Amazon is doubling down on Prime Day. The retail giant’s flagship shopping event kicks off on July 8 and will run for 96 hours—twice as long as last year’s version. That extension has Bank of America making a bold prediction: Amazon could generate over $21 billion in gross merchandise volume (GMV) during the event.
“Extending the savings window suggests that Amazon has greater retail logistics capacity to offer promotions, and that inventory availability is not a constraint,” Bank of America analysts wrote in a research note.
If the forecast proves accurate, it would represent nearly a 60% increase from last year’s Prime Day and account for more than 10% of Amazon’s projected third-quarter GMV. The firm anticipates sales from Amazon’s own inventory, known as first-party (1P), to grow 55% year over year to $11.5 billion, while third-party (3P) sales could climb 67% to $10 billion.
Amazon shares are flat year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500’s 6% gain. Bank of America maintains a price target of $248 on the stock, implying a 13% upside from current levels.
BoA analysts say the extended sale reflects advancements in Amazon’s robotics, AI capabilities, and inventory placement. The company has been enhancing its AI-powered shopping tools, including Alexa+ savings trackers, personalized deal alerts, and its new virtual assistant, Rufus.
Despite optimism around the event, founder Jeff Bezos drew attention this week after unloading $737 million worth of stock, according to recent SEC filings. That brings his total 2025 share sales to over $8.5 billion.
Still, analysts remain confident in the stock. Amazon’s advertising and AWS segments continue to be strong growth drivers, and Prime Day is widely viewed as a key strategy to attract new Prime subscribers, boost ad revenue, and strengthen Amazon’s position against competitors like Walmart, Target, and Best Buy.
However, risks remain. A longer Prime Day could pressure third-quarter margins, particularly if customers concentrate spending in lower-margin categories or if steep promotions eat into profits. Tariff-related headwinds—especially on electronics and imported items—also linger as potential disruptors.
Beyond retail, Prime Day is expected to boost Amazon’s advertising revenue, particularly as the company pushes more inventory through Prime Video and expands its video ad offerings. Looking forward, investors will be watching how effectively Amazon converts Prime Day excitement into lasting customer engagement.
Meanwhile, Amazon is also investing $4 billion through 2026 to improve rural delivery services, aiming to expand coverage to 4,000 U.S. locations.
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