The Federal Reserve will take center stage this week as policymakers, economists, and global central bankers gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the Kansas City Fed’s annual Economic Policy Symposium. The event begins Thursday evening, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to deliver remarks on Friday that are expected to outline the central bank’s new policy framework for meeting its inflation and employment goals.
Powell may also hint at the Fed’s outlook heading into its September meeting. So far this year, officials have held interest rates steady as they gauge the economic effects of President Trump’s sweeping tariffs. With inflation still above target and the labor market showing signs of strain, policymakers remain divided on when—or whether—to resume rate cuts. Powell’s speech could provide clarity on whether momentum is building for a September move, at a time when the White House is ramping up pressure for easier policy.
Recent economic data offered a mixed picture. The July core consumer price index rose at its fastest pace this year, though tariff-exposed goods didn’t climb as much as feared. Meanwhile, wholesale inflation suggested mounting cost pressures for businesses. Retail sales data showed consumers spent more in recent months, but sentiment surveys revealed concerns over inflation and jobs.
Bloomberg Economics’ Take:
“Powell has the opportunity to settle speculation with his Jackson Hole speech. Last year, he used this venue to signal that rate cuts were coming. This time, the backdrop is different, and we don’t think he’ll be as direct,” wrote economists Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou, and Chris G. Collins.
The symposium also provides a platform for Powell’s global counterparts to weigh in, particularly amid President Trump’s repeated criticism of the Fed. Central bank independence will likely be a key topic on the sidelines. The program will feature fresh research papers and a panel of top monetary policymakers from around the world.
Global Outlook for the Week Ahead
- United States & Canada:
The U.S. economic calendar is lighter, with housing in focus. Economists expect Tuesday’s government report to show a decline in housing starts, while Thursday’s data from the National Association of Realtors may confirm existing home sales stuck near a 15-year low. Cheaper borrowing costs could eventually revive housing demand, but affordability remains a challenge.
In Canada, July inflation data will be closely watched ahead of the Bank of Canada’s September meeting. Core inflation measures accelerated last month, but any signs of cooling would strengthen the case for rate cuts. Advance July retail sales data will provide another look at consumer strength after June’s surprisingly strong spending figures.
- Asia:
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to resume its easing cycle Wednesday, trimming rates by a quarter point to 3% in an effort to support a weakening labor market. Bank Indonesia is likely to hold steady the same day, while China is expected to keep its one- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged.
Across the region, trade and manufacturing data will shed light on the toll of U.S. tariffs. South Korea releases early August trade figures, while Japan, Singapore, New Zealand, and Malaysia publish July reports. Thursday brings manufacturing PMI updates from Japan, Australia, and India. Thailand’s second-quarter GDP, due Monday, will likely confirm slower growth, validating the Bank of Thailand’s recent rate cut. Japan’s CPI report on Friday is expected to show inflation still running above target, bolstering the case for gradual rate hikes.
- Europe, Middle East & Africa:
The UK’s July inflation report is the week’s highlight, with the Bank of England projecting price gains to peak around 4% in September. Bloomberg Economics expects a slight rise to 3.7% from 3.6%. Retail sales will follow later in the week, alongside PMI data for major European economies.
ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks Wednesday in Geneva, and wage data on Friday will be closely monitored for signs of easing cost pressures. Sweden’s Riksbank is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2% despite a summer inflation bump. Elsewhere, South Africa’s July inflation report is forecast to show an acceleration, while Israel is seen holding rates steady for a 13th meeting. Rwanda and Botswana will set policy Thursday.
- Latin America:
Chile reports Q2 GDP and current account data, with growth expected to trail central bank forecasts before rebounding later this year. Brazil releases its weekly Focus survey and June activity data, while Argentina posts June GDP-proxy figures Wednesday. Economists expect Argentina’s economy to grow 5% in 2025 despite near-term weakness.
Mexico wraps up the week with June activity data and revised Q2 GDP figures, likely confirming initial readings of 0.7% quarterly growth. Uncertainty over Trump’s trade agenda and weaker public investment remain key drags heading into 2026. Mid-month inflation data due Friday will also test expectations after consumer prices slowed more than forecast in July.
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