Market Snapshot for Friday September 12th, 2025
S&P 500 – 6,584.29 (-0.05%)
Dow Jones – 45,834.22 (0.59%)
NASDAQ – 22,141.10 (+0.44%)
Market Performance
Major U.S. stock indexes finished mixed on Friday as investors focused on next week’s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. The S&P 500, which had traded mostly in positive territory, closed down just 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%. The Nasdaq bucked the trend, rising 0.4% to secure its fifth consecutive record closing high.
Investors have been digesting weeks of economic data for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next move. Recent reports have highlighted clear signs of labor market weakness, with just over 20,000 jobs added last month and weekly initial jobless claims hitting a near four-year high.
At the same time, inflation remains persistent. Consumer prices rose last month, reflecting growing evidence that President Trump’s tariffs are increasingly affecting the broader economy.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, released Friday, showed a sharper-than-expected drop in confidence for September. Meanwhile, long-term inflation expectations jumped to 3.9%, as Americans expressed growing concern over the economic impact of tariffs.
Despite these pressures, investors are betting that inflation is still moderate enough for the Fed to cut rates. Traders currently see more than a 90% probability of a quarter-point rate reduction at the September meeting, according to CME Group data. Looking further ahead, roughly 75% of market participants expect the Fed to implement the equivalent of three additional cuts before year-end.
Economic Takeaways –
- Following September’s robust rally, government bonds are showing some weakness this morning: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed 4 basis points to 4.06%, still near the lower end of its 2025 range.
- The dollar is modestly stronger against a trade-weighted basket of currencies.
- WTI crude is moving higher amid concerns that Ukrainian drone strikes could disrupt Russian oil supplies and after President Trump urged G7 allies to hike tariffs on China and India to discourage their purchases of Russian oil.
- The University of Michigan’s preliminary September survey showed U.S. consumer sentiment falling to its weakest level since May, as households reported mounting concerns over inflation and the labor market. Long-term inflation expectations climbed to 3.9% from 3.5% in August, while fears about job losses also rose, echoing recent data showing hiring remains sluggish and layoffs are beginning to edge up.
- As of this morning, chances of a 25-basis point cut stood at 93% while odds of a 50-basis point cut were 7%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Gold –
- Gold prices rose on Friday, holding close to record highs hit earlier this week, as signs of a weakening U.S. labor market reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will deliver its first rate cut of the year next week.
- Spot gold was up 0.4% at $3,648.55 per ounce, as of 02:25 p.m. EDT (1825 GMT), close to Tuesday’s all-time high of $3,673.95. The metal has gained 1.7% so far this week and is poised for a fourth consecutive weekly advance.
Oil –
- Top of Form
- Oil prices rose on Friday after a Ukrainian drone attack suspended loadings from the largest port in western Russia, but gains were capped by concerns about U.S. demand.
- Brent crude futures settled at $66.99 a barrel, up 62 cents, or 0.93%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $62.69, a gain of 32 cents, or 0.51%.
Crypto –
- Crypto exchange Gemini Space Station (GEMI) began trading on the Nasdaq on Friday afternoon. The stock opened at $37.01, 32% above its initial public offering price of $28 per share. Shares continued to soar, reaching $40 as of 2 p.m. ET.
- Cryptocurrencies climbed on Friday and were on track for weekly gains. Bitcoin gained less than 1%, Ethereum gained 3.6%, Solana gained 5.4%, XRP and BNB moved over 1.5% higher.
IPO First-Day Gains Surge Toward 10-Year Highs, Led by Tech Sector
Tech IPOs are setting the pace for first-day trading gains in 2025. Unicorn Figma (FIG) priced its shares at $33 ahead of its July 31 debut, only to see them soar to $115.50 by the close — a staggering 250% above the initial offering price.
Similarly, just two months earlier, stablecoin infrastructure firm Circle Internet Group (CRCL) priced its IPO at $31, closing its first day at $83.23, a jump of more than 165%.
These dramatic “IPO pops” are becoming increasingly common, particularly in tech. In the first half of 2025, U.S. IPOs posted an average first-day gain of 27.5%, according to IPO advisory firm Rainmaker Securities. That figure is just shy of the decade-high first-half mark of 29.2% set in 2021 and nearly double the 15% average seen in the first half of last year. Among the 20 largest IPOs this year, first-day gains averaged 36%, Reuters reports.
Tech continues to dominate the IPO landscape. NYSE data shows the sector has posted the largest average first-day gains over the past year at 36.3%. It also had the second-highest proportion of IPOs opening above their expected price range — 41% — trailing only consumer goods. In contrast, more traditional sectors such as materials and consumer services have largely seen IPOs open within their expected ranges.
Consumer Sentiment Dips as Americans Express Concerns Over Trump’s Tariffs
Consumer confidence fell more than expected in September as worries about the impact of President Trump’s tariffs weighed on sentiment. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, released Friday, showed the headline index at 55.4 — below the 58 forecast by economists polled by Bloomberg and down from 58.2 in August.
Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s consumer surveys, noted that roughly 60% of respondents mentioned tariffs in unprompted comments, a level similar to last month. “Consumers continue to note multiple vulnerabilities in the economy, with rising risks to business conditions, labor markets, and inflation,” she said.
Long-term inflation expectations for the next five to 10 years rose to 3.9% in September, above the 3.4% economists had projected and up from 3.5% in August, though still below the April peak of 4.4%. Year-ahead expectations held steady at 4.8%, matching forecasts.
The report follows August’s CPI data, which showed a slight rise in consumer prices, highlighting the ongoing effects of tariffs. Still, recent signs of a weakening labor market are expected to be the primary driver behind the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut in September, though uncertainty remains over the size of the cut and the likelihood of additional reductions.
Top Gainers
Several stocks experienced significant gains. Some of the top gainers included:
IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) +18.19%
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) +16.70%
Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) +15.28%
Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR) +14.46%
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) +14.38%
Top Losers
The top US stock losers today, based on percentage change included:
Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) -13.78%
Credit Acceptance (CACC) -9.63%
NewAmsterdam (NAMS) -9.06%
Arista Networks (ANET) -8.92%
Accelerant Holdings (ARX) -7.97%
Notables
- Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) led S&P 500 gainers for the second day in a row, surging 16.7% after reports suggested that media rival Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is preparing a cash takeover bid. Paramount Skydance shares also climbed 7.6% on the news.
- Tesla (TSLA) shares jumped 7.4%, extending strong gains from Thursday amid expectations of an upcoming Fed rate cut. Despite lingering questions about the trajectory of its electric vehicle sales, CEO Elon Musk highlighted earlier this month that Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot business could eventually become the company’s primary value driver. This week, Tesla also unveiled the Megablock, a new industrial energy storage system designed to reduce costs and simplify large-scale energy project installations.
- Micron Technology (MU) continued its post-Thursday rally, climbing 4.4% to reach an all-time closing high. Analysts at Citi raised their price target on Micron, citing robust demand for its dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips and exposure to artificial intelligence.
- Arista Networks (ANET) suffered the largest loss in the S&P 500, dropping 8.9% following its analyst day. While the networking company projected 20% revenue growth in fiscal 2026 fueled by AI demand and received several price target upgrades, its forecast for long-term operating margins, which are expected to fall below fiscal 2025 levels, may have weighed on investor sentiment.
- Vaccine makers Moderna (MRNA) and Pfizer (PFE) fell sharply, declining 7.4% and 4%, respectively, after a report indicated that Trump administration health officials intend to link the deaths of 25 children to COVID-19 vaccines.
- After surging following its earnings report on Wednesday, Oracle (ORCL) shares slid 5.1% for a second consecutive session. While excitement had been driven by Oracle’s AI-driven backlog and reports of a $300 billion partnership with ChatGPT creator OpenAI, analysts noted that a significant portion of the company’s growth remains tied to a limited number of large clients.
- Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) made its public debut on the Nasdaq on Friday. Shares opened at $26.50 under the ticker symbol BRCB after the Scottsdale, Ariz.-based company initially offered 14.7 million shares at $20 each.
- Just a day after Boeing’s CEO acknowledged delays in certifying the company’s newest widebody jet, the Federal Aviation Administration announced plans to fine the aircraft manufacturer $3.1 million for multiple safety violations. Boeing shares dropped more than 1% on Friday, putting the stock on track for a weekly decline of 5.5%.
What to Watch Ahead
The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate—to keep inflation low while supporting full employment—faces fresh challenges as investors brace for next week’s rate decision on Wednesday.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are set to meet early next week in Madrid for another round of U.S.-China trade discussions, focusing on a potential TikTok ban and looming November tariff deadlines.
According to the Treasury Department, the talks will cover “trade issues of mutual interest,” including TikTok’s status in the U.S., as well as broader national security concerns such as money laundering networks. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed the meeting, scheduled for September 14–17, noting that both “U.S. unilateral tariff measures” and TikTok would be key topics on the agenda.
These discussions arrive after multiple delays on both tariff and TikTok deadlines, but analysts suggest that a resolution—or at least significant progress—may be imminent.
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