Market Snapshot for Friday September 5th, 2025
S&P 500 – 6,481.50 (-0.32%)
Dow Jones – 45,400.86 (-0.48%)
NASDAQ – 21,700.39 (-0.034%)
Market Performance
Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq End Lower After Weaker-Than-Expected U.S. Jobs Report; Bond Yields Slide, Dollar Falls
U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday following a softer-than-expected jobs report, with the Dow posting a weekly loss. Investors are now pricing in the possibility of three Federal Reserve rate cuts by the end of the year after data showed hiring in August slowed more than anticipated.
The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, backing off the all-time closing high hit on Thursday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped just below the flatline. The declines mark a pullback from sizable gains earlier in the session.
JPMorgan and Wells Fargo paced the negative reversal on fears a slowing economy may hit loan growth. Industrials Boeing and GE Aerospace also got hit, as a troubled economy could dampen order growth.
Economic Takeaways –
- The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage dropped 16 basis points to 6.29% Friday. This is a major change from May, when the rate on the 30-year fixed peaked at 7.08%. Homebuilder stocks Lennar, DR Horton and Pulte gained ground.
- Two-year Treasury yields—highly sensitive to near-term Fed policy—dropped to their lowest point in three years, while the 10-year yield slipped to 4.07%.
- The dollar also weakened, fueling a classic “bad news is good news” reaction among investors.
- The U.S. economy added just 22,000 jobs in August versus forecasts for 75,000, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2%.
- June’s nonfarm payrolls were revised down by 27,000, showing a loss of 13,000 jobs rather than a gain. July’s figures were revised up by 6,000. These adjustments come on the heels of a much larger change to the July report, when the government cut a combined 258,000 jobs from May and June data.
- CME Group had the odds of a cut very high before the report — around 97% to 3%. But after it confirmed the severe summer slowdown, the odds almost immediately shifted to 100% on a 25-point cut this month.
- Analysts caution that the S&P 500 must hold above 6,400 to sustain its recent rally, with the August jobs report rattling investor confidence.
Gold –
- Gold futures (/GC) traded above $3,600 per ounce on Thursday, an all-time high. They’re up sharply from recent lows below $3,400 amid growing global fiscal concerns and uncertainty around U.S. tariffs. Gold is up nearly 40% year-to-date, driven by bets on an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut at this month’s policy meeting.
Oil –
- Oil prices fell on Friday as a weak U.S. jobs report dimmed the outlook for energy demand, while swelling supplies may grow further after OPEC and allied producers meet over the weekend.
- Brent crude futures settled at $65.50 a barrel, down $1.49, or 2.22%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $61.87, down $1.61, or 2.54%.
Crypto –
- Justin Sun, one of the biggest known backers of President Donald Trump‘s World Liberty Financial crypto venture, said on Friday that his tokens connected to the project had been frozen, without giving further details. Sun had spent at least $75 millionon World Liberty Financial tokens, known as $WLFI, according to his posts on X. The tokens became publicly tradable on Monday and fell in value.
Rate-Cut Bets Spike After Weak Jobs Report
Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts surged following the latest U.S. jobs report. Before the data, CME Group priced in a 97% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. After the report highlighted a sharp summer slowdown, that probability jumped to nearly 100%.
Traders also increased wagers on a larger “jumbo” cut of 50 basis points. As of 9:10 a.m. ET, roughly 88% of bets favor a 25-point cut, while 12% are on a 50-point reduction. Market sentiment is also tilting toward additional cuts in October and December, with most traders now pricing in the equivalent of three rate cuts by year-end.
Wolfe Research Stays Bullish Despite Anticipated ‘Choppier Trading’
Chris Senyek, chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research, said Friday that he remains optimistic on the market, even as he expects “choppier” trading in the coming weeks.
“Although we anticipate more volatile trading in the near term, given the seasonally weaker period for the S&P 500, we continue to maintain a bullish outlook and favor barbell positioning,” Senyek wrote in a note.
He highlighted technology as a top sector pick, along with communication services, financials, consumer staples, and utilities.
“Technology remains one of our favorite sectors through year-end, as we expect the AI spending narrative to stay strong for the remainder of the year,” he added.
Top Gainers
Several stocks experienced significant gains. Some of the top gainers included:
Guidewire Software (GWRE) +20.15%
Samsara, Inc. (IOT) +17.44%
Karman Holdings (KRMN) +17.12%
Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) +13.92%
ServiceTitan, Inc. (TTAN) +13.64%
Top Losers
The top US stock losers today, based on percentage change included:
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) -18.58%
Argan, Inc. (AGX) -11.07%
Kenvue, Inc. (KVUE) -9.35%
HeartFlow, Inc. (HTFL) -8.85%
Asana, Inc. (ASAN) -8.00%
Notables
- DocuSign (DOCU) stock rose on Friday after the company reported an earnings beat and revenue outlook raise on Thursday.
- lululemon (LULU) stock slumped on Friday in premarket trading after cutting its annual profit and sales forecasts, hurt by tepid.
- Broadcom (AVGO) jumped after beating earnings expectations. The company disclosed it’s working with ChatGPT maker OpenAI to design and build an AI chip that could rival Nvidia’s (NVDA).
- Alphabet (GOOG) extended its rally as its market cap approaches $3 trillion. Shares surged Tuesday after a favorable antitrust ruling but were slightly lower in pre-market trading.
- Tesla (TSLA) asked shareholders to approve a new $1 trillion pay package for CEO Elon Musk, tied to a series of tough performance targets over the next decade that could lift his stake to 25%.
- Lululemon (LULU) slid after issuing weaker-than-expected earnings guidance.
- Bitcoin futures (/BTC) gained 2.4% in early trading as the cryptocurrency tests support near the $110,000 level.
- Shares of Kenvue (KVUE) fell more than 12% Friday afternoon after a Wall Street Journal report suggested that Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy may associate the painkiller Tylenol with autism.
- Quanex Building Products (NX) fell 13% after posting weaker-than-expected fiscal third-quarter earnings. Quanex reported an adjusted 69 cents per share and lowered its fiscal 2025 guidance.
- Campbell’s (CPB) continued to rise following its quarterly report on Wednesday, climbing more than 3% and bringing its week-to-date gain to nearly 6%. Despite this rebound, shares remain down 19% year to date, as the company faces cost pressures from tariffs that have weighed on its annual profit outlook.
- Caleres (CAL), the parent company of Dr. Scholl’s surged 9%. While no clear catalyst was cited, the gain follows a 5% drop on Thursday after the company reported mixed second-quarter results.
What to Watch Ahead
U.S. investors face a week packed with inflation data, market uncertainty over tariffs, and fluctuations in government bond yields, all while equities hover near lofty valuations.
The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Thursday, despite a rough start to September—a month that has historically been challenging for stocks over the past 35 years. However, markets pulled back Friday after the monthly U.S. jobs report showed weaker-than-expected August hiring.
“September has traditionally seen sentiment soften,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments. “At the same time, stocks aren’t pricing in many risks right now. They look fully valued.”
Investors are now focused on next week’s inflation releases, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday and Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday, as well as the potential implications for interest rate cuts and the impact of tariffs on prices.
Following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell about rising employment risks, markets have widely anticipated a rate cut at the Fed’s September 16-17 meeting. The weaker jobs data has intensified those expectations: Fed Funds futures show a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, with roughly 10% betting on a larger 50-basis-point move. By year-end, futures data suggest nearly three rate cuts could be priced in.
“Recent optimism in equities has largely been driven by expectations of Fed easing,” Miskin said. “If that reverses, it could create headwinds for stocks.”
Apple (AAPL) will hold its annual fall event on Sept. 9 at its Cupertino, California, headquarters. The company is expected to unveil its latest iPhone and Apple Watch lineups, along with other exciting gadgets.
The star of the show is likely to be the highly anticipated iPhone 17 Air—a sleek, ultra-thin version of the iPhone. At just 5.5 millimeters thick, it’s noticeably slimmer than the standard iPhone (7.8 mm) and the Pro model (8.3 mm), earning it the nickname of Apple’s “lightweight, wellness-inspired” phone.
According to Apple watcher Mark Gurman at Bloomberg, the Air’s thinner design could come with some tradeoffs. The phone, for instance, could have just a single wide-angle camera, rather than the dual-camera setup found on the base iPhone or triple-camera setup found on the Pros.
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