Market Snapshot for Friday 6-20-2025
- S&P 500 – 5,967.84 (-0.22%)
- Dow Jones – 42,206.82 (+0.083%)
- NASDAQ – 19,447.41 (-0.51%)
Market Performance
Equity markets closed lower on Friday after President Trump delayed a decision on U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict by two weeks, providing additional time for diplomatic talks. Energy and consumer staples stocks recorded the strongest gains, while communication services and materials led the losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose just above the flatline. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5%. All three major averages were little changed for the week.
In international markets, Asia ended mixed, with China’s central bank leaving its one-year loan prime rate unchanged at 3.0%, in line with expectations. European markets moved higher despite a surprise decline in preliminary eurozone consumer confidence for June.
Economic Takeaways –
- The U.S. dollar weakened against major global currencies.
- WTI crude oil prices climbed amid escalating air strikes between Israel and Iran.
- The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), designed to signal upcoming shifts in the business cycle and near-term economic trends, dipped slightly by 0.1% in May to 99.0, missing expectations for no change.
- Bond yields declined, with the 10-year Treasury yield slipping to 4.38%, continuing its retreat from the May high near 4.60%.
- Earlier in the week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released an updated “dot plot,” reaffirming expectations for two rate cuts in 2025. However, projections for next year were trimmed to just one rate cut, down from two in the March forecast.
Gold –
- Gold declined 0.3% on Friday after President Trump paused a decision over whether the US will become involved in the Israel-Iran conflict.
- Gold is up nearly 30% this year still.
Oil –
- West Texas Intermediate futures traded just below $75 per barrel, and Brent crude, the international benchmark, hovered near $76.
- WTI and Brent were up nearly 3% for the week.
Bitcoin –
- Bitcoin slipped under $104,000.
- This week the Senate passed a bill called the GENIUS Act, that would establish a federal framework for dollar-backed cryptocurrencies known as stablecoins.
A Fed Governor is Optimistic
Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller on Friday raised the prospect of interest rate cuts as early as July, citing subdued inflation data despite the implementation of Trump’s new tariffs. The Fed kept rates unchanged this week, and Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that policymakers are in no hurry to ease—prompting renewed criticism from Trump.
Waller’s remarks prompted a modest increase in market expectations for a July rate cut, though the majority of traders still anticipate the next move will come in September, according to CME Group data.
“We could do this as early as July,” Waller said Friday during an interview on CNBC. The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet July 29-30 in Washington.
Waller noted that economic data indicate GDP growth and inflation are close to the Fed’s targets. He also believes the central bank’s benchmark rate is currently 1.25 to 1.5 percentage points above the estimated neutral level, where monetary policy neither slows nor stimulates the economy.
“I think we’ve got room to bring it down, and then we can kind of see what happens with inflation,” he said, adding that the Fed could pause rate cuts if necessary, due to shocks such as the crisis in the Middle East. “We’ve been on pause for six months to wait and see, and so far the data has been fine.”
Circle’s Rally Continues to Boom
Circle (CRCL) jumped another 15% as the crypto ‘disruptor’ rally continued.
The stock surged as much as 15% in early trading Friday, building on its remarkable post-IPO momentum as Wall Street continues to embrace the stablecoin issuer as a leading force in the crypto space.
“Circle as a top-tier crypto ‘disruptor’ with a sizeable future opportunity,” wrote Seaport Research Partners analyst Jeff Cantwell on Friday.
“On the back of an improving regulatory climate, we expect adoption globally of stablecoins such as USDC,” he added.
Cantwell initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $235 price target. By mid-morning Friday, Circle shares were trading around $228.
The latest gains follow a 30% jump on Wednesday after the Senate passed the GENIUS Act, a landmark bill establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins—digital tokens typically backed by assets like the U.S. dollar.
Shares of Circle (CRCL) issuer of the world’s second-largest stablecoin is up more than 77% through the week. In total, the stock is up more than seven times its initial June 5 IPO price.
Several stocks experienced significant gains. Some of the top gainers included:
- GMS Inc. (GMS) moved higher 23.77%
- Under Armour, Inc. (UAA) soared by 13.94%
- Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) exploded 13.05%
- John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (WLYB) surged 12.82%
- Zeta Global Holdings Corp. (ZETA) rose 12.63%
- Under Armour, Inc. (UA) moved up 12.46%
- GXO Logistics, Inc. (GXO) rose 12.13%
- The Kroger Co. (KR) spiked 9.84%
- Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) moved up 9.41%
- Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) surged 7.86%
Top Losers
The top US stock losers today, based on percentage change included:
- Lyell Immunopharma, Inc. (LYEL) moved lower 9.29%
- Cosan S.A. (CSAN) moved lower 8.65%
- Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) sank 8.15%
- KBR, Inc. (KBR) fell 7.29%
- Accenture plc (CAN) was down 6.86%
- Oklo Inc. (OKLO) moved lower 6.56%
- Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) sank 6.49%
- Pony AI Inc. (PONY) dragged 6.48%
- Zai Lab Limited (ZLAB) moved down 6.44%
- Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) slumped 6.43%
Notables
- This week an adviser to Europe’s highest court sided with EU regulators in Google’s fight against a record 4.34 billion euro ($4.98 billion) fine. Turkey has also launched an anti-trust investigation into Google.
- Semiconductor stocks fell on Friday following a Wall Street Journal report that a senior U.S. official informed major global chipmakers of plans to revoke waivers allowing them to use American technology in China.
- Darden Restaurants (DRI) gained 2.7% in pre-market trading after narrowly topping Wall Street’s earnings and revenue expectations and announcing a dividend increase.
- Accenture (ACN) slipped 5% before the bell, despite beating consensus estimates for earnings and revenue and raising its guidance. Investor sentiment appeared weighed down by concerns over underlying business trends.
- CarMax (KMX) surged 9.6% ahead of the open as strong demand for used vehicles drove earnings and revenue above analyst forecasts.
- Tesla (TSLA) rose nearly 2% in early trading, with investors eyeing its tentative plan to launch robotaxis in Austin this Sunday.
- Coinbase (COIN) climbed 3%, while Circle Internet Group (CRCL) jumped 14% in early trading, adding to Wednesday’s respective 16% and 33% gains. The surge followed Senate approval of a bill to regulate stablecoins. A House vote is still needed, with key differences between versions yet to be resolved, though Reuters reports a vote could come by late summer.
- Kroger (KR) shares were mostly flat early Friday after the company raised its full-year sales forecast, maintained its profit guidance, and reported mixed results for the latest quarter.
- Wolfspeed’s (WOLF) stock fell 4% premarket after reports emerged on Thursday it would be taken over by creditors inculding Apollo Global Management.
- GMS (GMS) shares jumped 23% following a Wall Street Journal report that Home Depot (HD) has made an offer to acquire the building-products distributor, according to sources familiar with the situation. The report did not disclose a proposed purchase price.
- IBM (IBM) edged down nearly 1% after three consecutive sessions of record closes. Wednesday’s rally was fueled by a Bank of America (BAC) price target hike, driven by optimism over AI and quantum computing growth potential.
- Top of Form
What to Watch Ahead
Several major companies are set to report earnings in the week ahead, including Micron Technology (MU), FedEx (FDX), Nike (NKE), and Carnival (CCL). Tesla (TSLA) is also expected to unveil its highly anticipated robotaxi program in Austin on Sunday. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk (NVO) will host its investor day conference.
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