Evening Recap

Sophia Reyes · July 10, 2025 5:58 PM

Market Snapshot for Thursday 7-10-2025

Dow Jones – 44,650.64 (+0.43%)
NASDAQ – 20,630.66 (+0.09%)
S&P 500 – 6,280.46 (+0.27%)

Market Performance

U.S. stocks climbed to new record highs on Thursday, buoyed by a modest gain in Nvidia (NVDA) after a landmark achievement and a sharp rally in bitcoin, even as fresh tariff threats from President Trump loomed over markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced roughly 0.6%, extending the winning streak for major indexes. The S&P 500 gained about 0.4% to finish at a record 6,280.46, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2%, securing its second consecutive all-time high.

Market focus remains on potential trade pacts with bigger US trading partners, such as the EU, India, and Canada.

Economic Takeaways –

• For the first time in six weeks, mortgage rates are trending up. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.72% through Wednesday, up from 6.67% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac data. The average 15-year mortgage rate was 5.82%, up from 5.80% last week.
• The U.S. dollar index drifted 0.2% higher.
• The June Job Report showed that the labor market remains strong, and unemployment is ticking down slightly. Initial jobless claims of 227,000 today were 8,000 below the Bloomberg consensus and likely another strike against a July rate cut.
• President Trump is threatening a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil unless legal action against former President Bolsonaro is stopped.
• The Brazilian real sank by as much as 2.4% against the US dollar following the escalating tensions.
• Arabica coffee prices trading in New York climbed more than 3.5 per cent on Thursday morning in response to Trump’s threat.
• New unemployment insurance claims dropped again last week, staying near historically low levels as companies remain hesitant to cut staff. Continuing claims—those receiving ongoing benefits—rose to nearly 2 million, the highest since late 2021.
• Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting reveals most members prefer to wait and assess how trade tensions and their effects on the economy unfold before adjusting policy.

Gold –

• Gold prices were little changed on Thursday as a stronger U.S. dollar offset the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs in driving buying by investors seeking shelter from geopolitical risk.
• Spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,317.44 per ounce by 0150 pm ET (1750 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% higher at $3,325.7.
• A Malian military helicopter transported gold from Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto complex on Thursday, according to three sources. The move comes just days after Reuters reported that a court-appointed administrator intended to sell the mine’s bullion to fund ongoing operations.

Oil –

• OPEC cut its global oil demand forecasts for the next four years on Thursday as Chinese growth slows.
• West Texas Intermediate futures fell to settle below $67 a barrel after Bloomberg reported that the cartel is discussing a pause in further production increases from October.

Crypto –

• Bitcoin hit a fresh new record above $113,000.

• Circle stock (CRCL) climbed following reports that Jack Ma-backed Ant Group Co. is exploring the adoption of Circle’s stablecoin on its blockchain platform.
• Coinbase (COIN) was downgraded to Sell by H.C. Wainwright, citing stretched valuation.

Bitcoin Breaks Above $113,000 as Risk Appetite Surges Ahead of Crypto Week

Bitcoin soared to a fresh all-time high on Thursday, crossing the $113,000 mark as investor sentiment turned decisively risk-on across markets.

The rally coincided with Nvidia’s (NVDA) climb to a historic $4 trillion valuation, underscoring Bitcoin’s continued correlation with the broader tech sector. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) notched another record on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was on track to follow suit Thursday.

“Historically, Bitcoin has remained highly correlated with tech stocks, and this correlation is still playing out,” noted Nic Puckrin, founder of the Coin Bureau.

So far in 2025, Bitcoin has surged roughly 21%, fueled in part by supportive signals from the Trump administration, including the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and broader federal efforts to bolster digital asset infrastructure.

MP Materials Skyrockets 45% After $400 Million Pentagon Deal Makes U.S. Government Top Shareholder

Shares of MP Materials (MP) surged around 45% in mid-afternoon trading Thursday after the U.S. Department of Defense announced a $400 million investment in the rare earths miner, making the government its largest shareholder.

The Pentagon emphasized the strategic importance of rare earth elements — essential for everything from electric vehicles to cutting-edge military technology — noting they are “needed to manufacture the permanent magnets used in important US military weapons systems.”

The move underscores growing alarm over supply chain risks, particularly as U.S.-China tensions remain elevated. Rare earths have become a flashpoint in ongoing trade negotiations between the two global powers.

In 2023, China supplied roughly 70% of all rare earth imports to the U.S., according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Trump administration officials have touted the investment as a critical step toward reducing reliance on China and reinforcing national security.

Jobless Claims Drop Unexpectedly, But Underlying Data Sends Mixed Signals

New government figures revealed an unexpected drop in weekly jobless claims for the week ending July 5, but a closer look paints a more nuanced picture of the labor market.

Initial claims fell to 227,000, down 5,000 from the prior week’s revised total and below the 235,000 economists had forecast, according to Reuters. However, continuing claims — which reflect those still receiving unemployment benefits and trail initial claims by a week — edged higher to 1.97 million, suggesting ongoing strain in parts of the job market.

Top Gainers

Several stocks experienced significant gains. Some of the top gainers included:

• MP Materials Corp. (MP) moved higher 50.62%
• Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NEGG) soared by 32.27%
• ProKidney Corp. (PROK) exploded 19.35%
• United Airlines Holding (UAL) surged 14.33%
• American Airlines Group (AAL) rose 12.72%
• Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) moved up 11.99%
• Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ) rose 11.78%
• Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP) spiked 10.43%
• Cleveland-Cliffs, Inc. (CLF) moved up 10.40%
• TMC the metals company (TMC) surged 10.09%

Top Losers

The top US stock losers today, based on percentage change included:

• Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) moved lower 31.04%
• Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) moved down 25.11%
• Bloom Energy Corp. (BE) sank 9.96%
• Atlassian Corp. (TEAM) fell 9.43%
• Soleno Therapeutics, Inc. (SLNO) was down 9.23%
• Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) sank 9.04%
• PTC, Inc. (PTC) 7.55%
• CyberArk Software Ltd. (CYBR) down 7.14%
• Fidelity National Financial (FNF) slumped 7.08%
• Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) dragged 6.92%

Notables

• Delta (DAL) kicked off the second quarter earnings season with its report. Shares of the airline jumped 12% as the carrier restored its earnings outlook, citing “greater clarity” as trade deals get done.
• Ferrero announced Thursday it will buy cereal maker WK Kellogg (KLG) for a price tag of $3.1 billion, or $23 per share.
• Shares of Ramaco Resources (METC) jumped more than 27% in early trading Thursday after Fluor Corporation (FLR) confirmed the presence of significant rare earth element deposits at Ramaco’s Brook Mine in Wyoming.
• S.-listed shares of Brazilian companies declined in premarket trading Thursday after President Trump warned he’s ready to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports beginning August 1.
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSM) revenue rose 39% last quarter, boosting expectations that AI spending remains robust.
• Oracle (ORCL) gained following an upgrade to Overweight from Piper Sandler, which pointed to strong AI infrastructure spending as a growth driver.
• McDonald’s (MCD) rose after Goldman Sachs upgraded it to Buy, highlighting the company’s marketing prowess in driving traffic and sales growth.
• Roku (ROKU) advanced after KeyBanc upgraded its rating to Overweight, citing innovation in advertising and shifts in budget allocations.
• Homebuilder stocks including KB Home (KBH), Lennar (LEN), PulteGroup (PHM), and Toll Brothers (TOL) mostly rose on Thursday, supported by a surge in mortgage applications and a drop in 10-year Treasury yields following Wednesday’s bond auction.
• Conagra (CAG) shares fell after the company reported earnings and revenue below analyst expectations, blaming rising inflation, currency headwinds, and supply chain disruptions.
• After a steep 18% drop on Tuesday due to a reduced profit outlook, WPP PLC (WPP) rebounded on Thursday, though the ad sector remains jittery amid growing concerns that AI is accelerating the shift away from traditional agencies to digital platforms, according to Barron’s.
• PTC (PTC) surged as much as 19% in early trading on Thursday before pulling back, fueled by reports that Autodesk (ADSK) is eyeing a potential acquisition of the engineering software firm.
• Nvidia continued its climb, following Tuesday’s record-setting close that pushed its market value above $4 trillion—making it the largest company ever by market cap, nearly $1 trillion greater than the entire S&P 400 Midcap Index. AMD, Nvidia’s competitor, also gained 2% after HSBC upgraded it to a Buy rating.

What to Watch Ahead

Traders will have plenty to focus on next week as a slew of important economic indicators are set for release, including June’s consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI), alongside the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book and retail sales figures.

The new earnings season also kicks off with heavyweight reports from companies like 3M (MMM), Bank of America (BAC), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Citigroup (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), GE Aerospace (GE), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), Netflix (NFLX), PepsiCo (PEP), United Airlines (UAL), and Wells Fargo (WFC).

Here’s a rundown of the key market events scheduled for the week (dates are tentative and subject to change):

• Monday, July 14: A quiet start with no major economic data scheduled.
• Tuesday, July 15: June’s CPI and core CPI readings are released along with the Empire State manufacturing survey. Investors will also watch industrial production, capacity utilization data, and remarks from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.
• Wednesday, July 16: PPI and core PPI figures for June will be published, alongside the Fed’s Beige Book report.
• Thursday, July 17: Besides weekly jobless claims, look for retail sales data, import price index, Philadelphia manufacturing survey, business inventories, and the home builder confidence index.
• Friday, July 18: The week wraps up with housing starts, building permits, and preliminary consumer sentiment data.

Several Wall Street analysts have lifted their price targets on JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) this week, signaling growing optimism ahead of the major banks’ earnings reports next week.

In a notably bullish move, Keefe Bruyette & Woods analyst Christopher McGratty upgraded both JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley from market perform to outperform. He raised JPMorgan’s price target to 327 from 253, and Morgan Stanley’s to 160 from 127.