Evening Market Recap

Sophia Reyes · October 2, 2025 7:48 PM

Market Snapshot for Thursday October 2^nd, 2025

S&P 500 – 6,715.35 (+0.06%)

Dow Jones – 46,519.72 (+0.17%)

NASDAQ – 22,844.05 (+0.39%)

Market Performance

AI Frenzy Powers Wall Street to Fresh Records.

US stocks pushed higher on Thursday, with the AI trade once again driving Wall Street to fresh record highs amid renewed excitement around OpenAI (OPAI.PVT). At the same time, investors monitored the political standoff in Washington, weighing the potential length of a government shutdown.

The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 0.4%, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) edged up 0.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added 0.2% — with all three benchmarks closing at new all-time records.

The rally followed the S&P 500’s historic climb above 6,700 on Wednesday. Strength in the AI sector continued to lift chipmakers worldwide, as Nvidia (NVDA) surged to another record high and AMD (AMD) and SK Hynix (000660.KS, HXSCL) also advanced.

The ongoing US government shutdown has yet to significantly unsettle traders. President Trump escalated rhetoric against Democrats, vowing to slash federal agencies and funding for blue states, while meeting with OMB Director Russ Vought to map strategy. A delayed September jobs report now looms as the Federal Reserve considers labor market weakness ahead of its October policy meeting.

Economic Takeaways –

• Private hiring data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed plans at their lowest since 2009, underscoring a “low hire, low fire” trend highlighted by this week’s ADP figures. Markets continue to overwhelmingly bet on a Fed rate cut.
• Key labor-market releases are being pushed back due to the funding lapse. Weekly jobless claims, expected today at 223,000 versus 218,000 previously, will not be published. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also confirmed the September jobs report will not be released on Friday. Economists had been looking for payroll growth of 50,000 last month, up from 22,000 in August, with unemployment steady at 4.3% and annual wage growth at 3.7%.
• The shutdown began October 1 after Congress failed to reach a funding deal before the September 30 deadline. The House passed a short-term measure, but the Senate has resisted, with Democrats seeking to roll back health-care cuts included in this summer’s tax package. Nonessential federal services have now begun closing, with workers furloughed until funding is restored. The sectors most affected by the staff reduction are government—as almost 290,000 Federal workers were impacted by DOGE cuts—technology and retail. On Wednesday, ADP reported a 32,000-decrease in private-sector payrolls in September following a revised decline of 3,000 the previous month.
• Large financials ended mostly lower as falling long-term yields squeezed margins, weighing on bank profitability.
• The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets still pricing in nearly 100% odds of a rate cut this month, with an 86% chance of two cuts by year-end.
• The average rate on a 30-year mortgage in the U.S. has inched up for a second straight week to 6.34%.
• Hiring plans among U.S. employers for the year through September fell to their lowest level since 2009, highlighting the labor market’s continued stagnation. The decline was driven largely by a sharp pullback in seasonal hiring announcements, according to a Thursday report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Gold –

• Gold took a breather on Thursday after a monstrous rally this year.
• Aakash Doshi, head of gold strategy at State Street Investment Management, told Yahoo Finance that he expects the precious metal to reach $4,000 per ounce in the fourth quarter. “Earlier this week, we already highlighted that $4,000 an ounce is not only a question of if but when, and we do think that that’s plausible this month or certainly in the fourth quarter, assigning a 75% probability of breaking above $4,000 an ounce,” Doshi said.

Oil –

• Oil prices fell again on Thursday, marking a fourth straight day of declines amid worries of oversupply.
• West Texas Intermediate futures fell roughly 2% to hover near $60 per barrel. Brent crude also fell to hover near $64 per barrel.
• The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are considering a plan to increase output by as much as 500,000 barrels per day in November, which would be three times the agreed-upon increase for October, as Saudi Arabia aims to reclaim market share.

Crypto –

• Visa is launching a stablecoin prefunding pilot for accounts-based transfers through Visa Direct.
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) climbed past $120,000, extending momentum in the crypto market.

OpenAI Surges to $500 Billion Valuation, Overtaking SpaceX and ByteDance

OpenAI may now rank as the world’s most valuable startup, surpassing Elon Musk’s SpaceX and TikTok parent ByteDance, following a secondary stock sale aimed at retaining talent at the ChatGPT maker.

In the deal, current and former OpenAI employees sold $6.6 billion worth of shares to investors, boosting the private AI firm’s valuation to $500 billion, according to a source familiar with the transaction.

The buyer group included Thrive Capital, Dragoneer Investment Group, T. Rowe Price, Japan’s SoftBank, and the UAE’s MGX, the source said Thursday.

The towering valuation underscores investor optimism for artificial intelligence and marks another milestone in OpenAI’s journey since its 2015 launch as a nonprofit research lab.

Still, the San Francisco company has yet to achieve profitability, raising fears of an AI bubble if OpenAI and its rivals fail to deliver on lofty expectations despite billions in ongoing R&D investments.

CEO Sam Altman has pushed back on those concerns, highlighting the long-term nature of AI development. On a recent tour of a massive data center project in Abilene, Texas, he noted:
“Between the ten years we’ve already been operating and the many decades ahead, there will be booms and busts. People will overinvest and lose money, and underinvest and lose a lot of revenue.”

Several stocks experienced significant gains. Some of the top gainers included:

Ondas Holdings (ONDS) +25.99%

USA Rare Earth (USAR) +23.36%

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) +18.59%

Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) +17.98%

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) +16.19%

The top US stock losers today, based on percentage change included:

TransUnion (TRU) -10.64%

Equifax, Inc. (EFX) -8.47%

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) -7.39%

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) -7.31%

The GEO Group (GEO) -7.08%

Notables

• Tesla (TSLA) slipped despite record quarterly sales, as investors focused on challenges ahead without the federal EV tax credit.
• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) unveiled its largest acquisition since 2022, agreeing to purchase Occidental Petroleum’s (OXY) petrochemical unit, OxyChem, for $9.7 billion. BRK is fractionally lower in pre-market trading, while OXY is up 1.3%.
• Fair Isaac (FICO) launched a system that gives mortgage lenders direct access to FICO scores. Rivals TransUnion (TRU) and Equifax (EFX) are each down about 8% in response.
• Intel (INTC) climbed after reports it is in early talks to bring Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) on as a foundry customer—a potential boost to its U.S. chip-manufacturing strategy. Shares are pulling back slightly ahead of the open.
• Pfizer (PFE), Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK), Biogen (BIIB), Amgen (AMGN), and Regeneron (REGN) all posted strong gains yesterday. While early, the move may point to a rotation into health care as investors seek value and dividends amid falling Treasury yields. Lower rates could also ease R&D costs and spur M&A activity across biotech.
• Fermi (FRMI) stock swung back and forth on Thursday after rising over 54% in its first day of trading on Wednesday.

What to Watch Ahead

October 6: Expected earnings from Constellation Brands (STZ).
October 7: Expected earnings from McCormick (MKC).
October 8: FOMC meeting minutes.
October 9: Expected earnings from Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and Levi Strauss (LEVI).