Warren Buffett Sends a $150 Billion Warning to Stock Investors as the S&P 500 Races Past Record Highs
The stock market is headed into the final month of a banner year. The benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has advanced 27% in 2024, putting the index on pace for one of its best performances of the 21st century. Indeed, the S&P 500 has raced past more than four dozen record highs year to date amid excitement about artificial intelligence and interest rate cuts, and it closed at a fresh high on Dec. 2.
Investors must now answer a difficult question: Is it smart to buy stocks with the S&P 500 at its record high? On one hand, the market has historically performed well from highs. From January 1970 to December 2023, the S&P 500 returned an average 9.4% during the 12 months following a record close, but it returned just 9% annually during the entire period, according to JPMorgan Chase strategist Madison Faller.
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On the other hand, the tremendous run-up in the S&P 500 has left many stocks trading at historically rich valuations, and Warren Buffett recently sent investors a $150 billion warning. Here are the important details.
Warren Buffett is regarded as one of the world’s foremost investors. Under his leadership, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) has seen its Class A shares increase at 20% annually since the mid-1960s, compounding twice as fast as the S&P 500. Numerous acquisitions and stock purchases engineered by Buffett contributed to that upside, including positions in Coca-Cola and American Express bought for pennies on the dollar.
Today, Buffett runs the vast majority of Berkshire Hathaway’s $300 billion stock portfolio, and recent capital allocation decisions can be interpreted as a grim warning for investors. Specifically, Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks in the last seven quarters, and the cumulative net sales during that period exceeded $150 billion. The logical conclusion: Buffett is struggling to find reasonably priced stocks after the market’s run-up.
The S&P 500 trades at 22 times forward earnings, a premium to the five-year average of 19.6 times forward earnings and near the highest valuation since April 2021, according to FactSet Research. High forward P/E ratios correlate strongly with poor performance over long periods, and the current multiple implies an annual return of just 3% over the next three years, says Chief Economist Torsten Slok at Apollo Global Management.
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