Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) has disappointed a lot of investors since its public debut three years ago. The developer of electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), and it started trading at $9.90 and soared to a record high of $17.14 in February 2021. But today, Archer’s stock trades at about $4.

It crashed and burned as it missed its own pre-merger expectations, racked up steep losses, and issued a lot more shares to raise fresh cash. Rising interest rates also rattled investors and drove them away from its speculative pre-revenue business. However, analysts still have an average price target of $9.06 for Archer’s beaten-down stock. Should investors buy it today as it languishes more than 50% below that price?

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Archer’s Midnight eVTOL aircraft has a maximum speed of 150 miles per hour, a max range of 100 miles, and can carry a single pilot and four passengers. These electric aircraft are cheaper, cleaner, quieter, and easier to land in urban areas than helicopters, so they’re well suited for short-range air taxi services.

In early 2021, United Airlines placed a long-term $1 billion order for 200 of its Midnight aircraft. In 2022, it paid Archer a $10 million deposit for the first 100 aircraft. In 2023, automaker Stellantis invested in Archer and selected it as the exclusive contract manufacturer for its own eVTOL aircraft. Archer also secured additional deals with the U.S. Air Force and Future Flight Global.

Earlier this year, Soracle — a new joint venture formed by Japan Airlines and Sumimoto — followed United’s lead and placed a $500 million order for 100 Midnight aircraft. All of those deals could help Archer outlast its other competitors in the fragmented eVTOL market.

But for 2024, analysts expect Archer Aviation to generate less than $1 million in revenue as it racks up a net loss of $467 million. With an enterprise value of $1.43 billion, Archer trades at more than 2,000 times that sales estimate.

Prior to going public, Archer claimed it could produce its first 10 aircraft in 2024. But it only delivered its first Midnight aircraft to the U.S. Air Force this August, and it’s aiming to ramp up its annual production to 10 aircraft in 2025.

But looking further ahead, Archer plans to produce 48 aircraft in 2026, 252 aircraft in 2027, and 650 aircraft in 2028. It’s also establishing dedicated air taxi routes with its partners, and it expects to launch its first air taxi services in the UAE as early as the fourth quarter of 2025.

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