Market Snapshot for Friday 7-18-2025
Dow Jones – 44,342.19 (-0.32%)
NASDAQ – 20,895.66 (+0.048%)
S&P 500 – 6,296.79 (-0.0090%)
Market Performance
Major U.S. stock indexes ended mixed on Friday as a rise in consumer sentiment hinted that concerns over potential tariff effects may be easing.
The S&P 500 fluctuated during the session before slipping less than 0.1%, finishing the week just shy of Thursday’s closing high. The Dow fell 0.3%, while the Nasdaq edged up slightly, notching its fifth consecutive record close.
Economic Takeaways –
- Bond yields and the U.S. dollar edged lower following dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who floated the possibility of a July rate cut. He argued the Fed should act proactively and discount tariff-driven inflation. Still, markets remain skeptical, pricing in less than a 5% chance of a July move and a roughly 61% probability of a cut by September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. With inflation pressures lingering and unemployment still low, expectations remain that the Fed will tread carefully.
- Adding to the mixed macro picture, the University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment survey showed inflation expectations easing, with one-year outlooks falling to 4.4% in July from 5% in June. Meanwhile, the labor market continued to show strength, as initial jobless claims declined and June retail sales exceeded expectations.
- Economic growth forecasts, however, took a slight hit. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model trimmed its Q2 GDP estimate to 2.4% from 2.6%, citing weaker real personal consumption figures. The official government GDP report is scheduled for release on July 30.
- June housing data presented a mixed picture: overall housing starts rose 4.6% month-over-month and permits edged up 0.2%, but single-family starts and permits fell 4.6% and 3.7%, respectively—clouding the outlook for homebuilding, according to Briefing.com.
- In markets, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) briefly ticked higher mid-month after hitting five-month lows in early July, but remains below its long-term average of 20—signaling continued investor calm.
- Meanwhile, the S&P 500’s expected earnings growth for the current quarter has been sharply revised higher—from 4% to 10%—underscoring a stronger-than-expected corporate earnings season.
Gold –
- Gold prices rose on Friday as a weaker U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty boosted demand for the safe-haven metal.
- Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,351.18 per ounce, as of 0153 p.m. EDT (1753 GMT), after falling 1.1% in the previous session. U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% higher at $3,358.3
- Platinum prices eased after reaching their highest level since 2014.
Oil –
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended the week with a 1% loss, as mixed U.S. economic data and tariff concerns outweighed the impact of new European Union sanctions on Russia.
- After nearly two years, Chevron (CVX) looks set to close its $53 billion deal to buy rival Hess (HES) and clinch access to one of the most significant oil discoveries in decades.
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed to ease permits for oil drilling in California.
Crypto –
- Bitcoin hovered under $118,000 a coin.
- President Trump signed a landmark Stablecoin bill.
- Investor enthusiasm has been growing around crypto-related stocks amid the policy momentum, with shares of Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), and newly public Circle (CRCL) seeing notable gains.
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a report Tuesday stating that El Salvador has not made any new Bitcoin (BTC) purchases since entering into a loan agreement with the organization in December 2023.
Trump Signs Landmark Stablecoin Bill and Pledges to Make U.S. “Crypto Capital of the World”
President Donald Trump on Friday signed into law the GENIUS Act, marking the first federal regulatory framework for U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins — a major win for the crypto industry in its push for clearer oversight from Washington.
“I pledged that we would bring back American liberty and leadership and make the United States the crypto capital of the world, and that’s what we’ve done,” Trump declared at the White House signing ceremony.
Two additional crypto-focused bills also passed the House this week: the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act, which bans the creation of a central bank digital currency, and the Clarity Act, which designates the SEC and CFTC as regulators for most digital assets aside from stablecoins. Both measures now head to the Senate, where their outcomes remain uncertain.
The legislative progress comes after weeks of intense negotiations among Republican leaders and has been dubbed “Crypto Week” by supporters.
Trump is also expanding his personal stake in the crypto space through World Liberty Financial, a new venture launched with his sons. The firm, in partnership with BitGo, recently debuted USD1, a U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin.
Chevron Wins ICC Ruling, Clears Path to $53B Hess Deal and Access to ‘Once-in-Several-Lifetimes’ Oil Asset
Chevron (CVX) is on track to finalize its $53 billion acquisition of Hess (HES) after nearly two years of regulatory and legal hurdles, securing access to one of the most significant oil discoveries in recent history.
An arbitration panel at the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) in Paris ruled Friday that Chevron may proceed with its all-stock purchase of Hess. The decision effectively ends rival ExxonMobil’s (XOM) efforts to block the deal and closes the book on one of the most contentious standoffs the energy industry has seen in decades.
“This is a ‘once-in-several-lifetimes type of asset,’” said David Sweeney, co-head of the global energy and resources sector at Clifford Chance, in an interview with Yahoo Finance.
At the heart of the deal is Hess’ 30% stake in the Stabroek offshore block, located off the coast of Guyana. The massive oil play is estimated to hold over 11 billion barrels of crude, according to Reuters.
The Stabroek find has not only drawn fierce industry interest but also transformed Guyana from one of the Western Hemisphere’s poorest nations into the world’s second-fastest-growing economy, per April data from the International Monetary Fund.
Following the ICC decision, shares of both Chevron and Hess initially rose. Chevron stock later dipped roughly 1.5% in afternoon trading.
Peter Thiel-Backed Crypto Exchange Bullish Files for IPO
Bullish, a digital-asset exchange supported by billionaire Peter Thiel, filed for an initial public offering as cryptocurrency companies continue pushing into public markets.
The Cayman Islands-based company reported a net loss of about $349 million on $80 million in digital-asset sales during the first quarter, a sharp decline from a net income of $105 million on similar sales a year earlier, according to its filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday.
Bullish joins a growing list of crypto firms pursuing public listings this year through traditional IPOs, SPAC mergers, or reverse takeovers. A standout example is stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group Inc., whose shares have soared as much as 750% above their IPO price within the first month following a $1.2 billion offering.
U.S. crypto companies have gained momentum thanks to the Trump administration’s industry-friendly stance and recent congressional advances in crypto legislation, capped by this week’s passage and signing of the Genius Act to regulate stablecoins.
Led by CEO Tom Farley, Bullish offers crypto spot, margin, and derivatives trading—though its margin and derivatives products are currently unavailable in the U.S. and to U.S. users.
“We intend to IPO because we believe that the digital assets industry is beginning its next leg of growth,” Farley said in a letter to investors included in Friday’s filing. “We view transparency and compliance as hallmarks of how we operate Bullish, and believe those values align well with the public capital markets,” he added.
Blackstone Withdraws from Consortium Bid for TikTok’s U.S. Operations, Source Says
Private equity giant Blackstone has pulled out of a consortium aiming to invest in TikTok’s U.S. business, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Friday.
The development adds to growing uncertainty around the TikTok deal, which has faced multiple delays and is now a key topic in U.S.-China trade discussions.
Blackstone had intended to take a minority stake in TikTok’s U.S. operations as part of a deal championed by President Donald Trump. The consortium, led by Susquehanna International Group and General Atlantic—both existing investors in TikTok’s Chinese parent company ByteDance—had emerged as the frontrunner to acquire TikTok’s U.S. business. Under the proposed deal, U.S. investors would hold 80% ownership, while ByteDance would retain a minority share.
Blackstone declined to comment, and TikTok did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The deadline for ByteDance to divest TikTok’s U.S. operations has been postponed several times, contributing to investor uncertainty.
Last month, Trump signed a third executive order extending the deadline to September 17, following Congress’s April 2024 law requiring the sale or shutdown of TikTok by January 19, 2025.
Some lawmakers have criticized the extensions, arguing that the Trump administration is “flouting the law” and overlooking national security risks linked to Chinese control of TikTok.
Top Gainers
Several stocks experienced significant gains. Some of the top gainers included:
- Stem, Inc. (STEM) moved higher by 45.63%
- Talen Energy Corp. (TLN) soared by 24.48%
- CRISPR Therapeutics AG (CRSP) exploded 18.22%
- Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) surged 15.28%
- Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) rose 11.82%
- Applied Digital Corp. (APLD) moved up 9.35%
- Hesai Group (HSAI) rose 8.42%
- Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) spiked 7.77%
- QuantumScape Corp. (QS) moved up 7.65%
- NuScale Power Corp. (SMR) surged 7.30%
Top Losers
The top US stock losers today, based on percentage change included:
- MicroAlgo, Inc. (MLGO) moved lower 17.57%
- Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) moved down 11.09%
- Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) sank 10.41%
- Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) fell 8.38%
- StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) was down 8.32%
- Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NEGG) sank 7.05%
- Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) plummeted 6.93%
- Zai Lab Limited (ZLAB) down 6.84%
- PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS) dragged 6.71%
- Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) down 6.49%
Notables
- Invesco shares jumped after the asset manager filed a request for shareholders to reclassify the Invesco QQQ Trust as an open-ended fund.
- Netflix (NFLX) reported stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings but warned of a weaker operating margin in the second half of the year, sending its shares lower.
- Shares of Regions Financial (RF) climbed 6.1% after the Alabama-based bank topped second-quarter profit expectations, driven by solid year-over-year growth in both net interest and fee income.
- Talen Energy (TLN) soared more than 24% after announcing a $3.5 billion deal to acquire two gas-fired power plants in Pennsylvania and Ohio. The acquisition supports Talen’s push to expand its energy infrastructure portfolio and meet rising demand from power-hungry data centers. Nuclear energy peers Vistra (VST) and Constellation Energy (CEG), which have also targeted data center markets, gained 6.1% and 4.3%, respectively.
- Dell Technologies (DELL) jumped 6% after Bank of America projected the company could nearly double its earnings per share by 2030. Analysts cited strong AI infrastructure demand from businesses and governments, along with renewed capital spending on cloud technology, as key drivers of future growth.
- Elevance Health (ELV) plunged 8.4%, marking its second consecutive sharp drop. The insurer slashed its full-year outlook due to elevated costs tied to Medicaid and Affordable Care Act plans. The warning dragged down other health insurers, with Molina Healthcare (MOH) falling more than 10%—the biggest loss among S&P 500 stocks on Friday.
- 3M (MMM) initially rose after posting stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings and raising its 2025 outlook. However, shares reversed course and closed 3.7% lower as executives flagged global economic weakness and headwinds in the consumer electronics and auto parts sectors during the earnings call.
What to Watch Ahead
Magnificent Seven earnings kick off next week with stocks near all-time highs. Analysts expect the group of tech giants to continue to benefit from their size and position in the AI race. Three of the Mag 7—Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta—are up double digits since the start of 2025 and are currently at or near record highs.
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