Where Will Nvidia Be 6 Months After the Blackwell Launch? Here's What History Says.
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) may be heading for its biggest moment yet. The artificial intelligence (AI) chip giant is getting ready to launch its new architecture, one that could be a game changer for the industry considering the number of innovative features included in the platform. Nvidia aims to ramp production of the Blackwell architecture and chip in the fourth quarter.
This comes at a key moment for the technology company. Nvidia has built an AI empire over the past few years and grown revenue in the triple digits quarter after quarter. Now, though, as the company’s revenue levels reach extremely high points, triple-digit gains may not be sustainable. And rivals have also produced chips they hope can take market share. So, it’s logical to ask this question: Where will Nvidia be six months after the Blackwell launch? Let’s consider what history has to say — and a few other clues — and find out.
First, a quick summary of Nvidia’s path so far and what to expect from the Blackwell launch. Nvidia has built dominance in the AI market by designing the most powerful chips and an entire platform of products and services to accompany them. So, customers can go to Nvidia simply for the chips, known as graphics processing units (GPUs), or they can get in on the entire Nvidia stack to run their data centers.
This has helped the company grow its quarterly revenue to a record $30 billion and gross margin to levels above 70%. Nvidia also has increased net income in the triple digits, reporting profit of more than $16 billion in the recent quarter.
Investors now are eagerly awaiting the Blackwell launch with high hopes thanks to the architecture’s six game-changing innovations — from Nvidia’s best chip yet to a high-performance preventative maintenance system to ensure system uptime and a fifth-generation NVLink to deliver high-speed communication among up to 576 GPUs.
As mentioned, Nvidia plans on ramping production of Blackwell in the coming weeks, and in Nvidia’s most recent earnings report, chief executive officer Jensen Huang offered us clues about customer interest in this new product. Huang said demand has surpassed supply, and he expects this to continue into next year. More recently, in an interview with CNBC, Huang reconfirmed this, calling demand for Blackwell “insane.”
All of this prompted Nvidia to forecast billions of dollars in Blackwell revenue in the fourth quarter. So Blackwell won’t take long to start adding significantly to Nvidia’s top line. On top of this, Nvidia predicts gross margin in the mid-70% range for the full year, showing us the company is capable of launching this major product while still maintaining an extremely high level of profitability.
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