Evening Market Recap

Sophia Reyes · October 3, 2025 4:33 PM

Evening Market Recap

Market Snapshot for Friday October 3^rd, 2025

S&P 500 – 6,715.79 (+0.01%)

Dow Jones – 46,758.28 (+0.51%)

NASDAQ – 22,780.51 (-0.28%)

Market Performance

Wall Street Rides AI Frenzy to Record Highs Despite Government Shutdown and Missing Jobs Report

U.S. stocks closed out a winning week on Friday as investors zeroed in on the promise of artificial intelligence, shrugging off the ongoing government shutdown that delayed the release of the monthly jobs report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) briefly touched 47,000 before trimming gains, ultimately closing up 0.5% at a fresh all-time high. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) eked out a modest rise to post another record, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gave back early gains to finish down 0.3%, dragged lower by a drop in Tesla (TSLA) shares. For the week, all three major indexes posted gains exceeding 1%.

Despite the shutdown, Wall Street has largely maintained its optimism. The absence of the monthly jobs report left both investors and the Federal Reserve in the dark, but private data this week confirmed a sharp slowdown in the labor market. Yet, concerns about the U.S. economy’s near-term trajectory have not deterred equities, which continue to reach new milestones, fueled by persistent AI enthusiasm. OpenAI’s valuation surged to $500 billion, cementing its place as the world’s most valuable startup.

Friday’s session featured fresh AI-driven deal announcements that fueled optimism. Hitachi Ltd. (6501.T) partnered with OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) on energy projects, while Fujitsu (6501.T) expanded its collaboration with Nvidia (NVDA). Other sectors also impressed, with pharmaceutical stocks on track for their strongest week in over a decade.

The political backdrop remains unresolved. Democrats insist on maintaining healthcare subsidies as a prerequisite for funding the government, while Republicans refuse to negotiate until the shutdown ends. Meanwhile, President Trump has escalated threats to fire federal employees and defund projects in Democratic-leaning states.

In other market news, Netflix (NFLX) stock appeared on track for its steepest weekly decline since April, down roughly 5%, as Elon Musk urged users to cancel subscriptions. The stock lagged both the broader market and major tech peers like Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META).

Amid the fervor, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos added a note of caution, calling the AI boom “a bubble” while acknowledging the technology’s profound potential. Speaking at Italian Tech Week, Bezos said investors are currently funding every AI experiment—good or bad—making it difficult to separate the truly transformative ideas from the hype.

Even as Wall Street looks past the shutdown and missing data, AI-driven excitement and corporate developments continue to propel equities to record territory, underscoring both the opportunities and risks shaping today’s market.

Economic Takeaways –

• Industrials (XLI) and Utilities (XLU) hit all-time highs on Friday as the AI trade continued to expand beyond tech.
• The 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.09%, and the 30-year bond held pat at 4.6%.
• The September jobs report is delayed. Economists polled by FactSet expected the US to have added around 50,000 jobsduring the month and for the unemployment rate to have held steady at 4.3%.
• The Russell 2000 joined its large-cap counterparts, rising 1.5%. The gain put the benchmark up nearly 12% for the year.
• The ISM services index for September eased but held at 50, still signaling expansion. Notably, the employment component slipped further into contraction at 47.2, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market.
• Futures markets now show a roughly 97% chance of another Fed rate cut in October, according to CME FedWatch, helping bolster investor sentiment.

Gold –

• Gold continued to climb to record highs at $3,906.10 an ounce.

Oil –

• Chevron (CVX) stock was largely unchanged on Friday after a fire broke out at the company’s El Segundo refinery in Los Angeles County.
• West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 0.6% to $60 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 0.5% to $64 a barrel as traders braced for OPEC+ to push through more supply hikes.
• Oil prices have fallen roughly 7% this week and are on track for the largest weekly loss since June.

Crypto –

• Bitcoin neared new highs on Friday to hover just below $123,000 per token.
• The gains came as uncertainty from a US government shutdown rippled through markets, while seasonal tailwinds added momentum to the crypto rally.
• Ether also jumped above $4,500 per token, lifted by broader risk-on sentiment.

No Jobs Report Leaves Fed Flying Blind, But Markets Still Price in Rate Cuts

Federal Reserve officials are navigating uncharted territory as the ongoing government shutdown prevented Friday’s release of the crucial monthly jobs report—the data often considered essential for guiding decisions on the future of monetary policy.

Despite the missing information, markets remain confident that the Fed will continue its planned path of easing, pricing in nearly a 97% probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the next Fed meeting, scheduled for October 28–29, bringing rates to 3.75%–4%. Traders are also anticipating another quarter-point cut at the final 2025 meeting on December 9–10.

In the absence of official government statistics, policymakers will lean on private sector data, anecdotal evidence, and surveys conducted by regional Fed offices. Early indications from these sources already point to a slowing labor market, reinforcing expectations for further cuts.

For instance, payroll services provider ADP reported that private sector employment fell by 32,000 in September, signaling contraction. Meanwhile, the Indeed Job Postings Index, which tracks real-time hiring demand, showed a continued cooling trend across most industries. Overall job postings were up 2.9% from pre-pandemic levels but declined 2.5% from the previous month. Banking and finance were the only sectors to see year-over-year growth in listings among the 45 professional categories tracked.

The Indeed Wage Tracker, which monitors advertised salaries, revealed that annual wage growth has been slowing steadily throughout the year and is now lagging behind the pace of inflation, underscoring the broader softening in the labor market.

“Right now, we’re dealing with a stagnating labor market, rising costs, and transformative new technology,” said Andy Challenger, senior vice president and labor expert at outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, highlighting the complex backdrop facing the Fed as it considers its next moves.

Goldman CEO Solomon Sees US Economy and Dealmaking Gaining Momentum Into 2026

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) CEO David Solomon expects the U.S. economy to pick up steam heading into 2026, fueled by continued stimulus and robust tech spending, even as a softer labor market and ongoing geopolitical tensions weigh on growth.

Speaking at Italian Tech Week in Turin, Solomon noted that government spending and the massive buildout of AI infrastructure mean the economy remains “still in pretty good shape,” despite the headwinds from tariffs and a slower job market. He previously flagged concerns about economic softening on September 10, pointing to President Donald Trump’s trade policies as a contributing factor.

Solomon also sees U.S. dealmaking set to accelerate, driven in part by a “changed regulatory environment” that is encouraging CEOs to pursue more ambitious mergers and acquisitions.

While the Goldman chief anticipates a potential “drawdown” in equity markets over the next 12 to 24 months—particularly after the long runup in AI-driven tech stocks—he downplayed concerns. “I’m not going to bed every night worrying about what’s happening next,” he said, reflecting confidence in the resilience of the broader market.

Several stocks experienced significant gains. Some of the top gainers included:

Mercurity Fintech (MFH) +36.09%

Lithium Americas (LAC) +31.78%

Quantum Computing (QUBT) +23.22%

Rumble, Inc. (RUM) +15.83%

USA Rare Earth (USAR) +14.31%

The top US stock losers today, based on percentage change included:

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) -9.21%

Roblox Corp. (RBLX) -8.10%

Jyong Biotech Ltd. (MENS) -7.69%

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) -7.47%

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) -7.41%

Notables

• Monopoly’s impending comeback will boost the fortunes of McDonald’s (MCD), according to Jefferies. “The MONOPOLY game will return to the U.S. for the first time in nearly a decade … which we think will be received positively,” Jefferies analyst Andy Barish wrote in a note to clients.
• DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria reiterated a buy rating on Amazon (AMZN), citing an increasingly upbeat outlook for Amazon AWS cloud sales. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan also has a buy rating on Amazon today, as he is also bullish on cloud sales.
• Applied Materials (AMAT) shares fell after the semiconductor giant warned of a $600 million hit to fiscal 2026 revenue. The setback comes as the U.S. expanded its list of restricted exports, impacting industries including semiconductors, aircraft, and medical equipment.
• Tesla (TSLA) stock climbed following a blockbuster report on third-quarter global deliveries. Analysts noted that the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit in the U.S. likely boosted sales heading into the quarter.
• Hitachi (6501.T) soared as much as 9%, marking its biggest jump since April 10, after announcing a strategic partnership with OpenAI (OPAI.PVT). The deal is part of a growing trend of collaborations between Japanese technology companies and U.S.-based AI leaders, underscoring the expanding global footprint of artificial intelligence.
• Quantum computing stocks surged this week, with Rigetti Computing and Quantum Computing each climbing more than 27%, D-Wave Quantum up 23%, and Arqit Quantum rallying nearly 37%. IonQ also added about 9%, extending gains after a strong run the prior week.
• Boeing (BA) is facing a potential delay in the launch of its 777X aircraft, with sources indicating commercial service may not begin until 2027, a year later than previously projected. The company declined comment, citing a quiet period ahead of earnings. Shares rose 1% Thursday but dipped early Friday. Fair Isaac (FICO) rallied nearly 18% on Thursday, topping the S&P 500, after announcing a direct-licensing program, and extended its gains into Friday morning.
• Rivian (RIVN) tumbled yesterday despite reporting a 32% jump in third-quarter deliveries that beat analyst expectations. The selloff was driven by weak forward guidance, though shares edged slightly higher this morning.
• Rumble (RUM) climbed after unveiling a partnership with Perplexity, an AI-powered answer engine.
• USA Rare Earth (USAR) surged on reports from CNBC that the company is in close talks with the White House.
• GameStop dropped following a filing in which the company announced it is selling a mix of assets, including common stock and debt, for an undisclosed amount.
• Wells Fargo upgraded Johnson & Johnson to a buy, citing expectations for robust medicine sales over the next two years and the company’s plans to expand its U.S. drug manufacturing operations.

What to Watch Ahead

Investors face a busy week with a slate of important earnings reports and economic updates. The week kicks off on October 6 with Constellation Brands (STZ) set to release its results, followed by McCormick (MKC) on October 7.

Attention will also turn to the Federal Reserve, as the FOMC meeting minutes are scheduled for release on October 8, offering potential insights into the central bank’s next moves on monetary policy. October 9 promises a flurry of corporate updates, including earnings from Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and Levi Strauss (LEVI).

The week wraps up on October 10 with the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October, providing an early glimpse into consumer confidence heading into the final quarter of the year.

October 6: Expected earnings from Constellation Brands (STZ).
October 7: Expected earnings from McCormick (MKC).
October 8: FOMC meeting minutes.
October 9: Expected earnings from Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and Levi Strauss (LEVI).