Market Snapshot for Wednesday 7-2-2025
Dow Jones – 44,484.42 (-0.02%)
NASDAQ – 20,393.13 (+0.94%)
S&P 500 – 6,227.42 (+0.47%)
Market Performance
U.S. stocks climbed on Wednesday, notching fresh record highs as optimism around trade agreements combined with growing signs of a labor market slowdown, strengthening expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained nearly 0.5% to close at a new record of 6,277.42, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) surged more than 0.9% to a record close of 20,393.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) hovered just below the flatline.
Economic Takeaways –
- President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, boosting investor optimism that additional deals could be finalized before the July 9 deadline to resume paused tariffs.
- New signs of a labor market slowdown emerged. ADP data revealed that U.S. private employers unexpectedly cut 33,000 jobs in June, far below forecasts for a gain of about 98,000. It marked the first monthly decline in private-sector employment in more than two years.
- Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” is drawing attention as it advances to the House after passing the Senate with a tie-breaking vote from Vice President JD Vance. However, divisions within the Republican Party are putting a potential final vote at risk, even as Trump aims to sign the legislation by July 4.
- Research by Exhibit A co-founder Matt Cerminaro reveals that both the Tech and Communication Services sectors have each declined more than 22% from their most recent peak at some point this year.
- Bond yields finished higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to around the 4.3% mark.
Gold –
- Gold futures settled around $3,373 on Wednesday.
- HSBC raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3,215 an ounce from $3,015 and its 2026 forecast to $3,125 from $2,915, citing elevated risks and government debt.
Oil –
- Oil prices rose 3% on Wednesday as Iran suspended cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog and the U.S. and Vietnam reached a trade deal.
- Brent crude settled $2.00 higher, or 3%, to $69.11 a barrel.
- S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.00, or 3.1%, to $67.45 a barrel.
Crypto –
- The price of Bitcoin surged towards $110,000.
U.S. Private Sector Sheds 33,000 Jobs in June, Marking First Decline Since 2023
U.S. private employers unexpectedly cut 33,000 jobs in June, marking the latest indication of a cooling labor market.
ADP data released Wednesday showed private payrolls declined by 33,000 last month, a sharp miss compared to economists’ expectations for 98,000 job gains and down from the 29,000 jobs added in May.
This was the first decline in private-sector employment since March 2023. May’s preliminary figure of 37,000 new jobs had already been the lowest since that time.
“Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson in the report. “Still, the slowdown in hiring has yet to disrupt pay growth.”
Tesla Stock Ticks Higher Ahead of Delivery Report, Despite Political Backlash and Weak Demand
Tesla (TSLA) shares pointed higher in premarket trading Wednesday as investors awaited the company’s latest quarterly delivery numbers — even as analysts expect another year-over-year decline in global sales.
Tesla is forecast to report 395,328 global deliveries for the second quarter, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates, down 11% from a year ago but well above the 336,700 delivered in Q1. Production is expected to reach 443,321 vehicles, an increase from the 410,800 produced in the same period last year.
Disappointing sales are nothing new for analysts tracking the EV maker. June data painted a mixed picture, with Tesla sales falling for the sixth straight month in France, Sweden, Denmark, and Italy, but rising in Norway and Spain — an early sign that the updated Model Y may be gaining traction.
Shares edged into the green after Tuesday’s 5% drop, which followed another flare-up in CEO Elon Musk’s public feud with President Trump.
“Demand weakness in the US and EU comes after CEO Elon Musk’s foray into Trump administration politics, which has caused some Tesla owners to become disillusioned with Musk, specifically by his right-leaning tendencies, support of right-wing leaders in Europe, and leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in the US.”
While Musk’s recent return to focusing on his companies has been welcomed by some investors, questions remain about the long-term impact of his political activities on Tesla’s brand.
Yahoo Finance’s Pras Subramanian reports:
“For the second quarter, Tesla is expected to report global deliveries of 395,328, per Bloomberg consensus estimates, down 11% compared to a year ago but significantly higher than the 336,700 delivered in Q1. Production across its global plants is expected to come in at 443,321, up compared to last year’s 410,800 produced.”
One bright spot could be Tesla’s ongoing robotaxi trials in Austin, Texas. However, early optimism has been clouded by circulating videos showing the autonomous vehicles speeding, driving through turn-only lanes, and crossing double-yellow lines — all of which could complicate regulatory scrutiny and public perception.
Microsoft is Laying Off Many
Microsoft will lay off nearly 4% of its workforce, the company announced Wednesday, marking the latest round of job cuts as the tech giant works to control costs while making significant investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
As of June 2024, Microsoft employed roughly 228,000 people worldwide. The company had previously announced in May that it was cutting around 6,000 jobs. Last month, Bloomberg News reported that Microsoft was planning to eliminate thousands of roles, particularly in its sales organization.
The Windows maker has committed $80 billion in capital spending for fiscal year 2025. But the rising cost of building out its AI infrastructure is starting to pressure margins. Microsoft expects its June-quarter cloud margins to decline compared to the previous year.
On Wednesday, the company said it will “reduce organizational layers with fewer managers and streamline its products, procedures and roles.”
The Seattle Times was first to report the layoffs earlier in the day. Separately, Bloomberg reported that Microsoft’s King division in Barcelona, known for developing Candy Crush, is cutting 10% of its staff, or about 200 jobs.
Microsoft confirmed to Reuters that its gaming division was affected by the layoffs, though not the majority of the unit. It did not offer additional details.
Top Gainers
Several stocks experienced significant gains. Some of the top gainers included:
- Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. (BMNR) moved higher 27.17%
- Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) soared by 15.75%
- Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) exploded 15.45%
- Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) surged 13.40%
- MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) rose 13.38%
- Eve Holding, Inc. (EVEX) moved up 12.75%
- CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK) rose 12.64%
- IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) spiked 11.60%
- Quantum Computing, Inc. (QUBT) moved up 10.78%
- Enovix Corp. (ENVX) surged 9.56%
Top Losers
The top US stock losers today, based on percentage change included:
- Centene Corp. (CNC) moved lower 40.37%
- Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) moved down 21.97%
- Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) sank 18.73%
- Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) fell 11.50%
- UniFirst Corp. (UNF) was down 10.16%
- NatWest Group plc (NWG) sank 6.34%
- Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP) dragged 5.71%
- UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) moved down 5.07%
- National Grid plc (NGG) slumped 5.07%
- Enstar Group Limited (ESGRO) dragged 4.82%
Notables
- Apple (AAPL) shares rose following an analyst upgrade from Jefferies (JEF).
- Tesla (TSLA) stock advanced after the company reported stronger-than-expected global vehicle production in the second quarter, despite a sharp drop in sales.
- Robinhood (HOOD) shares hit an all-time high of $100 for the first time on Wednesday, fueled by growing momentum around the platform’s ongoing expansion.
- Footwear stocks climbed Wednesday morning after President Trump announced on Truth Social that he had “made a Trade Deal with Vietnam.” Nike (NKE), On Holding (ONON), Deckers (DECK), and Lululemon (LULU) all jumped sharply following the news.
- Intel (INTC) shares dropped after a Reuters report revealed the company’s new CEO is weighing the possibility of abandoning its highly anticipated 18A chip technology for external customers.
- Netflix (NFLX) gained after The Wall Street Journal reported the company is exploring a potential partnership with Spotify (SPOT) on music award shows or live concert events.
- Insurance stocks fell sharply Wednesday after the previous session’s passage of President Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax and spending bill, which includes major cuts to federal healthcare spending over the next decade.
- Verint Systems (VRNT) jumped following a Bloomberg report that a private equity firm is in talks to acquire the company.
- General Motors (GM) and Ford (F), both of which rallied Tuesday, edged higher in premarket trading ahead of U.S. vehicle sales data. Sales fell to a 15.65 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in May, missing expectations.
- Large U.S. banks traded higher early Wednesday after several announced dividend hikes and buybacks following their success in the Fed’s annual stress tests. Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) each rose 0.5%.
- Adobe (ADBE) slid after Rothschild & Co. Redburn downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral.
- Centene (CNC) plunged more than 30% premarket after the company pulled its 2025 guidance.
- Oracle (ORCL) gained as the company expanded its Stargate deal with OpenAI.
- Merit Street Media, the startup founded by celebrity psychologist Phil McGraw, filed for bankruptcy Wednesday in Texas, according to a court filing.
What to Watch Ahead
The June U.S. jobs report, set for release tomorrow, is viewed as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve as investors grow more confident that a rate cut could come sooner rather than later. CME data shows most Fed watchers still don’t expect a rate cut in July, but nearly all anticipate at least one by September — with more than 20% now factoring in the possibility of two cuts by then.
Here are the numbers Wall Street is expecting Thursday, according to data from Bloomberg:
- Nonfarm payrolls: +110,000 vs. +139,000 in May
- Unemployment rate: 4.3% vs. 4.2%
- Average hourly earnings, month over month: +0.3% vs. +0.4%
- Average hourly earnings, year over year: +3.8% vs. +3.9%
- Average weekly hours worked: 34.3 vs. 34.3
“We think labor demand is slowing, but so far the slowdown is modest,” Morgan Stanley chief US economist Michael Gapen wrote in a note to clients.
The markets will close early tomorrow at 1PM ET. Markets will be closed on Friday.
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