If you blinked this week, you might’ve missed a market mood swing. From economic jitters to tech-fueled euphoria and back to policy-driven nerves, this week’s action packed more plot twists than a Netflix thriller. Whether you’re a trader, investor, or casual market watcher, here are five charts that made the market narrative crystal clear – and what they might be telling us about next week.
S&P 500 Daily Chart – A Wild Ride with a Soft Landing
Let’s start with the S&P 500, because this week’s action was all about sentiment rotation. Monday opened with a dip after the ISM Manufacturing Index hit a contractionary reading – yet again. Investors spooked by soft data sent the benchmark index sliding nearly 1%. But things turned around quickly.
By midweek, earnings from key players like Microsoft and Tesla offered just enough optimism to spark a rebound. The real story, though, wasn’t the close – it was the volume. Wednesday’s spike in trading volume marked one of the biggest days since May, signaling institutional hands were back at work.
By Friday, the Fed’s June meeting minutes dropped. A softer-than-expected tone on future rate hikes helped cap off the week with another late-day rally. The S&P finished up around 0.9% on the week – modest, but meaningful given the rocky start.
Nasdaq vs. Russell 2000 – Growth and Small-Cap Divergence
If one chart could sum up the bifurcation in the U.S. equity market, it’s this: Nasdaq ripping higher, while the Russell 2000 lags. The Nasdaq gained more than 2.5% for the week, driven by another wave of tech bullishness. Meanwhile, the small-cap-focused Russell 2000 dipped about 0.8%.
That’s a wide divergence – and it says a lot about where investor confidence lies. Big Tech names like Apple , Nvidia , and Meta continue to attract capital, while economically sensitive small-caps remain weighed down by weak data and margin pressures.
This divergence underscores one of the market’s central tensions: macro weakness vs. megacap strength. It’s a split-screen market, and the Russell’s underperformance suggests risk appetite isn’t as broad-based as headlines might suggest.
VIX – Spikes, Dips, and Calm in the Chaos
The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, told its own story this week. It opened around 13.5, jumped to 15.2 on Tuesday’s soft economic data, and settled back below 14 by Friday. That temporary spike was the highest since early June, but it was short-lived.
The takeaway? Traders are still a little edgy – but not panicking. There’s cautious optimism, even amid the occasional scare. Option premiums rose briefly midweek but dropped as earnings and Fed signals cooled nerves.
VIX action like this typically signals short-term traders bracing for volatility – but not betting on a breakdown. It’s also a sign the market still expects the Fed to remain data-dependent without leaning too hawkish.
Oil and Gold – Commodities React to Macro and Geopolitics
Crude oil rallied nearly 3% on the week, driven by a mix of factors: OPEC+ supply chatter, rising Middle East tensions, and a stronger-than-expected Chinese PMI print on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed above $78/barrel, putting it back near key resistance levels.
Gold, on the other hand, acted like a classic risk-off asset midweek – popping nearly 2% during the Tuesday slump – before retreating back to around $2,340/oz by Friday.
Commodities continue to be a barometer for both inflation expectations and geopolitical anxiety. This week, they played both roles – first as safe havens, then as a sign of reawakening growth hopes.
Treasury Yields – The Fed’s Tightrope Act
Bond markets sent mixed signals. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped about 8 basis points after Fed minutes suggested no immediate cuts are coming. The 10-year yield followed, rising around 12 basis points midweek.
But by Friday, cooling inflation expectations and soft retail data helped flatten the yield curve again. The 10Y settled just under 4.35%, while the 2Y hovered at 4.66%.
What’s the message here? Investors are torn. Rate cut hopes aren’t dead – but they’re definitely delayed. Markets are watching every data point with eagle eyes, and the bond market’s subtle moves are telling us that positioning is fragile.
So, What’s Next?
This week’s charts reveal a market caught between old and new narratives.
- The S&P is resilient but twitchy.
- The Nasdaq vs. Russell split shows tech is still king – but not everyone is invited to the party.
- The VIX whispers volatility, not screams.
- Commodities are churning on both macro and geopolitical risk.
- And yields are trying to decode a very complicated Fed.
Heading into next week, traders should keep their eyes on Thursday’s CPI report and more Fed speakers. Another quiet inflation print could reinforce the “soft landing” story. But if we get a surprise jump, watch for volatility to come roaring back – especially in small caps and rate-sensitive sectors.
The countdown to the August 1 tariff deadline is also ticking. That’s another potential catalyst for traders to price in (or ignore at their peril).
Pump Radar
Stock Alerts