Evening Market Recap

Sophia Reyes · October 1, 2025 6:38 PM

Market Snapshot for Wednesday October 1^st, 2025

S&P 500 – 6,711.20 (+0.34%)

Dow Jones – 46,441.10 (+0.09%)

NASDAQ – 22,755.16 (+0.42%)

Market Performance

US Stocks Hit Records as Shutdown Begins, Weak Jobs Data Fuels Rate-Cut Bets

US equities climbed to new highs Wednesday, even as the federal government entered its first shutdown in seven years. Investors looked past the immediate economic risks and instead seized on weak labor data that reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.3%, closing above 6,700 for the first time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) edged up 0.1% to secure a second straight record, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 0.4%, reversing earlier losses. The rebound followed a sluggish morning and came on the heels of Wall Street’s strongest third quarter since 2020.

Markets appeared largely unfazed by the shutdown’s near-term impact, though economists warn that a prolonged stoppage could weigh on growth by disrupting government services and private businesses tied to federal operations.

The political standoff comes as the labor market shows fresh cracks. ADP’s employment report revealed a surprise decline of 32,000 private-sector jobs last month, far below forecasts for a 50,000 gain. The miss bolstered bets that the Fed will move quickly to ease policy: futures now price in a 99% chance of a rate cut this month and an 87% chance of another in December.

In Washington, agencies have begun rolling out contingency plans, sending hundreds of thousands of workers home. President Trump has warned of mass firings ahead, while the shutdown halts the work of key agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics, whose data underpins Fed decisions.

Economic Takeaways –

• Private ADP jobs data released this morning showed a further weakening of the labor market, all but cementing investor bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its next policy meeting later this month. ADP private sector employment fell by 32,000 in September, well below consensus of 40,000 jobs added and likely to spur fresh concern about the labor picture. ADP also sliced its August report to down 3,000 from up 54,000.
• Government jobs could be in jeopardy as President Trump threatens firings.
• The CME FedWatch Tool still prices in nearly 95% chances of a rate cut later this month.
• U.S. mortgage demand dropped 12.7% last week, according to the MBA Mortgage Applications Index.
• September ended with major indexes up for the month, bucking the historic trend of weak Septembers. The S&P 500 index rose 3.53% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 5.6%. The Russell 2000^®(RUT) climbed nearly 3%. It was the best September since 2010.

Gold –

• Gold futures climbed to record highs on Wednesday as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid a government shutdown.
• Futures for the precious metal surged past $3,900 per troy ounce before paring gains.

Oil –

• Oil dipped after another choppy trading session as investors weighed the prospect that OPEC+ may fast-track output hikes even as US crude stockpiles swell.
• West Texas Intermediate fell by almost 1% to settle near $62 a barrel, marking its third straight daily decline.

Crypto –

• Bitcoin (BTC) climbed over 3% on Wednesday and briefly topped $118,000 in afternoon trading as investors saw the crypto as benefiting from seasonal tailwinds and the uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown.

Weak ADP Data Locks in October Rate Cut Bets.

Investor expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in October surged to 100% on Wednesday, up from 96% the prior session, CME Group data showed. The shift followed a surprise downturn in the labor market, as ADP reported that US private employers cut 32,000 jobs in September. Economists had forecast a gain of 51,000, underscoring weakness that bolstered calls for near-term policy easing.

Treasury Yields Dip as Shutdown Begins.

US Treasury yields fell Wednesday as investors sought safety in government bonds during the nation’s first shutdown in seven years. The 10-year yield (^TNX) slipped nearly four basis points to 4.11%, while the 30-year (^TYX) dipped three basis points to 4.7%, before both retraced slightly. The shutdown has also clouded the Fed’s policy outlook, delaying Friday’s key employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Meta Drops as Tech Giants Trade Mixed.

Meta Platforms (META) shares fell nearly 3% Wednesday, extending a recent slide that has pushed the stock down more than 9% since its $790 August peak. The drop followed news that Meta signed a $14 billion deal with CoreWeave (CRVW) to rent access to Nvidia’s new Blackwell AI chips, raising analyst questions about its data center strategy. Meta also announced plans to acquire Rivos, a chip startup led by former Google and Intel executives, a move seen as bolstering its in-house semiconductor push.

Top Gainers

Several stocks experienced significant gains. Some of the top gainers included:

Fluence Energy, Inc. (FLNC) +24.54%

Jyong Biotech Ltd. (MENS) +21.53%

QuantumScape (QS) +18.43%

The AES Corp. (AES) +16.79%

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) +16.01%

Top Losers

The top US stock losers today, based on percentage change included:

Vor Biopharma Inc. (VOR) -19.42%

Wix.com Ltd. (WIX) -13.42%

Wolfspeed, Inc. (WOLF) -13.18%

Reddit,Inc. (RDDT) -11.91%

Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO) -11.07%

Notables

• Peloton Interactive Inc. shares fell Wednesday after the company raised prices on both hardware and membership fees in a sweeping product overhaul.
• Apple (AAPL) has halted a planned overhaul of its Vision Pro headset to divert resources toward developing smart glasses that can rival products from Meta Platforms, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people with knowledge of the matter.
• Fermi Inc. shares rose 55% in their debut after the energy real estate investment trust raised $682.5 million in its US listing, the latest sign of investors’ hunger for exposure to a boom in artificial intelligence.
• Intel (INTC) is in early talks to add AMD as a foundry customer, Semafor reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
• Yahoo is in advanced talks to sell AOL to Italian technology company Bending Spoons for about $1.4 billion, four sources familiar with the matter said.
• Nike (NKE) topped Wall Street expectations on both earnings and revenue after reporting late Tuesday, sending shares nearly 5% higher in early trading. Investors welcomed signs that the company’s turnaround strategy is gaining traction. Still, Nike stock remains down 8% year-to-date, with constant-currency sales slipping 1% from last year. For the current quarter, the company guided to a low single-digit sales decline, in line with forecasts.
• Nucor (NUE) slipped following reports that the European Union may impose tariffs of up to 50% on imported steel.
• Occidental Petroleum (OXY) edged higher after The Wall Street Journal said Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) is in talks to acquire its petrochemical unit for about $10 billion.
• Ford’s (F) US sales surged in the third quarter, led by its trucks and electrified vehicles. Ford said it was the seventh consecutive month of sales gains for the automaker.
• Conagra (CAG) rose as quarterly results came in stronger than expected. Revenue fell 6% year over year but still beat estimates, and the company reaffirmed its guidance.
• CoreWeave (CRWV) jumped after Bloomberg reported the company struck a deal to provide Meta Platforms (META) with up to $14 billion in computing power.
• Pharma stocks surged, with Pfizer (PFE), Merck (MRK), and Eli Lilly (LLY) rallied after the Trump administration unveiled plans for a program to sell drugs directly to consumers.
• Sunrun (RUN) climbed after Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy, citing strong growth potential into 2026.
• Peloton (PLTN) rose ahead of the launch of five new AI-focused products, according to CNN.
• AES (AES) skyrocketed after the Financial Times reported BlackRock-owned Global Infrastructure Partners is nearing a $38 billion deal to acquire the utility.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) slid after TD Cowen downgraded shares to Hold from Buy, pointing to competitive pressures in electro-optics.
• Delta Air Lines (DAL) gained following an upgrade from Jefferies to Buy ahead of next week’s earnings, with analysts expecting margin expansion.

What to Watch Ahead

Tomorrow investors can look forward to earnings from AngioDynamics Inc. (ANGO) and Trilogy Metals (TMQ).