VIX Index Notches Third-Strongest October Spike In An Election Year, S&P 500 Snaps 5-Month Winning Streak: Why Volatility 'Is Unlikely To Pull Back,' Analyst Says
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the market’s “fear gauge,” saw a sharp 34% increase in October, signaling intensified investor concern as the U.S. presidential election looms.
This spike marks the third-strongest October VIX increase for an election year, with only 2008 and 2020 witnessing larger jumps.
Excluding the extraordinary 52% spike in October 2008, driven by the financial crisis, and the 44% rise in October 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, October 2024’s surge marks the highest volatility for an election-year October since the VIX’s index inception in 1990.
Election Year | CBOE VIX (% change) | VIX Level (Close on 31/10) |
---|---|---|
October 1992 | 13.1 | 16.15 |
October 1996 | 6.8 | 18.11 |
October 2000 | 14.9 | 23.63 |
October 2004 | 22.0 | 16.27 |
October 2008 | 52.0 | 59.89 |
October 2012 | 18.2 | 18.6 |
October 2016 | 28.4 | 17.6 |
October 2020 | 44.2 | 38.02 |
October 2024 | 34.1 | 22.43 |
Political uncertainty is a significant driver of this volatility, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump neck-and-neck in polling data, though Trump holds a substantial lead in betting markets.
Market-implied odds from CFTC-regulated platform Kalshi currently give Trump a 57% chance of re-election.
Concerns over the candidates’ fiscal policies and the country’s ballooning national debt levels are adding to market tension, as neither candidate has outlined a plan to tackle the fiscal risk.
S&P 500 Ends Five-Month Rally
Alongside political anxiety, disappointing earnings from major tech companies fueled a late-month selloff.
The S&P 500, as measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, fell in October, snapping a five-month winning streak. Microsoft Corp. MSFT led the decline, dropping 6% on Thursday — its worst single-day performance in over two years — as guidance over 2025 revenue disappointed earnings.
Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, highlighted that mega-cap tech’s forward guidance disappointed markets, particularly around AI spending and the slower-than-expected integration of AI into Microsoft’s cloud services. “The market overall has been disappointed with mega tech guidance,” she said, highlighting the potential impact on market sentiment as the election draws near.
Analysts Warn of Further Volatility
Many analysts see no immediate end to the current bout of market anxiety.
Michael Gayed, CFA, commented, “I think the markets could be a little more prepared for a Trump win this time around, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the VIX start to pick up again.”
David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, echoed this sentiment, warning that “volatility remains elevated and is unlikely to pull back until there’s certainty over the result of next week’s Presidential Election.”
Morrison added that a decisive election outcome could alleviate some market fears, but with polling data as tight as it is, uncertainty is likely to persist.
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Progress Completes Acquisition of ShareFile
ShareFile’s AI-powered, document-centric collaboration platform expands Progress’ industry-leading product portfolio and marks a major milestone in the company’s Total Growth Strategy
BURLINGTON, Mass., Oct. 31, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Progress PRGS, the trusted provider of AI-powered infrastructure software, today announced the completion of the acquisition of ShareFile, a business unit of Cloud Software Group, Inc., providing a SaaS-native, AI-powered, document-centric collaboration platform, focusing on industry segments including business and professional services, financial services, industrial and healthcare.
“This acquisition marks the latest major milestone in Progress’ Total Growth Strategy, which is built on three pillars: Invest and Innovate, Acquire and Integrate and Drive Customer Success. The addition of ShareFile significantly enhances our product capabilities, benefiting our customers and meaningfully expanding the customer base we serve,” said Yogesh Gupta, CEO of Progress. “We are thrilled to welcome ShareFile customers and employees to the Progress community and look forward to a bright future with ShareFile now part of Progress.”
Progress products help organizations to develop, deploy and manage responsible AI-powered applications and experiences. ShareFile fits strategically with Progress’ Digital Experience portfolio to enable customers to deliver more efficient and effective client and team collaboration, while simplifying the sharing of documents and prioritizing security.
As previously announced, Progress acquired ShareFile for a purchase price of $875 million, funded with a combination of cash and Progress’ existing revolving credit facility. ShareFile is expected to add more than $240M in annual revenue and more than 86,000 customers to Progress.
About Progress
Progress PRGS empowers organizations to achieve transformational success in the face of disruptive change. Our software enables our customers to develop, deploy and manage responsible AI-powered applications and experiences with agility and ease. Customers get a trusted provider in Progress, with the products, expertise and vision they need to succeed. Over 4 million developers and technologists at hundreds of thousands of enterprises depend on Progress. Learn more at www.progress.com.
Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains statements that are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Progress has identified some of these forward-looking statements with words like “believe,” “may,” “could,” “would,” “might,” “should,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “target,” “anticipate” and “continue,” the negative of these words, other terms of similar meaning or the use of future dates. Risks, uncertainties and other important factors that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements include: uncertainties as to the effects of disruption from the acquisition of ShareFile (i.e., making it more difficult to maintain relationships with employees, licensees, other business partners or governmental entities); other business effects, including the effects of industry, economic or political conditions outside of Progress’ or ShareFile’s control; transaction costs; actual or contingent liabilities; uncertainties as to whether anticipated synergies will be realized; and uncertainties as to whether ShareFile’s business will be successfully integrated with Progress’ business. For further information regarding risks and uncertainties associated with Progress’ business, please refer to Progress’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended November 30, 2023. Progress undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this press release.
Press Inquiries: Erica McShane VP, Corporate Communications Progress Software +1 781-280-4000 pr@progress.com |
Investor Relations: Mike Micciche SVP, Investor Relations Progress Software +1 781-280-4000 Investor-relations@progress.com |
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IPX1031 Spins Its Frightfully Fun 10-31 Day Video On 10/31
Get Ready to Crawl with Excitement!
CHICAGO, Oct. 31, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — National 1031 Qualified Intermediary leader, Investment Property Exchange Services, Inc. (IPX1031) celebrates October 31st with its Day of the 10-31 video. Halloween is here, and there is no more fitting day in the 1031 industry for a fun video showcasing what IPX1031 does best – helping you navigate the web of tax deferral. Whether you’re a real estate investor or a Halloween lover, IPX1031’s Itsy Bitsy Spider video will be a treat for you.
The video features the classic nursery rhyme character of “The Itsy Bitsy Spider,” but with a twist – the spider climbs up the tax deferral process. You’ll laugh, you’ll learn, and you might even scream – as this video alludes to the enticing benefits of tax deferral through a 1031 Exchange.
“Through a fun and lively video, we wanted to show real estate owners and investors how strategic tax planning can be advantageous by utilizing 1031 Exchanges,” said John Wunderlich, IPX1031 President.
Halloween can be frightening, but 1031 Exchanges don’t have to be. IPX1031 works with your advisors to make the 1031 Exchange process simple and stress-free. Don’t be afraid to check out IPX1031’s website or social media channels for even more 10-31 Day info on 1031 Exchanges. www.ipx1031.com
Because who doesn’t love a little extra deferral?
About IPX1031
Investment Property Exchange Services, Inc. (IPX1031) is the largest and one of the oldest Qualified Intermediaries in the United States. As a wholly owned subsidiary of Fidelity National Financial FNF, a Fortune 500 company, IPX1031 provides industry leading security for exchange funds as well as expertise and experience in facilitating all types of 1031 Exchanges. IPX1031’s nationwide staff, which includes industry experts, veteran attorneys and accountants, are available to provide answers and guidance to clients and their legal and tax advisors. For more information about IPX1031 visit www.ipx1031.com.
For more information, contact:
Cindi Marinez, VP, National Marketing Director
cindi.marinez@ipx1031.com
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SOURCE IPX1031
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