Market Snapshot for Thursday September 4th, 2025
S&P 500 – 6,502.08 (+0.83%)
Dow Jones – 45,621.29 (+0.77%)
NASDAQ – 21,707.69 (+0.98%)
Market Performance
Stocks soar: S&P 500 sets fresh high amid jobs report anticipation.
The S&P 500 closed at a new record high on Thursday, propelled by an afternoon rally that lifted stocks solidly into positive territory despite weak private employment data earlier in the day. Investors are now focused on Friday’s major jobs report, hoping for a figure that supports potential Federal Reserve rate cuts without sparking recession fears.
The broad-market S&P 500 finished up 0.83% at 6,502.08, marking its 21st record close of the year. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.98% to 21,707.69, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 350.06 points, or 0.77%, to 45,621.29.
Thursday’s ADP private payrolls report showed an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, below economists’ expectations of 75,000 and under July’s revised 106,000. Yet equities moved higher as traders interpreted the data as weak enough to justify a Fed rate cut, but not so soft as to signal an imminent recession.
“The Federal Reserve’s free pass on the labor market has ended,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. “ADP data continue to reinforce the narrative that the pace of labor market gains has slowed, so you can expect the Fed to tilt its balance of risks toward cutting rates in September.”
Tech giant Amazon also bolstered the market, with shares climbing more than 4% on optimism surrounding its partnership with AI company Anthropic.
Economic Takeaways –
- Treasury yields fell after the ADP report, easing some market pressure following earlier gains, when the 30-year yield briefly exceeded 5% amid uncertainty over tariffs and Fed independence.
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 30 rose to 237,000, above expectations and up 8,000 from the prior week, signaling labor market cooling. Meanwhile, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI exceeded forecasts for August, showing continued growth in the services sector.
- Fed funds futures following the ADP release indicated a 97% chance of a September rate cut, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
- The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies.
- Private-sector employment grew by 54,000 in August, according to ADP, missing expectations for an 85,000 gain. Nearly all the hiring came from leisure and hospitality (+50,000), while job losses in trade, transportation and utilities (-17,000) and education and health (-12,000) offset gains elsewhere.
- Mortgage rates moved slightly lower again this week following the Labor Day long weekend, reaching a fresh 2025 low. The average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.5% this week through Wednesday, according to Freddie Mac data, down from 6.56% a week earlier. The average 15-year rate was 5.6%, down from 5.69% last week.
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said his forecast is that it will “become appropriate” to cut interest rates “over time,” without clarifying the timing or pace of such moves.
- Traders are pricing ina 97% chance of a cut as of Thursday morning, compared with around 91.7% Wednesday before the JOLTS data was released.
Gold –
- Gold futures (/GC) traded above $3,600 per ounce — an all-time high — up sharply from recent lows below $3,400.
- Gold (GC=F) could surge to $5,000 next year if the Federal Reserve’s independence comes under pressure, Goldman Sachs analysts warned. The metal has climbed more than 5% over the past five sessions on rising expectations the Fed will cut rates at its meeting later this month. The rally follows President Trump’s move to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook and nominate a rate-cut supporter in her place.
Oil –
- Oil prices eased about 1% to a two-week low on Thursday on a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories last week and expectations that OPEC+ producers will increase output targets at a meeting this weekend.
- Brent crude futures fell 65 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $66.95 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 49 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $63.48.
Crypto –
- ETF data shows about $173M flowing out of Ether funds this week, while Bitcoin ETFs have seen $634M in inflows. Spot ETH is down ~2% since Sunday, while Bitcoin is up 1%, as traders eye a potential return to crypto’s top dog amid September volatility.
- Bitcoin price sinks into ‘critical support’ under $110K in 2% daily dip.
BTIG warns S&P 500 could slip if it breaks key 6,400 level
BTIG sees potential downside for the S&P 500 if the index falls below the crucial 6,400 mark.
“In a near repeat of the July–August pattern, weakness so far has been limited to two days, with the S&P 500 holding the 6,400 area. Having tested and held the 6,360–6,400 range twice, a third test would be particularly significant. Our view is that a third test later this month could fail, prompting a much-needed pullback toward February’s highs around 6,150,” the firm said in a Wednesday note.
Chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky added that the S&P is likely to trade in a range in the near term, though seasonal weakness may emerge in the second half of September.
“With several key economic reports coming over the next 5–10 days, we expect a choppy, range-bound market until mid-September. Historically, the back half of the month tends to be weaker, so bulls are far from out of the woods yet,” he said.
Citi sees near-term caution for Nvidia despite strong AI outlook
Citi analyst Atif Malik maintained his buy rating on Nvidia in a Thursday note, citing strong AI market growth for next year and a smooth expected transition from the company’s GB200 to GB300 chips. However, Malik warned that Google is indirectly competing with Nvidia by offering its Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) to companies like Meta, OpenAI, and Oracle amid a broader GPU shortage.
“We expect NVDA stock to take a breather after a strong run over the past six months, with Jensen Huang’s October 28 GTC keynote likely serving as the next catalyst,” Malik said.
His $170 price target suggests limited downside for Nvidia, which last closed at $170.62 per share.
Top Gainers
Several stocks experienced significant gains. Some of the top gainers included:
American Eagle (AEO) +37.96%
Ciena Corp. (CIEN) +23.31%
Sandisk Corp. (SNDK) +17.90%
Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) +16.18%
Mineralys Therapeutics (MLYS) +13.23%
Top Losers
The top US stock losers today, based on percentage change included:
Figma, Inc. (FIG) -19.92%
Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) -11.03%
NuScale Power (SMR) -10.86%
TMC the metals company (TMC) -9.70%
Bullish (BLSH) -9.68%
Notables
- PayPal (PYPL) shares fell more than 2% after CFO Jamie Miller said the company still has “a lot more work to do” to achieve profitable growth. She added that she’s “encouraged by a lot of the different elements” the company is seeing.
- Ciena (CIEN) jumped 18% after reporting stronger-than-expected fiscal third-quarter results. Ciena earned 67 cents per share on $1.22 billion in revenue, surpassing analysts’ estimates of 53 cents per share on $1.17 billion. Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue guidance also came in above expectations.
- Gap (GAP) rose about 5% following news that it is expanding into beauty, beginning with its Old Navy brand. The move represents a strategic shift as the apparel company enters one of retail’s most resilient segments in recent years.
- Analysts led by Vivek Arya on Thursday reiterated a buy rating on Credo, a maker of active electrical cables (AEC), and hiked his price by $45, or 38%, to $165 from $120 previously.
- Amazon (AMZN) shares climbed more than 3% on Thursday, making it one of the S&P 500’s top performers for the day. Investors are eyeing a major revenue opportunity following this week’s mega-funding round for Anthropic, the AI startup backed by the e-commerce giant. The stock is up over 6% year to date, including a roughly 10% rebound in the past month, driven by multiple catalysts: its growing partnership with Anthropic, expansion of same-day grocery delivery, and a new deal for its satellite-internet business.
- Salesforce (CRM) shares fell after the company issued a third-quarter revenue forecast that missed expectations, suggesting its AI platform has yet to deliver the anticipated payoff.
- American Eagle (AEO) stock jumped as the apparel retailer projected stronger sales, crediting campaigns starring actress Sydney Sweeney and NFL player Travis Kelce.
- Broadcom (AVGO) rose 0.4% ahead of results due after the close. The company’s large software business remains under pressure amid AI competition concerns.
- Nvidia (NVDA) flattened before the open but is down 7.6% from last month’s record high above $184. Shares have traded below their 50-day moving average of $171.59 for the past two days — the first sustained dip under that level since late April.
- Figma (FIG) fell 15% in pre-market trading after its first quarterly report as a public company missed revenue estimates despite 41% year-over-year growth. Profits were flat versus expectations for a gain.
- Ciena (CIEN) rose more than 17% ahead of the open on stronger-than-expected results tied to robust data-center demand.
- GitLab (GTLB) dropped 7% despite topping profit estimates and raising its outlook.
- Bitcoin futures (/BTC) fell another 1.5% this morning and remain below their 50-day moving average near $115,000.
- Campbell Soup (CPB) gained more than 7% Wednesday after beating earnings expectations. CEO Mick Beekhuizen said the company is benefiting from cost-conscious consumers cooking at home.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) added 4% after its fiscal third-quarter earnings came in at 44 cents, above the 43 cents analysts polled by LSEG had expected.
What to Watch Ahead
Friday’s highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show a gain of 75,000 jobs.
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