Day: November 16, 2024

Shopify (SHOP) and Block (SQ) are two very different companies, yet both operate in the e-commerce and payments sectors, serving businesses in related ways. Over the past five years, their trajectories have been quite similar – both were major beneficiaries of pandemic tailwinds, only to face significant drawdowns as those effects faded. Using TipRanks’ Stock Comparison Tool, this article provides a closer look at the recent developments of both companies, including their latest Q3 earnings reports, leading to a neutral outlook for Shopify and a bullish outlook for Block, which appears to be the better buy for now.

Now, let’s dive deeper into the comparison and explore the reasons behind my outlook for each company.

Before delving into the investment thesis for Shopify and Block, it’s important to first highlight their business models and target audiences.

Shopify is primarily an e-commerce platform that enables businesses to create and manage online stores. It offers tools for selling products, processing payments, and managing inventory. Its main focus is to help entrepreneurs and businesses of all sizes sell goods online easily.

Block, on the other hand, is a financial services and payments solutions company. It offers point-of-sale (POS) systems, payment processing, and other financial services, mainly targeting small to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) that need simple, user-friendly solutions for processing payments.

In terms of how they generate revenue, Shopify generates revenue through tiered subscription plans, starting at $39 per month, with additional fees for payment processing and extra features. Meanwhile, Block offers a free basic plan for payment processing, charging transaction fees (typically 2.6% + 10 cents for in-person payments), and paid services like payroll and advanced POS features. Additionally, Block has shifted some focus to cryptocurrency, emphasizing Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and decentralized financial services through its Cash App.

While I remain somewhat skeptical about Shopify for now, in contrast to my more optimistic outlook on Block, it is interesting to note that both companies have shown similar patterns over the past five years, experiencing significant drawdowns following the pandemic.

This can be attributed to the fact that both Shopify and Block (formerly Square) were trading at high valuations heading into 2021, fueled by pandemic-driven growth, low interest rates, and the booms in e-commerce and fintech. As investors anticipated continued hyper-growth, both stocks saw sharp price increases.

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However, after the pandemic surge, Shopify faced a slowdown in merchant base growth, raising concerns about its ability to retain customers, especially as competition intensified. On the other hand, Block experienced significant volatility in its Bitcoin-related revenue through Cash App, making its earnings more unpredictable and more exposed to market cycles and crypto price fluctuations. These factors contributed to major drawdowns for both stocks, with Shopify falling 82% and Block dropping 85%.

Although I have a neutral outlook on Shopify, this stance is not a reflection of the company’s fundamentals. Shopify’s investment thesis is supported by its impressive growth trajectory in recent quarters, particularly its ability to sustain strong revenue growth while expanding profitability margins.

Over the past three years, Shopify’s revenue has grown at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 25%, while maintaining gross margins of 51%. Looking ahead, the company is expected to grow EPS at an impressive 43.6% annually over the next three to five years. However, my main concern lies in valuations. With a forward P/E ratio of 88.8x, Shopify trades at a relatively high multiple, resulting in a PEG ratio of 2x, which suggests the stock is somewhat richly valued.

These stretched valuation multiples reflect Shopify’s strong momentum, further supported by its Q3 2024 earnings, reported on November 12, which helped boost Shopify’s stock by more than 25%. The company posted 26% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $2.16 billion and marking the sixth consecutive quarter of growth above 25%.

Noteworthy, this growth is not only in the top line but also in operational efficiency and profitability. A standout achievement in Q3 was Shopify’s ability to drive strong revenue growth while simultaneously expanding profit margins, a rare feat among high-growth tech companies. Operating income surged 132% from $122 million in Q3 2023 to $283 million in Q3 2024, driven by scaling operations rather than cost-cutting. As a result, operating expenses grew by just 7% year-over-year, while gross profit increased by 24%, showcasing Shopify’s ability to scale efficiently.

In comparison, Block has shown strong performance similar to Shopify, with a 52% increase in the stock price over the past year. I maintain a slightly more bullish view of the company despite its slower growth profile and lower margins (36% gross margin) compared to Shopify. Over the past three years, Block has grown its revenue at a CAGR of 12.5%, which is respectable but not exceptional for a growth stock.

Given this more modest growth trajectory, Block currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 24.2x, nearly double the industry average. However, the company is forecasting robust bottom-line growth, with an expected CAGR of 39.9% over the next three to five years, which gives Block a PEG ratio of just 0.6x, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its growth potential.

Even though the current momentum for Block is highly bullish, its Q3 results, reported on November 7, were mixed: the company met bottom-line expectations but missed revenue estimates, despite posting 6% revenue growth. However, investors seemed to focus more on profitability, as Block made notable progress in gross profit growth. Total consolidated gross profit reached $2.25 billion, reflecting a 19% year-over-year increase.

What stood out in Block’s earnings report was the strong momentum in its Cash App segment, which saw 21% year-over-year growth in gross profit, outperforming the Square segment, which delivered a 16% rise in its gross profit. Cash App now represents 58% of Block’s total gross profit, highlighting its crucial role in driving the company’s overall growth.

Looking at the Wall Street consensus, Shopify stock is rated a Moderate Buy, with 11 out of 18 analysts bullish, six having a Hold rating, and only one analyst assigning a Sell recommendation. The average SHOP stock price target of $85.31 suggests a downside potential of about 22%, highlighting concerns about the company’s valuations.

See more SHOP analyst ratings

On the other hand, Block stock is rated a Strong Buy based on 22 Buys, four Holds, and one Sell recommendation. The average SQ stock price target is $89.50, implying 7.3% upside potential.

See more SQ analyst ratings

While both Shopify and Block have been standout performers this year, with strong progress in recent quarters, especially in Q3, Block appears to be the better investment right now.

Shopify offers greater growth potential and stronger margins, but this comes with a much higher valuation, which I believe is justified by its premium growth prospects. In contrast, Block has a more modest growth trajectory, yet it is steadily progressing toward profitability, driven largely by the momentum in its Cash App business. Moreover, Block trades at valuations that seem undervalued relative to its strong EPS growth forecast, making it a less risky investment in my view.

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I’m nearing retirement and I’m wrestling with hiring either a flat-fee or fee-only (AUM) advisor to help with retirement planning and ongoing investment advice for an estate worth between $4-5 million. There is a big cost difference between the two: the flat fee would be about $8,000 a year, while the fee-only advisor charges about $35,000. The flat fee is very enticing but I don’t know if I would receive the same service?

-Dave

For many investors, fees are among the most important criteria to consider when interviewing prospective advisors. On the surface, two advisors might seem quite similar, but their fees could differ materially. How could this be? As you astutely recognize, Dave, it often comes down to the level of services that each advisor provides.

Looking for someone to help you plan for retirement or manage your portfolio? SmartAsset’s free tool can match you with up to three fiduciary financial advisors.

Flat-fee and fee-only (AUM) advisors sometimes have different service models, which can lead to a noticeable divergence in annual fees. We’ll explore what these two fee structures mean, unpack some potential differences in service models between the two advisors, and offer suggestions on how to evaluate each advisor.

Flat fees and asset-based (or AUM) fees are two of the most common advisor compensation structures. As outlined in the question, when working with a flat-fee advisor, you pay a certain absolute dollar amount each year for the advisor’s services – in this case, $8,000 per year. The dollar value of the fee does not fluctuate based on how much money the advisor manages for you. Payments might be made in installments or when certain milestones are reached. For example, a flat-fee advisor may have you pay 50% upfront and the rest after a financial plan has been delivered.

Fee-only advisors, on the other hand, charge a percentage fee based on assets under management (AUM). As a result, the actual dollar value of fees paid each year will depend on the value of your portfolio that’s managed by the advisor. So, the $35,000 fee that the advisor quoted you could be different next year depending on how your portfolio performs.

Because they are paid more when your assets grow (and vice versa) and do not receive commissions for selling investment products, fee-only advisors are considered to have relatively strong alignment of interests with their clients. However, this may also incentivize advisors to manage portfolios either too aggressively or too conservatively, depending on whether they prioritize fee growth or stability.

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In a fee-only relationship, fees are often paid quarterly and are drawn directly from the portfolio balance. Fee-only advisors typically calculate the percentage fee using a tiered or scaled system – as assets under management increase, the percentage fee generally decreases. (And if you need help finding an advisor to work with, try SmartAsset’s free tool matching tool.)

While factors such as experience, credentials, firm size and brand can influence pricing, service delivery will likely serve as the primary difference between the two advisors under consideration. Let’s walk through a few key areas within “service” to evaluate and some questions that you can ask yourself and the prospective advisors.

Sometimes, advisors who charge a flat fee provide only a financial plan for you to follow. This means they might not manage your assets on a daily basis. If that is the case, how will you manage your investment accounts? Will the advisor outsource it? If so, what additional fees are associated with the engagement, and how will the advisor ensure the investment strategy is aligned with the plan they created?

If the advisor doesn’t outsource portfolio management, will you have the capacity, interest and capabilities necessary to do it on your own? Given how fees are structured with fee-only advisors, it’s likely that they will manage your investments directly. Still, it’s important to understand what those services entail and how the strategy aligns with your overall financial plan.

Managing estates and estate planning, as seem to be central to your situation, tend to be complex, with several generations to consider. While it’s not always the case, larger asset pools like yours can increase the complexity of services that are required to meet your needs. You will want to understand how well-equipped each advisor is to help you address the complexities unique to your situation.

A good question to ask is: “Can you describe how and when you make adjustments to our plan and portfolio (if directly managing your assets)?” Similarly: “What influences your decisions as an advisor and team when making these adjustments?” This will help inform you of how the team is structured and what drives their decision-making process.

With any advisor, you will want to know often they’ll be meeting with you. How many sessions do you get with each advisor per year? What deliverables do they provide you with? How hands on with implementation are they?

In other words, do they provide a plan and leave you to implement each piece, or do they do most of the subsequent execution for you? At the high end of touch, do they effectively serve as an on-call, outsourced CFO? Who is the primary point of contact and how much support do they have behind the scenes? Lastly, ask yourself what level of accessibility you need and how much help you’ll need with respect to implementation, considering the level of complexity and customization required to execute your plan.

When thinking about the differences in services, remember to keep them in the context of your goals for managing your estate. Are you seeking to protect and preserve the estate for transfer to the next generation, generate retirement income or fund philanthropic goals? It’s possible that it’s a combination of a few of these, but which advisor and fee structure would ultimately best advance these goals?

If you determine that the advisor with the higher fee provides the right services for your needs and goals, then the fees could be justified. (And if you want to expand your search for a financial advisor, SmartAsset’s free tool can match you with up to three fiduciary advisors.)

Ultimately, the choice comes down to your personal priorities, which of course include fees. While it’s imperative to assess how well each each advisor’s services align with your needs, it’s equally important to consider various subjective factors that go into the decision. How did you feel when meeting with them? How would you compare the level of trust established with each advisor? What are their motivations and do they align with your goals? Finding the right fit both functionally and emotionally is vital since successful advisory relationships tend to be long-term in nature.

A useful practice to help gather your thoughts and make an unbiased choice is to list your priorities, assign weights to each, and score each item on a scale of 1 to 3 or 1 to 5. You might pick a tiebreaker if the weighted scores come out equal. This exercise could help you to remain objective and avoid making a decision that is motivated by the wrong factors.

• There’s a lot that goes into finding a financial advisor. You’ll want to work with someone who offers the specialized services you need, like education planning or alternative investment management, for example. You’ll also want to find someone who clearly communicates how their fees work and how much you’ll pay for their services. Also, look into the legal and regulatory history of the advisor and/or their firm. Disclosures on an advisor’s record can be a significant red flag, but not always. To help you navigate this process, we’ve created a comprehensive guide for how to find and choose a financial advisor.

• Finding a financial advisor doesn’t have to be hard. SmartAsset’s free tool matches you with up to three vetted financial advisors who serve your area, and you can have a free introductory call with your advisor matches to decide which one you feel is right for you. If you’re ready to find an advisor who can help you achieve your financial goals, get started now.

• Keep an emergency fund on hand in case you run into unexpected expenses. An emergency fund should be liquid — in an account that isn’t at risk of significant fluctuation like the stock market. The tradeoff is that the value of liquid cash can be eroded by inflation. But a high-interest account allows you to earn compound interest. Compare savings accounts from these banks.

• Are you a financial advisor looking to grow your business? SmartAsset AMP helps advisors connect with leads and offers marketing automation solutions so you can spend more time making conversions. Learn more about SmartAsset AMP.

Jeremy Suschak, CFP®, is a SmartAsset financial planning columnist who answers reader questions on personal finance topics. Got a question you’d like answered? Email AskAnAdvisor@smartasset.com and your question may be answered in a future column.

Jeremy is a financial advisor and head of business development at DBR & CO. Additional resources from the author can be found at dbroot.com.

Please note that Jeremy is not a participant in SmartAsset AMP, nor is he an employee of SmartAsset, and he has been compensated for this article. Some reader-submitted questions are edited for clarity or brevity.

Photo credit: ©iStock.com/fizkes, ©iStock.com/hobo_018

The post Ask an Advisor: I’m Hiring an Advisor to Manage My $4-5 Million Estate. Should I Choose the $8k Flat Fee Over a $35k Asset-Based Fee? appeared first on SmartReads by SmartAsset.

Mortgage rates have spiked today. According to Zillow, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has increased by 10 basis points to 6.64%, the 15-year fixed rate is up by 10 basis points to 5.98%, and the 5/1 ARM rate has risen by 29 basis points to 7.27%.

If you’re in no rush to buy, you may want to wait until the home-buying season starts in 2025. There’s no guarantee that mortgage rates will be lower by then, though — so if you’re itching to buy a house soon, you probably shouldn’t let today’s rates stop you from getting the ball rolling. It’s unlikely rates will plummet anytime soon.

Read more: How are mortgage rates determined? It’s complicated.

Here are the current mortgage rates, according to the latest Zillow data:

• 30-year fixed: 6.64%

• 20-year fixed: 6.54%

• 15-year fixed: 5.98%

• 5/1 ARM: 7.27%

• 7/1 ARM: 7.21%

• 30-year VA: 5.99%

• 15-year VA: 5.49%

• 5/1 VA: 6.25%

• 30-year FHA: 5.70%

• 15-year FHA: 5.69%

• 5/1 FHA: 4.88%

Remember, these are the national averages and rounded to the nearest hundredth.

Learn more: 5 strategies for getting the lowest mortgage rates

These are today’s mortgage refinance rates, according to the latest Zillow data:

• 30-year fixed: 6.69%

• 20-year fixed: 6.40%

• 15-year fixed: 6.03%

• 5/1 ARM: 7.67%

• 7/1 ARM: 7.35%

• 30-year VA: 6.05%

• 15-year VA: 5.65%

• 5/1 VA: 5.58%

Again, the numbers provided are national averages rounded to the nearest hundredth. Mortgage refinance rates are often higher than rates when you buy a house, although that’s not always the case.

Use Yahoo Finance’s free mortgage calculator to see how various interest rates and term lengths will impact your monthly mortgage payment. It also shows how the home price and down payment amount play into things.

Our calculator includes homeowners insurance and property taxes in your monthly payment estimate. You even have the option to enter costs for private mortgage insurance (PMI) and homeowners’ association dues if those apply to you. These details result in a more accurate monthly payment estimate than if you simply calculated your mortgage principal and interest.

There are two main advantages to a 30-year fixed mortgage: Your payments are lower, and your monthly payments are predictable.

A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has relatively low monthly payments because you’re spreading your repayment out over a longer period of time than with, say, a 15-year mortgage. Your payments are predictable because, unlike with an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM), your rate isn’t going to change from year to year. Most years, the only things that might affect your monthly payment are any changes to your homeowners insurance or property taxes.

The main disadvantage to 30-year fixed mortgage rates is mortgage interest — both in the short and long term.

A 30-year fixed term comes with a higher rate than a shorter fixed term, and it’s higher than the intro rate to a 30-year ARM. The higher your rate, the higher your monthly payment. You’ll also pay much more in interest over the life of your loan due to both the higher rate and the longer term.

The pros and cons of 15-year fixed mortgage rates are basically swapped from the 30-year rates. Yes, your monthly payments will still be predictable, but another advantage is that shorter terms come with lower interest rates. Not to mention, you’ll pay off your mortgage 15 years sooner. So you’ll save potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars in interest over the course of your loan.

However, because you’re paying off the same amount in half the time, your monthly payments will be higher than if you choose a 30-year term.

Dig deeper: 15-year vs. 30-year mortgages

Adjustable-rate mortgages lock in your rate for a predetermined amount of time, then change it periodically. For example, with a 5/1 ARM, your rate stays the same for the first five years and then goes up or down once per year for the remaining 25 years.

The main advantage is that the introductory rate is usually lower than what you’ll get with a 30-year fixed rate, so your monthly payments will be lower. (Current average rates don’t necessarily reflect this, though — in some cases, fixed rates are actually lower. Talk to your lender before deciding between a fixed or adjustable rate.)

With an ARM, you have no idea what mortgage rates will be like once the intro-rate period ends, so you risk your rate increasing later. This could ultimately end up costing more, and your monthly payments are unpredictable from year to year.

But if you plan to move before the intro-rate period is over, you could reap the benefits of a low rate without risking a rate increase down the road.

Learn more: Adjustable-rate vs. fixed-rate mortgage

First of all, now is a relatively good time to buy a house compared to the last couple of years. Mortgage rates are lower than last November, and home prices aren’t spiking like they were during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. So, if you want or need to buy a house soon, you should feel pretty good about the current climate.

On the other hand, rates have been increasing over the last couple of months. If you’re in no rush to buy, you may want to hold out until 2025 in case rates decrease. Just remember that no one has a crystal ball about what mortgage rates will do, so there is no guarantee that rates will plummet in 2025. Also, if rates do go down, you’ll likely face more competition and maybe even higher prices to meet the demand.

Read more: Which is more important, your home price or mortgage rate?

According to Zillow, the national average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.64% right now. But keep in mind that averages can vary depending on where you live. For example, if you’re buying in a city with a high cost of living, rates could be higher.

Mortgage rates aren’t expected to go down in 2024. They might decrease in 2025, but it largely depends on the economy and political policies that arise next year.

Overall, mortgage rates have dropped over the last year. However, they have been increasing over the last several weeks. Today, mortgage rates have risen.

In many ways, securing a low mortgage refinance rate is similar to when you bought your home. Try to improve your credit score and lower your debt-to-income ratio (DTI). Refinancing into a shorter term will also land you a lower rate, though your monthly mortgage payments will be higher.

High dividend yields can be a warning sign for investors. Yields generally correlate negatively with stock price movements, after all, so higher yields often reflect a business’ underperformance and investors’ lack of confidence in its rebound potential. There are real dangers, in other words, involved in trying to boost your returns by reaching for yield.

One popular tactic that investors use in an attempt to minimize those risks is to focus on high-quality companies that might just be going through rough patches. That’s the thrust behind the “Dogs of the Dow” strategy, which involves purchasing the 10 highest-yielding stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) at the start of the year and holding onto them till the start of the next. Following that strategy has a two-fold benefit: It puts you into stocks with unusually high dividend yields, and it keeps you away from stocks that have rallied so much that they may carry potentially excessive premiums.

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Here’s a look at the Dow’s 10 highest dividend yields as we head toward the end of 2025. Keep in mind that an investor could earn a 1.8% yield by owning an index fund that tracked the whole 30-company index.

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

Verizon looks like the most tempting income-investment option, with a yield that’s approaching 7%. The telecom giant hasn’t simply trailed the market in 2024, though. Its shareholders have been losing ground for years. Many factors have combined to keep its total returns low, including the fact that consumers are holding onto their smartphones for much longer these days. It’s also difficult to boost sales in the competitive and largely saturated market for wireless and broadband services.

Most Wall Street pros expect Verizon’s revenue to rise by less than 1% this year and by less than 2% in 2025. Still, those figures don’t describe a broken business model, and Verizon is likely to continue paying hefty dividends in the coming years.

Chevron has a lot going for it as an income investment. The oil company’s highly efficient business produced nearly $10 billion of operating cash flow last quarter despite falling gas prices. It returned $8 billion to shareholders in the period as well — $3 billion via dividend payments and the remainder through stock buybacks.

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Between March 2022 and July 2023, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate 11 times. As a result, money market account (MMA) interest rates rose sharply.

However, the Fed slashed the federal funds rate by 50 basis points in September and another 25 basis points in November. So deposit rates — including money market account rates — have started falling. It’s more important than ever to compare MMA rates and ensure you earn as much as possible on your balance.

The national average money market account rate stands at 0.64%, according to the FDIC. This might not seem like much, but consider that just two years ago, it was just 0.23%, reflecting a sharp rise in a short period of time.

This is largely due to monetary policy decisions by the Fed, which began raising its benchmark rate in March 2022 to combat skyrocketing inflation. In fact, the Fed increased rates 11 times. But it finally cut its benchmark rate in September and Novemver, causing deposit account rates to start dropping

Even so, some of the top accounts are currently offering upwards of 5% APY. Since these rates may not be around much longer, consider opening a money market account now to take advantage of today’s high rates.

Here’s a look at some of the top MMA rates available today:

See our picks for the 10 best money market accounts available today>>

Additionally, the table below features some of the best savings and money market account rates available today from our verified partners.

The amount of interest you can earn from a money market account depends on the annual percentage rate (APY). This is a measure of your total earnings after one year when considering the base interest rate and how often interest compounds (money market account interest typically compounds daily).

Say you put $1,000 in an MMA at the average interest rate of 0.64% with daily compounding. At the end of one year, your balance would grow to $1,006.42 — your initial $1,000 deposit, plus just $6.42 in interest.

Now let’s say you choose a high-yield money market account that offers 5% APY instead. In this case, your balance would grow to $1,051.27 over the same period, which includes $51.27 in interest.

The more you deposit in a money market account, the more you stand to earn. If we took our same example of a money market account at 5% APY, but deposit $10,000, your total balance after one year would be $10,512.67, meaning you’d earn $512.67 in interest. ​​

Biotechs often need several years to realize their visions, even after they have a drug approved for the first time. There’s typically plenty of upside in store for enterprising and patient investors.

Here are two such opportunities that are ripe for buying today, provided that you’re willing to hold on to your shares for at least five years.

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With a bunch of gene therapy and gene editing programs in clinical trials, CRISPR Therapeutics (NASDAQ: CRSP) has an impressive resume already, but it’s just getting started. It’s currently in the process of building out the infrastructure it needs to administer and manufacture its first gene therapy to get approval, which is called Casgevy.

It hasn’t yet had time to register any revenue from sales of Casgevy. The odds are good that the medicine will make for a slow burn rather than a windfall profit, as the proceeds will be split with Vertex Pharmaceuticals, which will take the larger share of the pie. Also, the company’s buildout of authorized treatment centers (ATCs) is just beginning to pick up speed. Still, the proceeds from Casgevy’s launch will likely eventually be sufficient to cover most of CRISPR’s research and development (R&D) costs, which totaled more than $387 million in 2023 alone.

That will ensure that its pipeline will have the fuel it needs to advance clinical-stage programs toward approval, like its three cell therapy programs for treating cancers, or its gene editing program to treat atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in patients with elevated lipoprotein a (Lp(a)).

Some of its candidates, including its ASCVD program, have the potential to permanently improve the health of patients with just one dose thanks to their ability to correct problematic genes. While it will be at least a few years before those more powerful gene editing therapies get approved for sale, assuming they ever are. Their addressable market could be vast, especially considering approval would open the door to future projects seeking to improve or safeguard the health of already-healthy people.

And, when paired with the high probability of steady revenue starting to flow in soon, that possibility is another solid reason to buy the stock today.

Much like CRISPR Therapeutics, Iovance Biotherapeutics (NASDAQ: IOVA) is rolling out its first treatment, a cell therapy called Amtagvi. With revenue of $58.6 million in the third quarter, it expects sales of the medicine of as much as $165 million in 2024, and as much as $475 million for its 2025 fiscal year. The challenge of the moment is, once again much like of CRISPR, to build a network of ATCs where patients can undergo treatment.

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