Cracker Barrel (CBRL) stock tumbled sharply late Wednesday after the iconic restaurant chain lowered its full-year guidance, signaling potential declines in customer traffic and sales for the coming year. The disappointing forecast follows the company’s highly publicized decision to roll back a recent logo update and pause plans to remodel its stores, a move that drew widespread attention and criticism—including from former President Donald Trump last month.
For fiscal year 2026, which began on August 2, Cracker Barrel now expects total revenue in the range of $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion, with restaurant traffic projected to decline 4% to 7% compared with the prior year. Wall Street analysts had anticipated revenue closer to $3.52 billion. The company also withdrew its previously issued outlook for fiscal year 2027, which had targeted revenue of $3.8 billion to $3.9 billion. Following the announcement, shares fell as much as 10% in late trading.
Despite the cautionary outlook, Cracker Barrel reported solid performance in its fourth quarter. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.74, slightly below the $0.77 expected by analysts, while revenue of $868 million exceeded forecasts. Same-store restaurant sales grew 5.4%, outperforming the 3.5% increase analysts had predicted. For the full fiscal year, revenue totaled $3.48 billion, reflecting less than 1% growth over the previous year.
CEO Julie Masino addressed the recent changes in a press release, emphasizing that the company had “listened” to its customers. “We thank our guests for sharing their voices and their passion for Cracker Barrel in recent weeks, and we’ve listened, switching back to our ‘Old Timer’ logo, hitting pause on remodels, and placing an even bigger emphasis in the kitchen and other areas that enhance the guest experience,” she said. Masino also expressed optimism about the future, noting that the company’s teams remain focused on regaining the momentum established in the previous fiscal year.
Looking ahead, Cracker Barrel expects capital expenditures to fall to $135 million-$150 million, as no spending is planned for store remodels. The company also plans to open just two new locations in the year ahead. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline significantly, with guidance in the range of $150 million to $190 million, down from $224.3 million reported in fiscal 2025.
Cracker Barrel will face additional headwinds from inflation, projecting commodity cost increases of 2.5%-3.5% and hourly wage inflation of 3%-4% for the upcoming fiscal year. Investors will likely scrutinize how the company plans to recover after last month’s highly publicized and ultimately unsuccessful rebranding effort.
Prior to Wednesday’s announcement, the stock had fallen roughly 6% year-to-date, underperforming the broader S&P 500 (^GSPC), which gained 12% over the same period.
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