Citi has boosted its price target on Nvidia (NVDA) to $190 per share, citing explosive growth in demand for AI infrastructure — particularly from sovereign governments. The new target implies a roughly 15% upside from Nvidia’s current levels. Analysts Atif Malik and Papa Sylla said they expect the company to capture an even larger share of the expanding total addressable market (TAM) for data center and networking infrastructure. Nvidia shares have risen 12% over the past month, pushing its market cap closer to $4 trillion.
“We believe sovereign demand is already contributing up to billions of dollars in 2025” and should ramp up further in 2026, Malik and Sylla wrote. Nvidia is involved in “essentially every sovereign deal,” they added, positioning the chip giant at the center of global efforts to build national AI infrastructure.
Citi now estimates the AI compute TAM for 2028 will hit $563 billion — up 13% from its prior forecast — while networking TAM is projected to reach $119 billion, up from $90 billion. These upgrades reflect Nvidia’s central role in scaling AI infrastructure across enterprises and governments. At Nvidia’s recent Generative AI conference, participants discussed a potential benchmark for enterprise-level AI infrastructure: one supercomputer or 10,000 GPUs per 100,000 employees — a ratio that could fuel massive deployments.
With its Blackwell GB200 chips powering many of these AI clusters, Nvidia is already seeing rapid deployment. Concerns over supply chain bottlenecks have eased, as rack buildouts are happening “at a rapid pace,” according to Citi. Looking ahead, the transition to Nvidia’s next-gen GB300 chips is expected to be smooth, thanks to lessons learned from earlier platform transitions.
Citi projects Nvidia’s data center revenue will grow 5% in FY 2027 and 11% in FY 2028. Networking sales are expected to surge 12% and 27%, respectively, with a 20% attach rate reflecting growing demand for systems linking high-performance AI clusters. Gross margins are also forecast to expand, stabilizing in the mid-70% range by year-end.
Despite the bullish outlook, Citi flagged potential downside risks — particularly around renewed export restrictions under a possible second Trump administration. Bloomberg recently reported that Malaysia and Thailand could face scrutiny over suspected shipments to China.
“Nvidia has line of sight to tens of gigawatts of sovereign and enterprise AI factory buildouts over the next few years,” the analysts wrote, underscoring continued momentum in public sector-driven AI expansion.
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