Apple Stock Bulls Are Losing Confidence In iPhone Upgrade Cycle
Wall Street analysts are cutting their forecasts for Apple (AAPL) iPhone sales this year as the consumer electronics giant delays adding artificial intelligence features. Those revisions have weighed on Apple stock.
"With 2025 iPhone growth expectations now 1% (down from 7% just two quarters ago) and key catalysts around Apple Intelligence Siri upgrades now delayed, we think bulls will lose confidence in any upgrade cycle hope," KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brandon Nispel said in a client note Thursday.
↑ X How Long Do Market Corrections Last? These Signs Show When To Get Back In.Nispel reiterated his underweight, or sell, rating on Apple stock with a price target of 200.
In afternoon trades on the stock market today, Apple stock fell more than 2% to 211.12. Apple is on pace for its fourth decline in as many trading days.
In addition to soft iPhone sales, Apple faces risks around tariffs and potential changes to its lucrative internet search deal with Google due to the pending Department of Justice antitrust case, Nispel said.
Nispel rates Apple stock as underweight because he believes iPhone upgrade rates are stagnating and Apple is losing share in the China handset market.
"Apple's premium valuation (is) unwarranted given AAPL's inferior growth," he said.
On Wednesday, investment bank Morgan Stanley cut its price target on Apple stock, citing a lack of compelling AI features to drive iPhone sales.
Analyst Erik Woodring lowered his price target to 252 from 275. But he kept his overweight, or buy, rating on Apple stock.
Apple Stock Pressured By iPhone Forecast Cuts
"The delayed rollout of a more advanced Siri means Apple will have fewer features to accelerate iPhone upgrade rates in fiscal 2026," Woodring said in a client note. He also factored in "a degree of tariff headwinds" in calendar year 2025.
Woodring reduced his forecast for iPhone shipments in calendar years 2025 and 2026 by 1% and 5%, respectively. He now expects Apple to ship 230 million iPhones this year, flat vs. 2024, and 243 million units next year, up 6%.
With the lower iPhone shipments and tariff impact, Woodring also cut his fiscal 2026 revenue and earnings-per-share targets by 5% to 6%.
Last Friday, Bloomberg reported that Apple has delayed the release of an artificial intelligence-powered upgrade to its Siri digital assistant.
Siri Upgrade 'No. 1' Feature Buyers Look For
The Siri AI upgrade previously had been planned for release in April. Now it might not be released until next year, Bloomberg said.
An upgraded Siri personal assistant is "the No. 1 AI feature prospective iPhone upgraders are interested in," Woodring said.
On Monday, Citi analyst Atif Malik removed his firm's "90-day positive catalyst watch" on Apple stock, citing the Siri upgrade delay. However, he maintained his buy rating on Apple stock with a price target of 275.
The Siri upgrade delay likely will hurt iPhone sales, Malik said. He lowered his 2025 and 2026 iPhone unit sales estimates to 232 million and 244 million, respectively, to reflect the delay in the AI-enabled Siri.
Meanwhile, Apple stock is still on the IBD Tech Leaders list.
Follow Patrick Seitz on X, formerly Twitter, at @IBD_PSeitz for more stories on consumer technology, software and semiconductor stocks.
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