Market Snapshot for Wednesday 6-18-2025
- S&P 500 – 5,980.87 (-0.03%)
- Dow Jones – 42,171.66 (-0.10%)
- NASDAQ – 19,545.27 (+0.13%)
Market Performance
Equity markets ended slightly lower on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve’s June policy decision. Technology and utilities led the gains, while energy and communication services underperformed. Overseas, Asian markets closed mixed, while European stocks broadly declined after eurozone CPI inflation for May came in at an annualized 1.9%, slightly below expectations of 2.0%. Major U.S. stock indexes are still trading near record highs.
Economic Takeaways –
- The U.S. dollar strengthened against major global currencies.
- In commodities, WTI crude oil edged higher as investors weighed rising tensions and intensifying airstrikes between Israel and Iran.
- Bond yields moved higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.39%.
- Initial jobless claims dipped to 245,000, while housing starts and building permits both declined.
- The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, and 7.4 million job openings still exceed the 7.2 million people that are unemployed.
- In housing data, U.S. housing starts for May came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.256 million, while building permits totaled 1.393 million. Both figures missed expectations of 1.36 million and 1.41 million, respectively, and declined from April, with housing starts showing particular weakness.
- The World Bank slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 by four-tenths of a percentage point to 2.3%.
Gold –
- Gold prices were trading a bit lower on Wednesday ahead of the FOMC meeting.
- Citigroup Inc. expects gold prices to decline below $3,000 an ounce in the coming quarters.
Oil –
- Oil prices fell nearly 2% on Wednesday as investors showed concern over the chance of supply disruptions from the Israel-Iran conflict and potential direct U.S. involvement.
- The price of crude remains up almost 9% since Israel launched attacks against Iran last Friday.
- Barclays warned that crude prices could rise to $85 per barrel if Iranian exports are reduced by half, and that prices could rise about $100 in the “worst case” scenario.
Bitcoin –
- Bitcoin dipped to the $104,000 level.
- A U.S. stablecoin bill progressed this week. The GENIUS Act establishes the first federal framework for dollar-pegged stablecoins.
- A cryptocurrency platform called Bitcoin.ℏis promising cleaner, more sustainable option for crypto-savvy investors. A recent CoinGape report calls Bitcoin.ℏ a “green, quantum-resistant replacement for Bitcoin” that aims to solve cryptocurrency’s sustainability challenges.
Market Outlook
Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services, said U.S. stocks might initially sell off should Trump order the U.S. military to become more heavily involved in the Israel-Iran conflict, but that a faster escalation might also bring the situation to an end sooner. “I could see the initial knee-jerk would be, ‘this is bad’,” Carlson said. “I think it will bring things to a head quicker.”
“I don’t think personally that we are going to join this war. I think Trump is going to do everything possible to avoid it. But if it can’t be avoided, then initially that’s going to be negative for the markets,” said Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. “Gold would shoot up. Yields would probably come down lower and the dollar would probably rally.”
Trades on the Polymarket betting website point to a 63% expectation of “U.S. military action against Iran before July”, down from as much as an 82% likelihood on Tuesday, but still above a 35% chance before the conflict began last Friday.
Fed Rates Remain Steady
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed Wednesday that the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged, reiterating that the U.S. economy remains in a “solid position.” While officials left the door open to potential rate cuts in the second half of the year, they emphasized there is no urgency to act quickly.
President Trump, anticipating the decision, criticized it earlier in the day and called for aggressive rate reductions between 1 and 2.5 percentage points. The Fed held its benchmark rate steady in the 4.25% to 4.5% range.
Updated projections from the central bank show a more cautious outlook for future cuts: only two Fed officials now foresee one rate cut in 2025, down from four previously. Additionally, fewer cuts are projected for 2026 and 2027 than earlier estimates.
“We have pretty healthy diversity of views on the committee,” Powell said at a press conference, noting that “people can look at the same data and evaluate the risks differently.” He added that these differences are likely to “diminish” as more economic data becomes available.
The Fed’s decision is unlikely to sit well with Trump, who has repeatedly pressured Powell both privately and publicly to lower rates. Last week, Trump went as far as saying he “may have to force something” if cuts don’t materialize.
Top Gainers
Several stocks experienced significant gains. Some of the top gainers included:
- TMC the metals company (TMC) moved higher 24.29%
- Scholar Rock Holding Corp. (SRRK) soared by 16.60%
- Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) exploded 16.51%
- Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) surged 16.32%
- Symbotic, Inc. (SYM) rose 14.57%
- Genworth Financia, Inc. (GNW) moved up 13.74%
- QXO, Inc. (QXO) rose 11.66%
- Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) spiked 10.64%
- GMS, Inc. (GMS) moved up 10.61%
- AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) surged 10.60%
Top Losers
The top US stock losers today, based on percentage change included:
- TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) moved lower 8.96%
- com Group Limited (TCOM) moved lower 6.81%
- Freedom Holding Corp. (FRHC) sank 6.54%
- ExlService Holdings, Inc. (EXLS) fell 5.93%
- Mastercard Inc. (MA) was down 5.39%
- DXC Technology Company (DXC) moved lower 5.14%
- PBF Energy, Inc. (PBF) sank 5.00%
- Globant S.A. (GLOB) dragged 4.98%
- Visa, Inc. (V) moved down 4.88%
- AppLovin Corporation (APP) slumped 4.46%
Notables
- The S&P 500 energy sector index has rallied over 2% in the past four sessions, lifted by a 3.8% gain in Exxon Mobil and 5% rally in Valero Energy.
- Coinbase shares moved higher Wednesday, buoyed by the Senate’s passage of a bill that establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers.
- The development raised concerns about potential disruption to the broader payments ecosystem, weighing on credit card and payment stocks. Shares of Mastercard and Visa declined.
- TKO Group Holdings (TKO) jumped 4.8% after multiple investment research firms issued upbeat commentary on the parent company of the Ultimate Fighting Championship and World Wrestling Entertainment.
- Enphase Energy (ENPH), a solar microinverter maker, rebounded 4.2%, recovering some ground after steep losses in the prior session triggered by the Senate’s proposed reconciliation bill, which included reductions to core clean-energy tax credits.
- Shares of business payments firm Corpay (CPAY) slid 4%, and payroll software provider Paycom Software (PAYC) fell 3.7%.
- Zoetis (ZTS), which provides veterinary medicines and animal health products, dropped 4.1% following a downgrade by Stifel from “buy” to “hold.”
- Circle (CRCL) soared more than 30% after the Senate’s stablecoin legislation passed. The stock has now surged over 500% since its market debut.
What to Watch Ahead
The market will be closed tomorrow in honor of Juneteenth.
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