Market Snapshot for Thursday September 25th, 2025
S&P 500 – 6,604.72 (-0.50%)
Dow Jones – 45,974.32 (-0.38%)
NASDAQ – 22,384.70 (-0.50%)
Market Performance
S&P 500 Slides Again.
Major U.S. stock indexes fell for a third consecutive session Thursday as investors awaited Friday’s critical inflation report. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both slipped 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 0.4% lower, reflecting a cautious market mood ahead of key economic data.
Global equities experienced their steepest drop in over three weeks as stronger-than-expected U.S. growth figures raised questions about the pace of the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle. The dollar gained, posting its largest two-day advance in months, while U.S. Treasury yields climbed broadly.
Energy was the only S&P 500 sector to gain, rising 0.9%, as investors balanced gains in technology leaders like Intel and IBM against steep declines in CarMax, Oracle, and Freeport-McMoRan. Commodities showed mixed performance: oil stabilized after Wednesday’s spike, copper fell, and precious metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium rallied 3–4%.
While some analysts warn of a potential equity market top or tech bubble unwinding, others note that stretched valuations and AI-driven optimism may still provide support, creating a tug-of-war between risk and opportunity as the market navigates uncertainty.
Economic Takeaways –
- The 10-year yield rose another two basis points to 4.17%, extending a roughly 15-basis-point increase since the Fed’s September 17 meeting.
- The government’s final estimate of second-quarter GDP showed annualized growth of 3.8%, well above the 3.3% consensus forecast, fueled by stronger consumer spending (2.5% versus expectations of 1.7%). The first-quarter import surge—tied to companies stockpiling ahead of potential tariffs—also reversed last quarter.
- The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently projects a robust 3.3% annualized growth rate for the third quarter, with consumption still running strong at 2.7%.
- Labor-market data also surprised to the upside, with jobless claims falling to 218,000 last week versus forecasts of 233,000—suggesting the spike to 263,000 two weeks earlier was likely an outlier. Both economic and employment trends will remain closely watched ahead of the Fed’s October 30 FOMC meeting.
- New Commerce Department figures showed new home sales unexpectedly surged in August as mortgage rates eased, drawing some buyers back into the market and unlocking pent-up demand. Still, affordability remains a headwind.
- Sales of existing homes were nearly flat in August, the latest sign that high prices and limited mortgage rate relief are keeping prospective homebuyers sidelined for now. Sales dropped 0.2% last month compared to July, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 million, according to National Association of Realtors data released Thursday. Economists had been expecting a slightly bigger 1.5% decline.
Gold –
- Gold pared earlier gains on Thursday after U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly declined, while investors awaited key inflation data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate moves.
- Spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,739.42 per ounce, as of 01:41 p.m. EDT (1741 GMT) after rising as much as 0.6% earlier in the session. Prices hit a record high of $3,790.82 on Tuesday.
Oil –
- Oil prices steadied on Thursday after hitting a seven-week high in the previous session as Russia moved to restrict fuel exports until the end of the year, but the gains were limited by new U.S. economic data that tempered optimism around further interest rate cuts.
- Brent futures settled 11 cents, or 0.16%, higher at $69.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures lost 1 cent, or 0.02%, to $64.98.
Crypto –
- Bitcoin, after rebounding roughly 65% from its April lows, has largely plateaued near record highs of $124,000, reflecting renewed caution among crypto investors amid market volatility.
- More than $17 billion in Bitcoin options and $5.3 billion in Ether (/ETH) options are set to expire this week, according to Deribit. Ether fell 3.8% overnight, breaking below its 50-day moving average.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook Seeks Supreme Court Block on Trump Firing Attempt
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook asked the Supreme Court Thursday to block President Trump’s effort to remove her, warning it would threaten central bank independence and disrupt financial markets. Her lawyers argued that without limits, “any president could remove any governor based on any charge of wrongdoing, however flawed.”
The filing responds to the Justice Department’s request to lift a federal judge’s order blocking Cook’s firing over alleged mortgage fraud. Former Fed chairs, including Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, filed a supporting brief, saying such a removal would erode public confidence in the Fed.
Cook recently participated in the Fed’s policy meeting, voting to lower rates by 25 basis points.
Trump Signs TikTok Deal, But Key Details Remain Unclear
President Trump on Thursday signed an executive order approving the spin-off of TikTok’s U.S. operations from China-based ByteDance in a $14 billion deal. The move sets in motion a complex process, from securing China’s final approval to implementing a technical framework that ensures U.S. user data is protected—all while ideally keeping the platform experience seamless for users.
Several critical milestones remain: establishing the structure of the new American joint venture, overcoming significant technical challenges, and gaining support from a skeptical Congress. China’s final approval will also be essential, potentially tying TikTok’s fate to broader trade negotiations.
Oracle (ORCL) will lead security for the spun-off U.S. operations, but questions remain about what exactly the company will protect against and whether the U.S. can fully control TikTok’s algorithms and user data. Trump highlighted that other high-profile investors, including Larry Ellison, Michael Dell, and Rupert Murdoch, will play major roles in the new venture.
The new U.S.-controlled entity will be led by Oracle, alongside venture firm Andreessen Horowitz and private equity firm Silver Lake, with American investors holding the majority of ownership and board seats. Data privacy and cybersecurity experts stress that strong corporate governance will be key to ensuring the company can operate independently from ByteDance while meeting U.S. security standards.
Costco Beats Earnings Estimates as U.S. Sales Rise 6%
Costco (COST) reported fourth-quarter revenue of $86.16 billion and adjusted EPS of $5.87, slightly above Wall Street expectations. Same-store sales grew 6.4%, led by Canada’s 8.3% increase, while U.S. sales rose 6%.
For fiscal 2025, annual revenue reached $275.24 billion with EPS of $18.21, both exceeding forecasts. Despite the strong results, Costco stock slipped 0.5% in after-hours trading, continuing to lag the S&P 500 year-to-date.
Analysts highlight Costco’s value-focused strategy and supply chain strengths as advantages amid tariffs and competitive pressures, even as Amazon’s same-day delivery rollout adds new challenges.
Top Gainers
Several stocks experienced significant gains. Some of the top gainers included:
Centrus Energy (LEU) +13.11%
P3 Health Partners (PIII) +12.08%
Brookfield Business (BBU) +11.48%
UniQure N.V. (QURE) +10.84%
Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) +10.45%
Top Losers
The top US stock losers today, based on percentage change included:
CarMax, Inc. (KMX) -20.07%
Cipher Mining, Inc. (CIFR) -17.54%
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) -9.38%
Oklo, Inc. (OKLO) -9.18%
MARA Holdings (MARA) -8.90%
Notables
- CarMax (KMX) led the day’s decliners in the S&P 500, plunging 20% after reporting weaker-than-expected fiscal second-quarter sales and profits. CEO Bill Nash cited a pull-forward in demand from the previous quarter and depreciation in inventory built to support sales as headwinds affecting the results.
- Intel (INTC) extended its recent rally, surging 8.9% to top the S&P 500’s daily gainers. The semiconductor giant’s shares rose on reports of potential investment discussions with Apple (AAPL), a company that once relied heavily on Intel chips but has increasingly shifted toward in-house designs. Apple’s stock declined 1.8% on the day.
- Jabil (JBL), an electronic components supplier, posted revenue and earnings per share above expectations, yet shares fell 6.7%. CEO Mike Dastoor highlighted AI-driven demand in the company’s capital equipment, data center, and networking markets, while noting ongoing challenges in the automotive and renewable energy sectors.
- Oracle (ORCL) dropped 5.6% after Rothschild Redburn initiated coverage with a “sell” rating. The research firm suggested that the market may be overly optimistic on Oracle’s contracted cloud revenue, which has been a key driver of enthusiasm for the stock following its latest quarterly report.
- HSBC (HSBC) reported a successful trial using IBM (IBM) quantum computers to optimize bond trading, improving predictive accuracy by 34% over classical computing alone. IBM shares jumped 5.2%, while HSBC’s American depository receipts dipped slightly.
- Lithium Americas (LAC) added another 23% after surging nearly 100% Wednesday on reports the Trump administration is considering a government stake. The Canada-based miner holds a majority interest in Nevada’s Thacker Pass lithium project, poised to become one of North America’s largest lithium sources. Shares of Albemarle (ALB), the world’s largest lithium producer, climbed 4%.
What to Watch Ahead
August PCE prices, personal spending, and personal income, along with the University of Michigan’s final September consumer sentiment reading is expected tomorrow.
On September 29, investors will watch for expected earnings from Carnival (CCL).
September 30 brings the September Consumer Confidence report, August JOLTS job openings, and expected earnings from Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) and Nike (NKE).
October 1 will feature the ADP Employment Change report, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and expected earnings from Conagra (CAG), followed by August Factory Orders on October 2.
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