing evidence that the economy is overheating again.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller highlighted last week that over 100,000 jobs might be missing from the October payrolls report due to factors like recent hurricanes and labor strikes. This disruption could temporarily inflate the unemployment rate, though Waller stressed that the labor market remains “on solid footing.” He affirmed the idea of proceeding with gradual rate cuts.

Market Reactions Signal Optimism Amid Rate Cuts, But Election Uncertainties Loom

September’s 50-basis-point rate cut injected fresh optimism into U.S. equity markets, with major indexes climbing in its wake.

The S&P 500, reflected by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, has gained roughly 3% since Sept. 18, peaking on Oct. 17.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, mirrored by the Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ, saw an even stronger rally, rising around 4% in the same period.

Data from Benzinga Pro highlights the top 10 large-cap performers from Sept. 18 to Oct. 25.

However, with the Fed’s potential rate cut decision set for just two days after the high-stakes presidential election, political uncertainties could weigh heavily on market sentiment in the upcoming weeks.

Investors are especially keen for clarity on the economic policies each candidate intends to pursue, as the U.S. budget deficit looms as a pressing issue.

The latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections suggest the U.S. deficit will continue to widen, raising concerns over long-term fiscal stability and potential impacts on monetary policy going forward.

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