Bettors on the social prediction market Manifold believed late technologist Len Sassaman to be Bitcoin's BTC/USD mysterious creator Satoshi Nakamoto, as estimates on the play money-powered platform fluctuate wildly.
What happened: At the time of writing, Sassaman’s odds were 26%, as the cryptographer and privacy champion emerged as the platform’s new favorite.
However, only a few hours ago, the odds were in favor of Peter Todd, the Bitcoin Core engineer identified as Satoshi in the recent HBO documentary “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery.” Todd has categorically denied these claims.
Sassasman's odds reached an all-time high of 46% when the trailer of the documentary was released in the first week of October. This was also the time when punters on cryptocurrency-based Polymarket bet heavily in favor of him.
Todd's odds reached 71% on Oct. 14, before nearly halving five days later, and 11% as of this writing.
Why It Matters: Manifold is a social prediction market where users can bet on events and compete with friends for free.
Users can either place bets through "Mana", a play-money currency, or “Sweepcash," which can be redeemed for real money.
A user, John Vandivier, while replying to an X post by economist Robin Hanson, said that estimates on the platform aren't stable, noting how odds shifted in favor of Sassasman from Todd in no time.
Photo via Shutterstock
Read Next:
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
