Market Snapshot for Tuesday August 12th, 2025
S&P 500 – 6,445.76 (+1.13%)• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month in July, keeping the annual headline inflation rate steady at 2.8%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% month-over-month, pushing the year-over-year rate to 3.1%. Overall, the report suggests tariffs have so far caused only a moderate uptick in inflation this year. However, unless companies absorb these costs through reduced margins, inflationary pressures from tariffs may intensify in the months ahead.
• Following the latest CPI data, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month rose to about 90%, up from 86% the previous day, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
NASDAQ – 21,681.90 (+1.39%)
Dow Jones – 44,458.61 (+1.10%)
Market Performance
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday after a softer-than-expected inflation report boosted hopes that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates next month.
The S&P 500 rose 1.13% to 6,445.76, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 1.39% to 21,681.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 483.52 points, or 1.10%, closing at 44,458.61.
The latest inflation data eased investor concerns about President Donald Trump’s tariff policies driving prices higher. July’s consumer price index (CPI) increased 2.7% year-over-year, slightly below the 2.8% forecast. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.1%, just above the expected 3%.
Following the report, expectations for rate cuts surged. Traders now see a 94% chance of a Federal Reserve cut in September, up from 85% before the data release, with increased bets on cuts in October and December as well.
“It looks like a bit of Goldilocks for the stock market,” said Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Asset Management Group. “Rates are leaning lower, earnings are improving — that’s a favorable backdrop for stocks.”
Small-cap stocks, which typically benefit from lower borrowing costs, led the gains with the Russell 2000 surging nearly three times the S&P 500’s advance.
Investors are also monitoring tariff developments after President Trump extended a 90-day pause on higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Attention now turns to Thursday’s producer price index report for further inflation insight ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium and its September policy meeting.
Economic Takeaways –
- The small-cap focused Russell 2000 jumped nearly 2% in midday trading. By comparison, the broad S&P 500 added 0.7%.
- The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) jumped 2.8% on Tuesday, hitting a multi-year high back to 2008.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month in July, keeping the annual headline inflation rate steady at 2.8%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% month-over-month, pushing the year-over-year rate to 3.1%. Overall, the report suggests tariffs have so far caused only a moderate uptick in inflation this year. However, unless companies absorb these costs through reduced margins, inflationary pressures from tariffs may intensify in the months ahead.
- Following the latest CPI data, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month rose to about 90%, up from 86% the previous day, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Gold –
- Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday after U.S. inflation data sustained expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, while attention turned to other key economic data due this week.
- Spot gold rose 0.1% to $3,347.34 an ounce at 1:50 p.m. EDT (1750 GMT).
Oil –
- Oil prices dipped on Tuesday as traders awaited an inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and began looking toward declining demand at the end of the summer driving season in early September.
- Brent crude futures settled at $66.12 a barrel, down 51 cents, or 0.77%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $63.17, down 79 cents, or 1.24%.
Crypto –
- Do Kwon, crypto founder, pleads guilty to US fraud charges in $40B crypto collapse.
- President Trump’s crypto ventures have yielded $2.4B since 2022.
- Bitcoin is hovering under $120,000.
Wolfe Research: Economic Outlook ‘Better Than Feared’
Despite a typically volatile summer, Wolfe Research believes current market fears will likely ease by fall, with the U.S. economy poised for improvement.
“While we still expect the Fed to hold rates steady in September, last week’s payroll data gives the FOMC reason to consider cuts they had been contemplating. The decision is now much closer,” the firm said in a Sunday note. “Looking ahead, we believe the economy will appear stronger than feared by fall, with growth showing signs of turning.”
BCA Research: Market Rally May Persist Despite Economic Weakness
BCA Research suggests the stock market rally could continue even as the economy shows signs of slowing.
“The key question for investors is whether fundamental weakness will impact markets over the next six to twelve months,” the firm wrote Monday. “We are starting to believe it won’t—provided the slowdown is gradual.”
In fact, the weakening could be “celebrated as a catalyst” for the Fed to lower interest rates, BCA added.
“Strong bullish momentum makes it tough for defensive positions to gain traction. While early data confirms the economy isn’t as robust as investors think, with labor and consumption precariously balanced, the market remains resilient,” the note concluded.
Apple Faces New AI Challenge as Elon Musk Threatens Legal Action Over ChatGPT’s App Store Ranking
Apple’s stock has fallen nearly 20% in 2025, shedding over $750 billion in market value and losing its spot as the world’s most valuable company—largely due to investor disappointment in Apple’s AI efforts, with its Apple Intelligence suite failing to gain traction. Now, Apple faces a fresh AI controversy, this time from Elon Musk, who is threatening “immediate legal action” if Apple does not remove OpenAI’s ChatGPT from the top spot on its App Store.
The dispute erupted Monday when Musk took to his social media platform, X, which he acquired for $44 billion, to accuse Apple of unfair App Store practices. He claimed Apple’s ranking system “makes it impossible for any AI company besides OpenAI to reach #1,” calling it a “clear antitrust violation.” Musk vowed that his AI startup, xAI, “will take immediate legal action.”
At the center of the battle is Grok, the AI chatbot developed by Musk’s xAI as a direct competitor to ChatGPT. As of Tuesday morning, ChatGPT holds the No. 1 spot among free apps in the U.S. App Store, while Grok ranks sixth. Google’s Gemini chatbot trails far behind at No. 57. Musk alleges favoritism, pointing to Apple’s partnership with OpenAI announced in June 2024, which integrates ChatGPT deeply into Apple devices.
“Apple is acting to block any AI firm other than OpenAI from reaching the top spot, violating antitrust laws,” Musk wrote. He also criticized Apple’s editorial choices, questioning why neither X nor Grok is included in the “Must Have” category despite their high rankings, and suggesting potential political bias.
This confrontation comes amid growing regulatory scrutiny of Apple. Earlier this year, a U.S. judge ruled Apple violated court orders related to App Store competition following Epic Games’ lawsuit. In April, the European Union fined Apple €500 million for blocking app developers from directing users to cheaper offers outside the App Store, a decision Apple is appealing.
Guggenheim Maintains Sell Rating on Tesla Ahead of Robotaxi Launch
Guggenheim reaffirmed its sell rating on Tesla shares ahead of the electric vehicle maker’s upcoming Robotaxi service launch in Austin.
“CEO Musk has indicated that Robotaxi operations in Austin will open to the public next month, which appears earlier than investor expectations and reflects confidence in the service and early feedback from invite-only riders,” wrote Guggenheim analyst Ronald Jewsikow. “The expandedFull Self-Driving (FSD) model supports bullish views on Tesla’s potential to convert its fleet into Robotaxis, and public access in Austin is a significant milestone toward attracting a broader, more discerning customer base.”
On Tuesday, 21 stocks in the S&P 500 reached new 52-week highs.
Notable companies hitting all-time or multi-year highs include:
- Electronic Arts — trading at levels not seen since its 1989 IPO
- Meta Platforms — at all-time highs since its May 2012 IPO
- TKO Group — hitting highs since the merger of Endeavor and WWE
- eBay — trading at levels not seen since its 1998 IPO
- BlackRock — at highs dating back to its 1999 IPO
- Goldman Sachs — trading at levels not seen since its May 1999 IPO
- Morgan Stanley — reaching highs since its 1997 merger with Dean, Witter, Discover & Co
- Jacobs Solutions — trading at highs dating back to 1974
- Parker Hannifin — at all-time highs since its 1964 IPO
- United Rentals — trading at levels not seen since its December 1997 IPO
Conversely, 10 S&P 500 stocks fell to new 52-week lows:
- McCormick — lowest since June 2024
- Oneok — lowest since February 2024
- FactSet Research Systems — lowest since June 2022
- Adobe — lowest since March 2023
- Salesforce.com — lowest since May 2024
- Fair Isaac — lowest since June 2024
- Gartner — lowest since June 2022
- International Flavors & Fragrances — lowest since October 2023
- Healthpeak Properties — lowest since March 2024
- Mid-America Apartment Communities — lowest since June 2024
Top Gainers
Several stocks experienced significant gains. Some of the top gainers included:
Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP) +32.89%
Hanesbrands, Inc. (HBI) +27.95%
Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) +26.95%
Sea Limited (SE) +19.07%
AAON, Inc. (AAON) +15.09%
Top Losers
The top US stock losers today, based on percentage change included:
Celanese Corp. (CE) -13.07%
Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) -9.08%
Cardinal Health (CAH) -7.21%
Axon Enterprise (AXON) -6.12%
XPeng, Inc. (XPEV) -6.08%
Notables
- Hanesbrands, Gildan Activewear — Hanesbrands surged over 42% following a Financial Times report, citing sources, that the company is close to a nearly $5 billion acquisition deal with Gildan. Meanwhile, Gildan’s shares dropped more than 5%.
- Sinclair — Shares jumped over 18% after Sinclair, a major TV station owner, announced a strategic review that could lead to a merger or spinoff of its Ventures division.
- On Holding AG — U.S. shares of the Swiss sportswear firm climbed about 11% after reporting second-quarter revenue of 749 million Swiss francs, beating analyst expectations of 705 million francs. The company also raised its full-year revenue forecast.
- Satellite communications firm AST SpaceMobile surged after announcing ambitious plans to launch between 45 and 60 satellites by 2026, with at least five orbital launches expected by the end of Q1 next year.
- Mercury Systems jumped following a strong fiscal fourth-quarter report that beat analyst expectations. The defense contractor posted adjusted earnings of 47 cents per share on $273.1 million in revenue, surpassing FactSet estimates of 22 cents per share on $244 million in revenue.
- Hillenbrand climbed after delivering better-than-expected fiscal third-quarter results, reporting earnings of 51 cents per share on revenue of $598.9 million. Analysts had forecast 50 cents per share on $572.4 million. The company also raised the low end of its full-year earnings guidance.
- Sonos gained after a regulatory filing revealed CEO Thomas Conrad purchased 92,300 shares last Friday.
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL) soared, driven by a strong 53% quarterly revenue increase and early momentum in its payments network.
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW) rose after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight, citing expectations for bookings growth to reaccelerate.
- Chipotle (CMG) gained following a similar upgrade from Piper Sandler, which highlighted an improved risk/reward profile for the shares.
- Apple (AAPL) slipped amid reports that Tesla CEO Elon Musk threatened “immediate” legal action against Apple, accusing the company of unfairly favoring OpenAI on iPhones, according to Bloomberg.
- ai (BBAI) plunged after missing quarterly revenue expectations and lowering its 2025 revenue forecast.
- On Holding (ONON) surged following better-than-expected earnings results.
- Tesla (TSLA) climbed likely buoyed by President Trump’s extension of the tariff deadline on Chinese imports by an additional three months.
- CoreWeave (CRWV) jumped nearly 8% ahead of its earnings report after the close, with the stock up 32% since the start of the month.
- Intel (INTC) rose after CEO Pat Gelsinger described his recent meeting with President Trump as “candid” and “constructive.” Trump called the discussion “interesting.”
What to Watch Ahead
Earnings tomorrow will arrive from Brinker International Inc. (EAT), Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), Coherent Corp. (COHR), Elbit Systems Inc. (ESLT), Loar Holdings Inc. (LOAR), Performance Food Group Inc. (PFGC), and Stantec Inc. (STN).
Economic data tomorrow includes EIA Crude Oil Inventories and the MBA Mortgage Applications Index.
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