Evening Market Recap

Sophia Reyes · August 18, 2025 6:09 PM

Market Snapshot for Monday August 18^th, 2025

S&P 500 – 6,449.15 (-0.01%)

Dow Jones – 44,911.82 (-0.076%)

NASDAQ – 21,629.77 (+0.031%)

Market Performance

The major U.S. indexes ended Monday little changed, pausing after last week’s gains as traders looked ahead to retail earnings and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 34.30 points, or 0.08%, to finish at 44,911.82. The S&P 500 edged lower by 0.01% to 6,449.15, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.03% to close at 21,629.77. Meta Platforms fell 2.3% and Microsoft slipped 0.6%, weighing on the broader market.

Despite Monday’s flat close, the indexes are coming off back-to-back weekly gains. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have risen in four of the past five weeks, with small-cap stocks leading last week’s advance as investors bet on forthcoming rate cuts.

Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Monday as investors awaited talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Economic Takeaways –

• Volodymyr Zelensky met with President Trump and European allies in Washington, D.C., as the Ukrainian leader navigates U.S. pressure to consider a peace agreement that could benefit Russia. The discussion comes after Trump’s recent summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska.
• The release of minutes from the Fed’s July meeting on Wednesday will set the stage for Jackson Hole in a week light on economic data.
• Preliminary readings suggest mixed trends in services and manufacturing. The S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI is forecast to slip to 54.0 in August from 55.7 in July, while Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 50.6 from 49.8.
• Data from China Friday showed signs of economic weakness. Industrial output fell in July to its lowest level since last November, and fixed-asset investment came in below economists’ forecasts, CNBC reported, citing LSEG data.
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called the latest inflation data “a little mixed” in an interview with CNBC on Friday.
• The CME FedWatch Tool now shows an 85% probability of a rate cut next month, with 15% odds of no change. Futures markets still price in at least two rate cuts before year-end.

Gold –

• Gold prices were largely steady on Monday, as investors focused on U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian and European leaders later in the day, and the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole this week.
• Spot gold was flat at $3,334.81 per ounce at 11:56 a.m. ET (1556 GMT), after hitting its lowest level since August 1 earlier in the session.
• S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.1% to $3,379.70.

Oil –

• Oil prices settled 1% higher on Monday after talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart in the wake of an inconclusive U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska on Friday.
• Brent crude futures settled 75 cents, or 1.14%, higher at $66.60 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained about 62 cents, or 0.99%, to $63.42.

Crypto –

• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell Monday to just above $115,000 after hitting $123,500 last Thursday, as investors took profits from last week’s rally.
• Year-to-date, BTC has risen 23%, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and corporate treasury purchases.
• Ether (ETH-USD) also declined 3% to around $4,350, retreating from recent highs near $4,900.
• MicroStrategy has expanded its Bitcoin holdings with a $51.4M purchase.

Fed’s Jackson Hole Speech in Focus: Investors Look for September Rate-Cut Signals

Fed officials are set to do some fly-fishing at a traditional lodge in Wyoming, while investors hope they reel in a clear signal of a September rate cut as stocks hover near record highs.

The highlight of the Jackson Hole gathering will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday. Powell has historically used this platform to drop hints about future rate moves.

Last year, he indicated a rate cut was likely, and the Fed subsequently lowered rates at its September and December meetings. Still, the event remains tricky for traders to interpret.

“Powell could lay the groundwork for a 25-basis-point cut in September, push back against those expectations, or barely touch on policy at all. From a market perspective, any hint of a rate cut would be welcomed, while pushing back on those expectations could trigger a decline,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.

S&P 500 Earnings Beat Expectations, Recession Fears Fade

According to FactSet, 81% of S&P 500 companies have reported positive earnings-per-share surprises, with the same percentage also exceeding revenue expectations. Sectors posting above-80% earnings beats include industrials, healthcare, financials, consumer staples, real estate, and information technology. Companies providing positive guidance have outnumbered those offering negative outlooks.

Second-quarter earnings growth is tracking at 11.8%, marking the S&P 500’s third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

Interestingly, despite ongoing uncertainty from the White House, corporate commentary on the economy has become less pessimistic—at least regarding recession fears. The term “recession” was mentioned in just 16 earnings calls this season, far below the five-year average of 74 and the 10-year average of 61, according to FactSet.

Looking ahead, whether this earnings season represents the peak for 2025 remains uncertain. Tariff-driven inflation looms for the third quarter, and companies will enter the next reporting cycle with historically elevated valuations and expectations for strong 2026 guidance or broadly bullish commentary.

Top Gainers

Several stocks experienced significant gains. Some of the top gainers included:

Propanc Biopharma (PPCB) +103.83%

Dayforce, Inc. (DAY) +25.98%

Cipher Mining Inc. (CIFR) +16.12%

Applied Digital Corp. (APLD) +15.97%

Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) +12.93%

Top Losers

The top US stock losers today, based on percentage change included:

Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP) -21.97%

Qfin Holdings, Inc. (QFIN) -6.42%

Comstock Resources (CRK) -5.71%

Antero Resources (AR) -5.69%

Alcoa Corp. (AA) -5.24%

Notables

• Shares of Intel (INTC) fell to session lows after Bloomberg reported the Trump administration was contemplating a 10% stake in the chip maker.
• Shares of Soho House (SHCO) surged on Monday following reports that the private members’ club operator is planning to go private, according to Yahoo Finance’s Jake Conley.
• Bitcoin miner and data center operator Terawulf (WULF) saw its stock jump after announcingthat Google is taking a 14% stake in the company.
• Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk (NVO) saw its U.S.-listed shares rise over 5% Monday after the open, following the company’s announcement that it will offer patients its diabetes drug Ozempic at less than half the usual price for cash payments.
• Solar stocks continued rallying on Monday after the Trump administration clarified new eligibility requirements for tax credits that weren’t as burdensome as feared.
• CVS Health (CVS) rose after UBS upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral, citing early signs that improvements in the healthcare benefits segment are on track.
• Duolingo (DUOL) climbed following a KeyBanc upgrade to Overweight from Sector Weight, highlighting multiple growth drivers.
• Tesla (TSLA) slipped, extending a three-day losing streak amid light news flow.
• Home Depot (HD) held steady early Monday after strong gains last week ahead of tomorrow’s earnings, boosted by hopes for lower interest rates and positive sentiment in housing and home improvement stocks.
• UnitedHealth (UNH) soared 12% Friday, its largest single-day gain since 2008, after Berkshire Hathaway revealed a 5-million-share stake worth roughly $1.6 billion.
• Solar stocks shone Friday following Treasury guidance on renewable project tax credits under Trump’s budget plan. Names climbing included NextEra Energy (NEE), AES Corp (AES), and SunRun (RUN), which is up 4% this morning.
• Dayforce (DAY) surged 26% pre-market after Bloomberg reported potential buyout interest in the HR software company.
• Meta Platforms (META) shares slid nearly 3% after The Information, via Reuters, reported the company is undertaking its fourth restructuring of artificial intelligence operations in just six months.
• Target (TGT) gained 3% after Evercore ISI placed it on its tactical outperform list, noting this week’s earnings report could exceed expectations and spark a “relief rally.”
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW), the cybersecurity firm projected fiscal 2026 revenue and profit ahead of Wall Street forecasts, citing strong demand for its AI-driven security solutions. Shares climbed nearly 5% in after-hours trading.

What to Watch Ahead

Attention this week turns to results from major retailers including Home Depot, Lowe’s, Walmart, and Target. Investors are watching for signals on consumer strength amid concerns over high valuations, tariffs, and cooling job growth. Wells Fargo strategist Scott Wren cautioned that earnings will likely show the impact of tariffs, inflation, and slowing economic momentum, adding that the recent equity rally may stall.

Markets will also keep a close eye on the Fed’s annual gathering in Jackson Hole, where Powell’s speech could provide guidance on future rate moves. Futures markets currently assign an 83% probability of a rate cut at the September policy meeting, according to CME FedWatch data.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, set to be released Wednesday, will shape market expectations ahead of Jackson Hole in a week that is otherwise light on economic data.