Shares of connected TV platform company Roku (NASDAQ: ROKU) jumped Wednesday morning after Needham analyst Laura Martin said she believes that Roku will be acquired at a hefty premium in 2025. As of 11:30 a.m. ET, Roku stock was up by 10.5%.

For context, Amazon began airing limited ads on its Prime Video service in 2024, and it plans to increase the amount of commercials it shows in 2025, making use of the vast trove of retail data it has from its e-commerce platform. Likely in response, Walmart decided to acquire Roku rival Vizio, a deal that closed Tuesday. Now, Walmart, too, will be able to make use of its consumer data to help it sell effective advertising on connected TV.

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As retailers look to better monetize their businesses through advertising, having consumer data and advertising reach are important. As of Q3, Roku devices were being used in more than 85 million households, and users streamed 32 billion hours of video in that quarter alone. Direct access to an audience of that scale would be extremely valuable to some company out there.

Martin predicts that Roku will be acquired for a “large premium.” Traders on Wednesday appear to be betting that she’s right, and that Roku could command a much better price from a potential acquirer than its current market cap.

This isn’t the first time Roku has been floated as a possible acquisition target. But the company itself hasn’t done anything to indicate that such rumors and speculations are credible. Therefore, I believe that investors shouldn’t give any weight to this possibility when deciding whether to buy or sell Roku stock.

On the contrary, Roku’s shareholders should fix their eyes on its business. Number of households, average revenue per user, and operating expenses remain the key metrics to watch. And considering that retail giant Walmart is now a major player in the connected TV space, it may be more important than ever for investors to watch these metrics.

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