NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks are drifting Monday ahead of a momentous week full of potential flashpoints, but other markets are already moving more sharply, including a jump for oil prices and drops for Treasury yields.

The S&P 500 was flat in early trading, though it’s still near its record set last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 135 points, or 0.3%, as of 9:50 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.1% lower.

Marriott International fell 3.1% after reporting weaker profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. But Fox climbed 3.9% after the media giant reported stronger profit for the latest quarter than expected. That was despite increases in some costs, including for newsgathering at Fox News for this election cycle.

Election Day will arrive Tuesday, though its result may not be known for some time as officials count all the votes. That’s raised fears about the possibility of sharp swings around the world because markets infamously hate uncertainty.

That’s even though the broad U.S. stock market has historically gone on to rise regardless of which party wins the White House. And in 2020, U.S. stocks rose immediately after Election Day and kept going even after former President Donald Trump refused to concede and challenged the results, creating lots of uncertainty. A large part of that rally was also due to excitement in the market around the potential for a vaccine for COVID-19, which had just shut down the global economy.

“Bottom line – the US election is incredibly important, but the process is likely to be incredibly noisy,” according to Michael Zezas, a strategist at Morgan Stanley.

For markets, Zezas also points to how prices may have already moved ahead of expected outcomes from the election. A win for Trump this election could mean U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports, for example, but the value of the Mexican peso has already fallen against the U.S. dollar in recent months. That could limit further moves if a Trump win were to actually happen.

A Trump victory would also be less of a surprise to markets this time around than in 2016, when Treasury yields soared amid expectations for tax cuts that could fuel a stronger U.S economy, further inflate its debt or both. Treasury yields have already climbed in recent weeks, in part due to rising expectations in some market corners for a Trump win, along with a spate of reports showing the U.S. economy remains more resilient than feared.

On Monday, Treasury yields gave back a chunk of those gains. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.27% from 4.38% late Friday.

Story Continues