Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.
While many investors like to look for momentum in stocks, this can be very tough to define. There is a lot of debate surrounding which metrics are the best to focus on and which are poor quality indicators of future performance. The Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.
Below, we take a look at International Flavors IFF, which currently has a Momentum Style Score of A. We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score, like price change and earnings estimate revisions.
It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. International Flavors currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.
Set to Beat the Market?
In order to see if IFF is a promising momentum pick, let's examine some Momentum Style elements to see if this ingredients producer for food, cosmetics and consumer products industries holds up.
Looking at a stock's short-term price activity is a great way to gauge if it has momentum, since this can reflect both the current interest in a stock and if buyers or sellers have the upper hand at the moment. It is also useful to compare a security to its industry, as this can help investors pinpoint the top companies in a particular area.
For IFF, shares are up 3.91% over the past week while the Zacks Consumer Products - Staples industry is down 1.11% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 7.45% compares favorably with the industry's 2.61% performance as well.
While any stock can see a spike in price, it takes a real winner to consistently outperform the market. Shares of International Flavors have increased 8.01% over the past quarter, and have gained 48.37% in the last year. On the other hand, the S&P 500 has only moved 3.12% and 23.92%, respectively.
Investors should also pay attention to IFF's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. IFF is currently averaging 1,065,084 shares for the last 20 days.
Earnings Outlook
The Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with IFF.
Over the past two months, 8 earnings estimates moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost IFF's consensus estimate, increasing from $3.87 to $4.22 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 8 estimates have moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.
Bottom Line
Taking into account all of these elements, it should come as no surprise that IFF is a #2 (Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of A. If you've been searching for a fresh pick that's set to rise in the near-term, make sure to keep International Flavors on your short list.
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