Month: November 2024

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A 0.25% interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s Nov. 7 meeting, just two days after the U.S. presidential election, is almost fully priced in by markets, with another similar cut likely in December as cooling inflation allows the Fed to gradually ease its policy stance.

The latest inflation data from September, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, showed a deceleration that aligns with the Fed’s 2% target, giving policymakers a green light to consider further easing.

The annual PCE inflation rate cooled to 2.1% in September, down from 2.3% in August, broadly matching analyst expectations.

Economists have largely welcomed the Fed’s most-watched inflation report, but with some caveats as consumer prices, especially in services, remain somewhat sticky.

Fed Nears Inflation Target, But Core Pressures Signal Caution

“The Fed’s inflation target is now essentially at 2%,” Joseph Brusuelas RSM US LLP principal & chief economist, commented on the data.

Extended to three decimal points, the PCE stands at 2.095%, with a month-over-month increase of 0.175%. Inflation is rising at a 1.4% rate on a three-month basis and 1.9% over six months, the expert explained.

“The Fed has re-established price stability,” Brusuelas added.

According to Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, the slowdown in core services prices, excluding housing, could keep the Fed on track for two rate cuts by the end of the year.

Yet, Roach also warned investors of potential “head fakes” in inflation data, as the path to sustained 2% inflation is expected to be long and difficult.

Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, echoed a similar sentiment, stating that while headline inflation has slowed close to the Fed’s target, the persistence of higher core inflation could still affect the central bank’s approach.

“The Fed will likely cut by a quarter percent at their post-election decision,” Adams said, though he added that the Fed must remain vigilant as core pressures are far from fully subdued.

However, some Fed watchers are more cautious about declaring victory just yet. Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, came in at 2.7% year-over-year, holding steady from August and surpassing estimates of 2.6%.

Mohamed El Erian, Allianz adviser and president at Queen’s College, commented “I suspect that, on the whole, this is not what the Federal Reserve expected data-wise when it suddenly decided last month to increase the pace of interest rate reductions from 25 basis points to 50 bps.”

El Erian added that the distribution of the price increases “will also capture the Fed’s attention.” Moreover, the robust 0.4% increase in real consumer spending, which suggests consumer demand is still resilient, is seen as a factor that could complicate the Fed’s efforts to maintain control over inflation.

Yet, he welcomed the reading in the Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the third quarter, which rose by 0.8%, the smallest gain since mid-2021.

Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, highlighted that the year-over-year core PCE print, which came in at 2.7%, indicates that inflation isn’t entirely under control.

“The Fed is still on a bumpy course in this last mile to quell inflation and declare victory,” Krosby said, emphasizing that the central bank’s journey to stable 2% inflation may face additional hurdles.

“The Fed will need to acknowledge that with still resilient consumer spending, higher wages from a series of successful strikes, and a solid labor market, they will need to adopt the gradual approach towards lowering rates,” Krosby added.

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Traders are eagerly awaiting October’s official jobs data, set for release on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET — widely viewed as the week’s most crucial economic event.

The Employment Situation report is expected to provide valuable insights into the resilience of the U.S. labor market, especially in light of recent disruptions from hurricanes, strikes and uncertainties surrounding the imminent U.S. elections.

What are economists forecasting, and how have markets responded to recent jobs reports?

See Also: US Economy Grows Less Than Expected In Q3, Yet Private Employment Soars By 233,000 In October

October Jobs Report: What Do Economists Expect?

The consensus among Wall Street economists is forecasting a sharp deceleration in the pace of employment growth in October.

Nonfarm payrolls are expected to slow down from 254,000 in September to 113,000 in October, an outcome that would represent the lowest monthly employment gain since April, suggesting that U.S. firms have hold back in their hiring plans.

“We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 100,000 in October after coming in at 254,000 in September. Although this is below consensus, we’d still view it as a solid print, since we estimate that Hurricane Milton and the Boeing strike temporarily lowered payrolls in October,” Bank of America economist Shruti Mishra stated.

According to Bank of America, Hurricane Milton’s landfall in Florida on Oct. 9, which coincided with the jobs survey week, likely weighed on payroll figures, particularly in sectors like leisure and hospitality. Additionally, lingering effects from Hurricane Helene, which struck in late September, may have added a slight drag on employment.

Bank of America analysts also noted that the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates a 41,000 increase in striking workers from September to October, largely driven by the Boeing Co. BA strike. Taken together, these factors could have reduced October payrolls by at least 50,000 jobs.

On the positive side, government payrolls may see a 25,000 boost due to temporary hiring for election-related roles.

Looking at other indicators in the October jobs report, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%, suggesting that the pace of job losses has also not advanced.

Wages are broadly expected to hold their recent trend, as average hourly earnings are expected to surge 0.3% month-over-month, down from 0.4% in September, and by 4.1% year-over-year as seen in the previous month.

Recent Data Shows Potential For Positive Employment Surprises

Earlier this week, the ADP National Employment report showed that private payrolls surged by 233,000 in October, sharply accelerating from 143,000 in September and well above economist expectations of 115,000, as tracked by TradingEconomics.

Nearly the whole increase in private employment came from services, with education, health services, trade, transportation, utilities and leisure and hospitality being the most active in the monthly increases.

The ADP data — which uses anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million U.S. employees – offered encouraging insights ahead of Friday’s official jobs report, suggesting the U.S. economy likely maintained robust job growth throughout the month.

“Even amid hurricane recovery, job growth was strong in October. As we round out the year, hiring in the U.S. is proving to be robust and broadly resilient,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP.

Stock Reactions To Recent Jobs Reports

The last three jobs reports have highlighted how market sentiment shifts depending on whether employment numbers come in hotter or cooler than expected.

In the July jobs report, released on Aug. 2, the U.S. economy added 114,000 jobs, later revised up to 144,000 — significantly below the consensus estimate of 175,000. On that day, the S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, dropped 1.9% as investors grew concerned about potential economic slowdown.

Another cooler-than-expected report arrived with the August jobs data, published on Sep. 6. The U.S. added 142,000 jobs in August, missing forecasts of 160,000. The S&P 500 responded with a 1.7% decline, reflecting ongoing worries about weakening labor market momentum.

In contrast, the September jobs report, released on Oct. 4, showed the U.S. economy added a robust 254,000 jobs, well above the revised 159,000 in August and far exceeding expectations of 140,000. This marked the strongest job growth in six months, significantly above the prior 12-month average of 203,000.

The S&P 500 responded positively, rallying 0.9% on the day as investors saw this as a sign of resilience in the labor market.

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The SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the largest physically backed gold ETF, saw a significant influx of capital this month as economic and policy uncertainties surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election drive investors toward safe-haven assets.

GLD’s assets under management reached $79.7 billion as of Oct. 30, bolstered by $1.8 billion in net inflows for October — the fund’s strongest monthly inflow since March 2022, data from TradingView shows.

Additionally, the ETF notched its fourth consecutive month of gains and its eleventh positive month out of the last 13, with a remarkable 50% rally from the lows of October 2023.

Gold Demand Surges As ETF Investments Soar

Global demand for gold surged 5% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2024, reaching 1,313 tonnes, a record level for the third quarter, according to a report from the World Gold Council released this week.

This increase reflects a rising appetite for the precious metal as macroeconomic concerns and market uncertainty drive both institutional and retail investors toward gold-backed assets.

Gold prices touched new record highs throughout the quarter as demand continued to build.

A key factor behind this growth was a resurgence in gold ETF investment, with global gold ETF inflows reaching 95 tonnes in the third quarter, the first quarter of positive inflows since the first quarter of 2022.

This marked a sharp year-over-year turnaround from the third quarter of 2023, when ETFs saw outflows of 139 tonnes.

“Gold is continuing its relentless rally and may even have the $3,000 level in its sights before too long,” said Michael Gayed, CFA.

The pace of central bank buying slowed to 186 tonnes in the third quarter, yet year-to-date purchases remain on track with 2022 levels, the World Gold Council wrote.

Central banks, particularly in emerging market economies, continue to diversify away from the U.S. dollar, reflecting a strong and steady institutional demand for gold as a reserve asset.

Fiscal, Geopolitical Uncertainty Sparks Investor Rush to Gold

Gold prices have surged 33% in 2024, positioning the commodity for its third-strongest year in the last 50. Notably, this rally has defied traditional drivers like falling Treasury yields or a weakening dollar that typically boost gold.

Instead, two primary factors are fueling investor demand for the safe-haven asset.

The first driver is concern over the U.S. government’s fiscal policies, which some fear could trigger renewed inflationary pressures.

“Gold is rising as the market begins to price in the likelihood of a Fed forced to cut rates further, despite persistent inflation,” said Otavio Costa, macro strategist at Crescat Capital.

Bank of America analysts agree, noting that regardless of the outcome of the upcoming presidential election, both political parties seem reluctant to tackle the precarious budget deficit and soaring national debt.

“Gold may be the last perceived safe haven asset standing,” wrote Bank of America commodity analyst Michael Widmer, emphasizing the risks posed by unchecked government spending.

A second key factor is the evolving role of gold as “a hedge against U.S. economic sanctions.”

Veteran Wall Street investor Ed Yardeni recently described gold as an asset that can protect nations from Western financial controls.

After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. and its allies froze Russia’s foreign exchange reserves held abroad. Since then, there have been proposals to seize nearly $300 billion of these assets to support Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction — a move that has sent a clear signal to other nations.

“China and other countries have been increasing their allocations of gold in their countries’ international reserves,” Yardeni added, suggesting that gold is becoming a preferred reserve asset for nations looking to insulate themselves from potential U.S.-led sanctions.

By holding more gold, countries can reduce their dependence on assets vulnerable to Western financial controls, diversifying away from the U.S. dollar.

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