This ‘Do Nothing Portfolio' Can Beat the S&P 500
A hypothetical stock portfolio has taken hands-off investing to a whole new level.
Jeffrey Ptak, a chartered financial analyst (CFA) for Morningstar, recently devised a passive investment portfolio that’s based on the composition of the S&P 500. But instead of replacing stocks with new companies as they’re delisted from the index, Ptak’s strategy takes an alternative approach: it does nothing.
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This laissez-faire approach to investing produced some compelling hypothetical returns: the portfolio would have beaten the S&P 500 by 5.6% during the 30-year period of March 1993 to March 2023. Here’s how it works, as well as some important lessons you can take from it.
About the Do Nothing Portfolio
Appropriately, Ptak has dubbed this super-passive approach the “Do Nothing Portfolio.” The strategy started with a simple hypothetical: “Imagine you bought a basket of stocks 10 years ago and then you didn’t trade them, not even to rebalance,” he wrote on Morningstar.com. “You just let ’em sit. How would you have done?”
To find out, Ptak compiled the S&P 500’s holdings as of March 31, 2013, and then calculated each stock’s monthly returns going back 10 years. Over 100 of those holdings were no longer in the index 10 years later, many of which were acquired by other companies, according to Ptak. What was left at the end of the 10 years was a portfolio of surviving stocks and cash that had built up over the years following company acquisitions.
The Do Nothing Portfolio would have generated a 12.2% annual return during those 10 years – practically identical to the S&P 500’s return during that time. That caught Ptak’s attention, considering 5.5% of the Do Nothing Portfolio’s assets were cash. By comparison, the S&P 500 was fully invested. The Do Nothing Portfolio was also less volatile during that period and produced better risk-adjusted returns than the index, Ptak wrote.
Ptak took his experiment several steps further and tested the Do Nothing Portfolio in two other non-overlapping 10-year periods – March 31, 1993 to March 31, 2003, and March 31, 2003 to March 31, 2013. The portfolio beat the index by nearly one percentage point during the first 10-year stretch and nearly matched it in the second, all while offering better risk-adjusted returns.
In total, the Do Nothing Portfolio would have outperformed the index over the full 30-year period and been less volatile. For example, Ptak found that $10,000 invested in the Do Nothing Portfolio at the end of March 1993 would have grown to $172,278 within 30 years, while the same investment in the S&P 500 would have been worth $163,186.
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