Evening Market Recap

Sophia Reyes · September 30, 2025 6:58 PM

Market Snapshot for Tuesday September 30^th, 2025

S&P 500 – 6,688.46 (+0.41%)

Dow Jones – 46,397.89 (+0.18%)

NASDAQ – 22,660.01 (+0.30%)

Market Performance

US equities edged up on Tuesday as investors grappled with the potential fallout from President Trump’s latest wave of tariffs and the looming possibility of the first federal government shutdown in seven years.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.2%, setting a fresh closing record, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added 0.3%, extending modest gains seen on Wall Street in recent sessions. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq capped their strongest third quarter since 2020 and recorded their best September performance since 2010.

Markets, however, are bracing for a shutdown after Trump and congressional Republicans failed to reach a deal with Democrats in Monday’s Oval Office meeting. “I think we’re headed to a shutdown,” Vice President JD Vance warned. Lawmakers have until 12:01 a.m. ET Wednesday to secure a last-minute agreement; odds of a shutdown currently hover near 93%, according to Polymarket.

A shutdown could stall key government economic reports, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which said it would “completely cease operations” if funding lapses. That could delay Friday’s highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report, along with other critical data that informs Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Tuesday’s JOLTS report on September job openings may be the last BLS labor market snapshot for a while. The report showed a larger-than-expected rise in job openings, alongside slower hiring and fewer layoffs—reflecting the “low-hire, low-fire” trend seen in recent months.

Consumer sentiment also weakened. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since April, weighed down by concerns over Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. Consumers in particular expressed a dim view of the job market.

Trump added to market jitters Monday with new tariffs on lumber, timber, and certain furniture imports, following earlier threats targeting foreign-made movies and last week’s plan to impose 100% duties on branded drugs. Analysts warn that his expanding trade offensive could further strain global growth, with new data showing China and Japan’s factories remain mired in a slowdown.

Economic Takeaways –

• The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that job openings in the U.S. edged up slightly in August, reflecting a labor market that is beginning to soften. Openings increased by 19,000, reaching 7.23 million, roughly in line with expectations of 7.2 million. Meanwhile, the number of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs, or quits, held steady at 3.1 million.
• The S&P 500 energy sector fell nearly 2% Monday amid speculation that OPEC+ could approve another production increase this week. Halliburton (HAL) slipped 1.6% this morning, while Exxon Mobil (XOM) declined nearly 1%. Separately, Bloomberg reported Exxon Mobil plans to cut around 2,000 jobs worldwide, or roughly 3%–4% of its workforce.
• September is set to close on a strong note for equities. The S&P 500 has gained more than 3% so far this month and 7.4% for the quarter, while the Nasdaq Composite is up 5.3% in September and nearly 11% for the quarter. According to Bloomberg, the S&P 500 is on track for its best September in 15 years, supported by optimism around AI and recent Fed rate cuts.
• Odds of a rate cut next month stand at 90%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, while markets place the probability of two cuts by year-end at 69%.
• US consumer confidence fell in September as Americans worried about inflation and became concerned about future job availability. The Conference Board’sConsumer Confidence Index declined by 3.6 points in September to 94.2 from 97.8 in August. The Present Situation Index, which tracks consumers’ views on current business and labor market conditions, dropped 7 points to 125.4.

Gold –

• On Tuesday, gold futures held near record highs above $3,875 an ounce, while silver futures traded just under $46. Silver was within striking distance of its closing high of $48.70 set in January 1980.
• Silver futures are up 27% over the past three months, versus gold’s more than 15% rise, and roughly 58% year to date compared with the yellow metal’s 45% gain.

Oil –

• Oil fell as OPEC+ considers accelerating supply increases despite forecasts of oversupply.
• West Texas Intermediate fell 1.7% to settle near $62 a barrel. The OPEC+ alliance meets on Sunday and is considering stepping up supply increases. The group will discuss potentially lifting output by 500,000 barrels a day per month over a three-month period, a delegate said.

Crypto –

• The crypto market edged lower on Tuesday, Sept. 30, giving back some of Monday’s gains as investors weighed macro headwinds, including the risk of a potential U.S. government shutdown.
• Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $113,101, down roughly 0.7% on the day. Ethereum (ETH) is hovering near $4,120, declining about 1.1% over the past 24 hours, according to data from The Defiant’s price page.

“I Think We’re Headed to a Shutdown”: What a Government Stoppage Could Mean

A Monday Oval Office meeting offered little progress toward averting a partial government shutdown, with both parties indicating Tuesday that no deal is imminent.

“We have very large differences,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said after leaving the meeting. Vice President JD Vance was more direct, stating, “I think we’re headed to a shutdown.” President Trump added Tuesday morning that Democrats would be to blame and suggested he may fire “a lot” of federal workers if a stoppage occurs.

Without a last-minute deal, a shutdown—the first since 2019—is set to begin Wednesday at 12:01 a.m. ET. The impasse could have unpredictable economic consequences, some immediate and others compounding over time.

Markets are already reacting, particularly in currencies and gold, but attention is focused on the halt of government economic data. Such reports, critical to both investors and the Federal Reserve, provide insight into a slowing labor market and persistent inflation ahead of the Fed’s October policy meeting.

Michael Linden of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth noted, “The U.S. economy is already on a knife’s edge—the labor market has softened and inflation has risen. Adding a government shutdown to the mix certainly won’t help.”

The Trump administration has also raised the possibility of mass firings if a shutdown occurs, though details remain vague. The country could again face familiar effects from previous shutdowns, including unpaid TSA workers and closed national parks.

Deliberations continue, with last-minute Senate votes scheduled for Tuesday afternoon, though expectations remain low that any breakthrough will emerge.

Top Gainers

Several stocks experienced significant gains. Some of the top gainers included:

Wolfspeed, Inc. +29.41%

Vor Biopharma, Inc. (VOR) +22.14%

United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) +18.45%

Semtech Corp. (SMTC) +15.28%

Bloom Energy Corp. (BE) +14.90%

Top Losers

The top US stock losers today, based on percentage change included:

Jyong Biotech Ltd. (MENS) -21.24%

Firefly Aerospace (FLY) -20.67%

DocuSign, Inc. (DOCU) -12.24%

Klaviyo, Inc. (KVYO) -12.07%
Braze, Inc. (BRZE) -11.73%

Notables

• Nike (NKE) reported its fiscal first quarter results on Tuesday after market close that beat expectations. The company reported adjusted earnings per share that came in at $0.49 compared to Wall Street analyst estimates for $0.28, according to data from Bloomberg.
• Major technology stocks advanced Monday as concerns over AI that weighed on the sector last week eased, at least temporarily. AppLovin (APP), CoreWeave (CRWV), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), ASML (ASML), and Nvidia (NVDA) all gained ground. Electronic Arts (EA) rose more than 4% after news it is being taken private, adding further support to tech’s rally.
• CoreWeave jumped after announcing a deal to provide Meta Platforms (META) with up to $14 billion in computing power, Bloomberg reported.
• Spotify (SPOT) slid following the announcement that CEO Daniel Ek will step down. The stock also faced a downgrade from Goldman Sachs to Neutral from Buy, with analysts noting that current levels already reflect much of Spotify’s future growth.
• Celsius Holdings (CELH) gained after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight, citing expectations for stronger-than-anticipated top-line growth.
• Wolfspeed (WOLF) surged after the company said it had successfully exited Chapter 11 bankruptcy, according to Barron’s. Management emphasized it now has “ample liquidity” to continue meeting customer demand.
• Vail Resorts (MTN) fell after reporting a larger-than-expected quarterly adjusted loss and a 3% decline in pass product sales on a unit basis, Barron’s noted.
• EchoStar (SATS) rallied after Bloomberg reported Verizon (VZ) is in discussions to acquire portions of its wireless spectrum.
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) advanced after Bank of America upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral, pointing to greater confidence that current valuations account for risks tied to the temporary suspension of its Grasberg copper and gold mine in Indonesia.
• Robinhood (HOOD) soared as CEO Vlad Tenev revealed on X that Robinhood’s prediction markets surpassed 4 billion event contracts traded.
• Spotify (SPOT) CEO Daniel Ek will hand over the CEO role to two executives on Jan. 1, the music streaming company announced Tuesday.

What to Watch Ahead

Wednesday (Oct. 01): ADP Employment Change, Construction Spending, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Manufacturing Index, MBA Mortgage Applications Index. Earnings from Acuity Inc. (AYI), Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (CALM), Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG), Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI), RPM International Inc. (RPM).

Thursday (Oct. 02): Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Factory Orders, Initial Claims. Earnings from AngioDynamics Inc. (ANGO), Trilogy Metals (TMQ).

Friday (Oct. 03): Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Workweek, Average Hourly Earnings, Ism Services, Unemployment Rate.