Evening Market Recap

Sophia Reyes · September 11, 2025 7:05 PM

Market Snapshot for Thursday September 11^th, 2025

S&P 500 – 6,587.47 (+0.85%)

Dow Jones – 46,108.00 (+1.36%)

NASDAQ – 22,043.07 (+0.72%)

Market Performance

US Stocks Hit Record Highs as Sticky Inflation and Rising Jobless Claims Keep Fed Rate Cuts in Focus

US stocks closed at record levels on Thursday as new economic data showed a modest uptick in consumer prices for August and a rise in jobless claims to their highest point in nearly four years. The combination of inflation and labor market signals fueled expectations for the pace of interest rate cuts later this year.

Thursday’s economic data and market moves underscored a complex mix of persistent inflation pressures and a weakening labor market, fueling expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts while driving US stocks to new record highs. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August showed that inflation remained sticky, with the annual headline rate climbing to 2.9% from 2.7% in July and a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, slightly above economists’ expectations of 0.3%. Analysts noted that President Trump’s tariffs may be having an effect on consumer prices, continuing to weigh on household costs, while energy prices rose 0.7% in August, driven in part by a 6.2% year-over-year surge in electricity costs and higher natural gas prices, reflecting growing energy demand and grid upgrades.

Despite the inflation uptick, labor market data painted a softer picture, with weekly jobless claims jumping to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, reinforcing concerns about slowing employment growth. This combination of persistent inflation but weakening labor conditions led traders to anticipate that the Fed would proceed with a quarter-point rate cut at its September 17 meeting, with more than 90% probability priced in for that move and expectations for three total cuts before year-end. Mortgage rates continued their downward trajectory alongside declining 10-year Treasury yields, dropping to an 11-month low of 6.35% for the average 30-year fixed mortgage, reflecting expectations of imminent rate cuts.

Markets responded positively to this mix of data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 1.3% to close above 46,000 for the first time ever, while the S&P 500 rose over 0.8% to new highs, and the Nasdaq Composite added roughly 0.7%, surpassing 22,000 for the first time and marking its fourth consecutive record close of the week.

The rally was broad-based but also reflected sector-specific catalysts: Kroger and Adobe reported earnings on Thursday, Nvidia continued to dominate the AI chip landscape even as Oracle emerged as a potential competitor in the enterprise AI space, and Warner Bros. shares surged nearly 30% following reports of a potential acquisition bid from Paramount Skydance, backed by the Ellison family.

Taken together, Thursday’s developments highlighted the delicate balancing act for investors navigating sticky inflation, a softening labor market, and central bank policy expectations, while also keeping an eye on sector-specific news and corporate earnings that continue to drive market momentum.

Economic Takeaways –

• President Trump’s tariffs continued to add billions to US coffers as the summer ended with customs duties bringing in about $29.5 billion in August.
• Treasury yields are easing, with the 10-year at 4.0%, and the dollar is weakening against major currencies.
• Energy prices climbed 0.7% month-over-month in August, driven by a 1.9% increase in gasoline, helping to push headline inflation higher. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, held steady at 3.1% in line with forecasts.
• Initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, defying expectations for a small decline to 231,000. Continuing claims held at 1.94 million, while the unemployment rate remains low at 4.3% and job openings have dipped slightly below the number of unemployed. These figures suggest the labor market is cooling from a position of strength.
• Futures trading indicated just 6% odds of a 50-basis point Federal Reserve rate cut next Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
• The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, noting inflation is near its 2% medium-term target and expected to dip below 2% by 2026–27. Growth forecasts were tweaked up to 1.2% for 2025 but down to 1% for 2026, underscoring sluggish European GDP that could weigh on U.S. firms with heavy exposure there.
• The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model nudged its estimate for third-quarter U.S. growth to 3.1% from 3%.
• Mortgage rates continued their descent this week, reaching an 11-month low, as investors reacted to softer-than-expected employment data and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated policy meeting. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.35% in the week ending Wednesday, down from 6.5% just a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac. Meanwhile, 15-year fixed loans averaged 5.5%, a modest drop from 5.6%. Both figures mark the lowest levels observed since October 2024.

Gold –

• Gold prices pared losses on Thursday, holding at near-record highs as soft U.S. jobs data outweighed concerns from firmer inflation data, with investors still betting on the Federal Reserve easing interest rates next week.
• Spot gold was down 0.2% at $3,632.49 per ounce, as of 2:20 p.m. EDT (1820 GMT). Bullion had hit a record high of $3,673.95 on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.2% lower at $3,673.60.

Oil –

• Oil prices slid on Thursday, settling about 2% lower as concerns over possible softening of U.S. demand and broad oversupply offset threats to output from the conflict in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine.
• Brent crude futures fell $1.12, or 1.7%, to settle at $66.37 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.30, or 2.0%, to settle at $62.37.
• The Reuters Power Up newsletter provides everything you need to know about the global energy industry. Sign up here.
• The International Energy Agency said in its monthly report that world oil supply will rise more rapidly than expected this year due to planned output increases by OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia.

Crypto –

• Blockchain company Figure shares closed 24% above their IPO price at $31.11 on Thursday.
• Winklevoss-founded crypto exchange Gemini was over 20 times oversubscribed revealed sources.

Fed Still Poised for Rate Cuts Despite Sticky Inflation as Jobless Claims Rise

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting remain firmly in place, even after Thursday’s consumer price report showed inflation remaining stubbornly high. The August CPI data revealed that prices continue to rise at a pace above the Fed’s 2% target, signaling that inflationary pressures have not yet eased.

Economists and market watchers note that the central bank’s motivation for cutting rates is increasingly tied to weakness in the labor market rather than improvements in inflation. “The CPI is still too firm,” said Claudia Sahm of New Century Advisors. “This is not consistent with making progress toward 2%. When [Fed officials] cut next week, it will not be because inflation is under control—it will be because we have bad news on employment.”

Recent weekly jobless claims underscore this concern, jumping to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years. The rise in unemployment applications suggests cracks are forming in the labor market, giving the Fed justification to lower borrowing costs in order to support growth. As a result, traders continue to price in a high probability of a 25-basis-point cut next week, with the majority expecting multiple cuts before the end of the year.

The combination of sticky inflation and a softening labor market highlights the balancing act facing policymakers: manage persistent price pressures while responding to signs of economic slowdown. Investors are watching closely, as the Fed’s decisions in the coming weeks could have significant ripple effects across markets, from stocks to mortgages and beyond.

Top Gainers

Several stocks experienced significant gains. Some of the top gainers included:

Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) +79.52%

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) +28.95%

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) +17.60%

Jyong Biotech Ltd. (MENS) +16.85%

Lionsgate Studios (LION) +15.89%

Top Losers

The top US stock losers today, based on percentage change included:

QMMM Holdings (QMMM) -31.02%

Avidity Biosciences (RNA) -11.55%

Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) -8.46%

Paymentus Holdings (PAY) -6.45%

Oracle Corp. (ORCL) -6.23%

Notables

• Alibaba jumped more than 8% after announcing a $3.2 billion zero-coupon convertible bond to fund cloud expansion, technology upgrades, and e-commerce initiatives, signaling strong investor confidence in the company’s long-term growth.
• Warner Bros (WBD) stock jumped as much as 30% on Thursday afternoon after the Wall Street Journal reported that Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is preparing a majority cash bid to acquire its rival.
• Adobe (ADBE) gained as investors positioned for its earnings release after the close. The stock has been under pressure this year amid concerns that the rise of AI-powered content creation tools could erode Adobe’s competitive edge.
• Kroger (KR) rose after posting quarterly results this morning and raising its full-year outlook.
• Oracle (ORCL) surged an extraordinary 36% Wednesday—its strongest single-day gain since 1992—after reporting a 360% jump in its order backlog, roughly four times Alphabet’s (GOOGL), according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The results fueled expectations that Oracle’s cloud growth could soon surpass Alphabet’s. Later, The Wall Street Journal reported Oracle and OpenAI had signed a $300 billion, five-year deal. Shares added another 1.5% in early Thursday trading.
• Oracle’s blockbuster update also powered chipmakers: the PHLX Semiconductor Index climbed 2.4% Wednesday, with Nvidia (NVDA) up more than 3.5% and Broadcom (AVGO) nearly 10%. Broadcom has now advanced more than 20% since last week’s earnings and 167% off its April low. Nvidia rose another 0.6% Thursday after DA Davidson upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral.
• Amazon (AMZN) tumbled as investors worried Oracle could be stealing cloud share, a theme that also pressured Alphabet. Apple (AAPL) dropped 3% on disappointment with its product launch but edged higher in early trading Thursday even after two analyst downgrades citing lagging AI progress.
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) fell after Erste Group cut its rating to Hold from Buy, saying operating income growth this year will likely trail 2024 levels.
• Utilities were a surprise winner Wednesday, climbing 1.7% as Oracle’s cloud-demand projections boosted enthusiasm for energy suppliers to data centers. Vistra Energy (VST), Constellation Energy (CEG), and NRG Energy (NRG) each jumped more than 5% Wednesday and extended gains Thursday morning.
• Bank of America analyst Ken Hoexter downgraded UPS (UPS) shares to an Underperform rating from Neutral and FedEx (FDX) stock to Neutral from Buy.
• Micron stock (MU) jumped as Citi analyst Christopher Danely lifted his price target on shares to $175 from $150, maintaining his Buy rating on the stock.

What to Watch Ahead

The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate—to keep inflation low while supporting full employment—faces fresh challenges as investors brace for next week’s rate decision. Following two key reports on Thursday, markets are largely pricing in a rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting, with expectations for at least a quarter-point reduction.