Is Moderna Stock a Sell as RFK Jr. Reportedly Mulls A Massive Funding Pull?
Moderna (MRNA) stock is under pressure, again, as new Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. reportedly mulls pulling the company’s federal funding to develop a bird flu vaccine.
Chief Executive Stephane Bancel said recently that Moderna would work “productively” with the Trump administration.
“Vaccines are a very important piece of keeping people healthy and we look forward to having those discussions,” Bancel said on the company’s Feb. 14 earnings conference call with analysts.
But reports emerged recently that the Department of Health and Human Services it considering pulling the $590 million contract Moderna received in late January to develop a bird flu vaccine. The funding came from the Center for Biological Advance Research and Development Authority, a division of HHS. The funding was awarded several weeks before Kennedy was confirmed as the HHS secretary. Kennedy is a widely known vaccine skeptic who has called into question their safety.
The Food and Drug Administration also unexpectedly canceled the annual meeting scheduled for March to select the strains to target in this year’s flu vaccines. Moderna is testing a standalone flu shot in a two-season test that could wrap this year.
Moderna also reported steep losses for the fourth quarter, but topped sales expectations. The company kept its sales outlook for 2025.
So, all in all, is Moderna stock a buy or a sell today?
During the fourth quarter, Moderna lost $2.91 per share on $966 million in sales. Losses flipped from a year-earlier gain of 55 cents and missed forecasts for a narrower loss. Sales beat forecasts, but fell 66% year over year.
Both its products — Covid vaccine Spikevax and the respiratory syncytial virus vaccine called mResvia — beat sales projections. Spikevax generated $923 million in sales, ahead of calls for $909 million, while mResvia brought in $15 million in sales. Analysts polled by FactSet forecasted $13 million.
Moderna kept its outlook for 2025. It expects $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion in sales this year. The midpoint of the guidance is far below analysts’ call for $2.32 billion.
“While the third quarter represented an encouraging start to the company’s redesigned path on the cost-cutting side, today’s updates seemingly cloud the trajectory,” William Blair’s Minter said in a Jan. 13 report to clients following Moderna’s presentation at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference.
Moderna stock fell by 17% that day.
The company is working hard to expand its portfolio.
Moderna’s technology focuses on helping the body create specific messenger RNA, or mRNA. When the mRNA sees a specific target in the body — like the spike protein on the coronavirus that causes Covid — it latches on, preventing the virus from spreading in the body.
Moderna expects the FDA to make an approval decision on its next-generation Covid vaccine in late May. The company is also working to expand its RSV vaccine to adults younger than age 60 and expects to have pivotal test data from its norovirus vaccine later this year.
Further, Moderna is working on a cancer vaccine in partnership with Merck (MRK). In this case, the mRNA grabs onto a specific target bespoke to each patient’s cancer. The companies are testing the cancer vaccine in combination with Merck’s blockbuster drug, Keytruda. Moderna stock surged more than 8% after Oracle (ORCL) Chairman Larry Ellison said in January that mRNA-based cancer vaccines could be developed in under 48 hours with the help of artificial intelligence.
But sales are expected to hit a floor this year. Analysts don’t expect Moderna to become profitable, on a strict, as-reported basis, until 2029.
Further, the company’s cytomegalovirus vaccine study missed its mark in a recent study. Cytomegalovirus, or CMV, doesn’t usually carry symptoms. But it can cause fever, sore throat, swollen glands, stomach pain and jaundice.
Moderna Stock’s Bearish Ratings
Moderna stock is showing bearish fundamentals and technicals.
First, shares are trading below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, according to MarketSurge. Second, the stock is not forming a base for investors to watch. Even if it does, it will likely face a ceiling at its key moving averages.
Shares also have a poor IBD Digital Relative Strength Rating of 6. This means Moderna stock ranks in the bottom 6% of all stocks when it comes to 12-month performance. Moderna shares also have a low Composite Rating of 17, putting them in the bottom one-fifth of all stocks when it comes to technical and fundamental measures.
Its EPS Rating is its highest rating at a still-low 28. And Moderna is on track for years of losses. The company is working on cutting its costs and now expects to reduce its costs by $1 billion this year and $500 million next year.
Moderna stock peaked at 497.49 in August 2021, at the height of the Covid pandemic. Since then, the stock has fallen precipitously, down more than 93% over the past four years.
Despite a promising move after Ellison noted the potential for AI in cancer vaccine development, Moderna stock isn’t a buy.
In fact, shares were definitively a sell on Jan. 13 when they tumbled below their 50-day line. Though shares have made moves to retake their key line, Moderna stock has mostly closed below its 50-day moving average this year.
It could take several years for Moderna’s pipeline to really pan out, analysts say. In the meantime, its Covid vaccine has yet to hit a bottom and its RSV vaccine is coming from behind in competition with Pfizer (PFE) and GSK (GSK).
To find the best stocks to buy and watch, check out IBD Stock Lists. Make sure to also keep tabs on stocks to buy or sell.
Follow Allison Gatlin on X/Twitter at @AGatlin_IBD.
Consumer Confidence Measure Plunges to Lowest in 12 Years
Americans continue to sour on the U.S. economic outlook as uncertainty around President Trump’s policies and higher prices weigh on consumer sentiment.
The latest consumer confidence index reading from the Conference Board was 92.9 in March, below the 100.1 seen in February and the lowest level in more than four years. The expectations index, which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, ticked down to 65.2 from 72.9 and remained below the threshold of 80 — which typically signals recession ahead — for the second straight month.
This marked a 12-year low for the expectations index, which was driven in part by consumers’ expectations of their financial situation hitting its lowest level in more than two years.
“One of the most significant developments that we have seen was a decline in financial situation expectations from consumers,” Yelena Shulyatyeva, Conference Board senior U.S. economist, told Yahoo Finance. “So that seems to suggest that all this uncertainty around economic outlook is really starting to weigh on consumers’ assessment of how they will fare going forward.”
The Conference Board noted in the release that of the five components that contribute to consumer confidence, only the respondents’ assessment of current labor market conditions moved higher in March. Future expectations were particularly dour, with consumers’ inflation expectations rising to 6.2% in March, up from 5.8% in February. For the first time since 2023, consumers turned negative on the stock market outlook, with just 37.4% of respondents expecting stocks to rise over the next year.
Meanwhile, those expecting a lower income in the next 12 months rose to 15.5% from 12.8% in February, marking the highest level of respondents expecting a lower income in the next year since November 2022.
“This data suggests that consumers lack confidence in their job security such that they can ask for higher wages,” Jefferies U.S. economist Tom Simons wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. “The direction of travel in this indicator is concerning, but the levels aren’t quite at thresholds that we expect would trigger big shifts in spending behavior.”
Tuesday’s reading is one of several that have shown weakening expectations for the economy among consumers. The growing market fear is that consumers feeling worse about the economic outlook could prompt more cautious spending.
But Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and economists question whether readings in the “soft” survey data like the consumer confidence index will translate to a deterioration in the “hard” economic data like real consumer spending.
“The relationship between survey data and actual economic activity hasn’t been very tight,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference on March 19. “There have been plenty of times where people are saying very downbeat things about the economy and then going out and buying a new car. But we don’t know that that will be the case here. We will be watching very carefully for signs of weakness in the real data.”
For now, economists have largely argued that while the overall growth outlook for the U.S. economy may now be weaker than initially thought coming into the year, there isn’t a clear sign of a significant slowdown.
In a research note to clients on Sunday, Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist wrote that “all the crises about recession” are “probably” overdone. He pointed to January’s decline in retail sales spooking investors, only to then be reversed by a gain in February.
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
Brazilian Cosmetics Group Natura to Revamp Structure, Leadership
SAO PAULO (Reuters)—Brazilian cosmetic group Natura announced on Thursday a leadership shake-up and a restructuring proposal that would swap out the entity listed on the local stock exchange.
Under the plan, set to be voted on by shareholders on April 25, the currently listed holding company Natura & Co will be integrated into its Natura Cosmeticos subsidiary, which would then become the group’s parent firm with shares listed on Brazil’s stock exchange.
The revamp should lead to a more efficient structure while providing shareholders with value by “enabling a future distribution of Natura Cosmeticos’s profits,” Natura & Co and Natura Cosmeticos said in a joint securities filing.
The deal reverses a move made by the group in 2019, after Natura had bought Avon Products in an acquisition that created a global beauty powerhouse. Avon’s U.S. business, which was never owned by Natura, was not a part of the deal.
Natura rapidly grew through high-profile acquisitions over the last decade, including the purchase of Avon, The Body Shop, and Aesop, but it struggled with profitability. That led to a quest for deleveraging in recent years, with management shifting to focus on Natura and Avon’s operations in Latin America.
The firm said in the filing that Natura & Co’s CEO, Fabio Barbosa, and Chief Financial Officer Guilherme Castellan will leave their roles. Barbosa will be named chairman of the new parent firm, while Castellan will leave the group.
Barbosa, who has been Natura & Co’s CEO since 2022, oversaw the sale of brands Aesop and The Body Shop.
The group repeated on Thursday that it was still weighing alternatives to its Avon business outside Latin America, which could include selling the unit.
Joao Paulo Ferreira will stay on as Natura Cosmeticos’ CEO, and Silvia Vilas Boas will remain CFO, the filing said. Under the proposal, both would then lead the new parent firm.
Castellan is set to stay on through May 12 to aid in the transition.
The group said the leadership changes are backed by its founders and controlling shareholders, who will remain on the board of the new listed entity.
Reporting by Andre Roman.
