US Futures Waver as PPI Keeps Rate Debate Open: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — US equity futures steadied after a gauge of producer price inflation came in line with expectations, while investors debate the likelihood of an interest rate cut in December.
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Contracts for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gave up a modest gain and Treasury yields rose after the data amid signs that a post-election equity surge is starting to stall.
Investors are trying to balance a picture of easing inflation and falling rates against the possibility that President-elect Donald Trump will implement hardline pledges on taxes and tariffs, reigniting price growth next year. Confirmation of a Republican election clean sweep suggests more policy leeway for Trump and limits potential curbs on his power.
“There is expectation that Trump’s policies will be market friendly, growth friendly, will be impacting higher inflation but not massively, deregulation is going to be good for some sectors,” said Amelie Derambure, senior multi-asset portfolio manager at Amundi. “The assumption is we have good, soft Trump with no big negative impact priced by markets.”
The dollar index extended its rally to hold near two-year highs after the data. Bitcoin traded at about $91,000, holding close to Wednesday’s record high.
The producer price index for final demand increased 0.2% from a month earlier after rising a revised 0.1% in September, Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed Thursday. Separately, applications for US unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since May last week, indicating the robustness of the labor market.
Several Fed officials Wednesday reiterated their deep uncertainty over how far the central bank will need to lower interest rates with the central bank’s 2% inflation target still elusive. Fed chief Jerome Powell is also due to speak later in the day.
Currently, money markets price around 19 basis points of rate cuts for December and several policymakers have urged a cautious approach. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, for instance, said on Thursday that rate cuts should be paused if progress on inflation stalls.
Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman said that with Trump likely to have the wherewithal to carry out his agenda, the scope for rate cuts could be limited going forward. The dollar more than 2% so far this month on the prospect of pro-growth policies and fewer rate cuts.
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