Evening Market Recap

Sophia Reyes · August 29, 2025 6:11 PM

Market Snapshot for Friday August 29^th, 2025

S&P 500 – 6,460.26 (-0.64%)

Dow Jones – 45,544.88 (-0.20%)

NASDAQ – 21,455.55 (-1.15%)

Market Performance

S&P 500 Pulls Back from Record High on Friday but Poised for Fourth Consecutive Monthly Gain

Stocks retreated on Friday as investors made some profits ahead of a long weekend, following a week that saw the S&P 500 hit a record high and Nvidia deliver strong earnings. New inflation data added caution to the market’s optimism, signaling that price pressures remain a concern as the new month begins.

The S&P 500 remained on track to notch its fourth consecutive monthly gain.

Newly released data on core personal consumption expenditures (PCE)—the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation that excludes food and energy—showed a 2.9% increase in July. This was in line with economists’ expectations but represents an acceleration from the previous month and marks the highest reading since February.

“The Fed has opened the door to potential rate cuts, but the scope of that easing will hinge on whether the labor market shows signs of weakness that outweigh persistent inflation,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “Today’s in-line PCE reading shifts focus back to jobs data, but for now, the odds still favor a September cut.”

Analysts suggest that Friday’s dip had more to do with normal profit-taking than any market alarm over inflation. Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird, noted that equities were already under pressure after a strong run, with the S&P 500 recently closing above the 6,500 mark for the first time.

“The PCE number was fine, but there’s a bit of an earnings overhang and perhaps some profit-taking after hitting all-time highs,” Mayfield said in an interview with CNBC.

Despite Friday’s pullback, the major indexes are set to finish August with notable gains. The Dow has climbed roughly 3% for the month, the S&P 500 is up nearly 2%, and the Nasdaq has advanced more than 1%.

The timing of these highs is notable, as September has historically been a challenging month for equities. According to The Stock Trader’s Almanac, September has been the biggest losing month for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq since 1950. Over the past decade, the S&P 500 in particular has struggled in September, averaging a 0.7% decline during the month, per data from Bespoke. Investors will now watch whether the recent momentum can carry through a historically difficult period.

Economic Takeaways –

• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation—the Fed’s preferred measure—rose in July largely in line with expectations. Headline PCE inflation held steady at 2.6% year-over-year, while core PCE, which excludes food and energy, ticked up slightly to 2.9% from 2.8% last month.
• The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment surveyreleased Friday showed year-ahead inflation expectations among Americans climbed to 4.8% in August, up from July’s reading of 4.5%. The headline consumer sentiment index came in at 58.2 for the month, down 5.7% from last month and 14.3% from a year ago.
• In his annual Jackson Hole address, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the delicate balancing act facing policymakers. While the Fed’s policy rate currently stands between 4.25% and 4.5%, Powell noted that inflation could drift higher in the near term even as the labor market begins to soften.
• Bank ETFs are on track to notch their biggest monthly gains of 2025. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE)has jumped more than 9% so far in August. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), meanwhile, has surged close to 10% on the month.
• Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook’s lawyer has asked a federal judgeduring a court hearing to issue an order that temporarily bars President Donald Trump from firing her.
• Atlanta Fed tracker now sees Q3 GDP growth at 3.5%.

Gold –

• Gold prices climbed on Friday and were on track for their best monthly gain since April, fueled by fresh inflation data and heightened expectations for a September rate cut.
• Spot gold rose 0.7% to around $3,442 per ounce, pushing bullion’s August gains above 4.5%. As a non-yielding asset, gold tends to perform well in a low-interest-rate environment.
• “Gold is benefiting from the uncertainty surrounding Fed independence, as reflected in inflows into gold ETFs of just under 15 tons over the past two days. Still, upside above $3,400 appears increasingly limited,” Commerzbank said in a note.
• Wall Street is growing bullish on the safe-haven metal. Bank of America on Friday raised its six-year average gold price forecast by 6% to $3,049 per ounce, citing factors such as the U.S. structural deficit and former President Donald Trump’s threats to the Fed’s independence.

Oil –

• Oil prices fell on Friday as traders looked toward weaker demand in the U.S., the world’s largest oil market, and a boost in supply this autumn from OPEC and its allies.
• Brent crude futures for October delivery , which expired on Friday, settled at $68.12 a barrel, down 50 cents, or 0.73%. The more active contract for November finished down 53 cents, or 0.78%, at $67.45.

Crypto –

• Bitcoin futures (/BTC) slid nearly 2% early Friday and are down 5.6% in August despite hitting record highs mid-month. Crypto-linked names Circle Internet Group (CRCL), MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Coinbase (COIN) also slipped about 1%.

Northlight’s Zaccarelli Sees Bull Market Staying on Track Despite Seasonal Headwinds

The stock market could continue its upward trajectory even as it enters a seasonally weak stretch, according to Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management.

“September is typically the weakest month of the year on average, but we don’t see anything on the horizon that could derail this bull market,” Zaccarelli said. “Any volatility in September or October—which is normal for this time of year—will likely present a buying opportunity, especially as we position for a year-end rally. This is particularly true if the Fed moves to cut rates outside of a recession.”

China Emerges as World’s Top-Performing Stock Market, BofA Reports

Over the past two years, China has quietly become the world’s best-performing stock market, with equities rising another 22% so far in 2025, according to Bank of America.

China’s economy has held a generally firm footing this year, supported by robust exports and government stimulus measures despite ongoing tariff pressures. Official and private surveys point to improving manufacturing activity, helping to lift segments of the economy.

Yet, Bank of America notes that Chinese stocks remain near historical lows relative to Chinese government bonds—a sharp contrast with the U.S., Europe, and Japan, where equities are trading near all-time highs versus government debt.

Top Gainers

Several stocks experienced significant gains. Some of the top gainers included:

Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) +16.78%

IREN Limited (IREN) +14.93%

Alibaba Group (BABA) +12.95%

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) +10.58%

Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) +9.09%

Top Losers

The top US stock losers today, based on percentage change included:

Marvell Technologies (MRVL) -18.60%

Chagee Holdings (CHA) -13.14%

Rambus, Inc. (RMBS) -9.03%

Dell Technologies (DELL) -8.90%

Celestica, Inc. (CLS) -8.29%

Notables

• Petco Health & Wellness (WOOF) — The pet retailer and veterinary services provider jumped 22% after raising its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance. The company’s second-quarter earnings per share also beat analyst estimates, according to FactSet.
• Celsius (CELH) — Shares climbed more than 4% following news that PepsiCo increased its stake in the energy drink maker to 11%.
• NeoGenomics (NEO) — The cancer diagnostic testing firm soared 24% after receiving a favorable ruling in a patent lawsuit against Natera.
• Privia Health (PRVA) — Shares rose about 6% after the healthcare technology company, which provides administrative support to physicians, raised its full-year guidance. Privia now expects adjusted EBITDA of $113 million to $116 million, up from the previous $104 million–$110 million range.
• Alibaba (BABA) — The Chinese e-commerce powerhouse rose more than 3% after The Wall Street Journal reported that the company has developed a more advanced chip, aiming to fill the gap left by Nvidia’s sales restrictions in China. Meanwhile, Nvidia shares extended their recent losses, slipping about 1% in premarket trading.
• Caterpillar (CAT) — The industrial equipment giant fell nearly 3% in premarket trading after warning that tariffs could result in a $1.5 billion–$1.8 billion hit this year.
• Dell Technologies (DELL) — Shares dropped 5% after the company issued third-quarter earnings-per-share guidance below Wall Street expectations, even though Dell still beat analyst estimates on both revenue and earnings for the latest quarter.
• Gap (GPS) is showing signs of a turnaround and is poised for stronger growth, according to JPMorgan. On Friday, the bank reiterated its overweight rating on the stock and raised its price target to $32 from $29, signaling nearly 48% upside from Thursday’s closing price.
• Nvidia (NVDA) ended Thursday little changed and slipped Friday. The chipmaker beat consensus earnings, but data center revenue came in shy of Wall Street expectations. Shares briefly dropped 3% in Wednesday’s post-market before rebounding, with the broader tech sector ultimately finishing near the top of Thursday’s performance leaderboard.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) tumbled despite a 69% year-over-year jump in data center revenue. Results were otherwise in line with forecasts, but shares—already down 30% this year—extended losses on the miss. Hormel Foods (HRL) sank more than 13% Thursday after posting weaker-than-expected adjusted earnings and warning that commodity inflation will weigh on results.
• In contrast, Affirm (AFRM) surged after delivering a 33% revenue gain that easily topped estimates. Autodesk (ADSK) rallied 10% pre-market on an earnings and revenue beat alongside raised guidance, while Alibaba (BABA) climbed 4.4% after earnings beat forecasts. Strength in BABA may also reflect reports of a new in-house AI chip. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) gained 3.6% after boosting its full-year outlook.
• Tesla (TSLA) fell as European sales dropped 40% year-over-year in July—the seventh straight monthly decline. Caterpillar (CAT) slid 3% after warning tariffs could trim $1.5–$1.8 billion off 2025 earnings and push margins toward the low end of its range. Dell (DELL) dropped 6.3% despite beating estimates and raising its full-year outlook, as Q3 EPS guidance lagged consensus.
• Retail names struggled: Bath & Body Works (BBWI), Best Buy (BBY), and Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) all slipped post-earnings.
• Alphabet (GOOGL) is now up nearly 28% over the past two months. Solid earnings and relative valuation strength among the “Magnificent Seven” continue to fuel investor interest, even amid regulatory overhang.

What to Watch Ahead

The release of August’s jobs report next week signals the beginning of a potentially turbulent month for a market that has been trading near perfection.

Key market drivers for the week of September 1–5, 2025, include the August employment report and the onset of September, historically one of the most volatile months for stocks. Markets will be closed on Monday, September 1, for Labor Day.

Following all-time highs in August, analysts are monitoring a range of factors that could introduce volatility in the coming weeks.