Market Snapshot for Monday 7-14-2025
Dow Jones – 44,459.65 (+0.20%)
NASDAQ – 20,640.33 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 – 6,286.56 (+0.14%)
Market Performance
U.S. stock futures were mixed Monday evening as Wall Street braced for a pivotal consumer inflation report and the start of earnings season, with tariff-related worries looming over both events.
Stocks edged higher to kick off the week, with the Nasdaq Composite seeing a fresh record close Monday as investors looked past renewed trade tensions and turned their focus to a key inflation report and the start of second quarter earnings this week.
In global markets, Asian indexes ended mixed overnight as China’s trade surplus unexpectedly surged to $115 billion in June, despite ongoing tariff pressures. European markets declined in response to newly imposed 30% U.S. tariffs on EU exports.
Economic Takeaways –
- Headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% month over month and 2.4% year over year.
- Global EV sales jumped 24% in June through North American market struggles according to research firm Rho Motion.
- President Trump has unveiled new letters to over 20 countries outlining tariffs ranging from 20% to 50%, including a 35% duty on Canadian goods and 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union.
- Over the past several days, Trump has ramped up threats against major trade partners — including Canada, the European Union, and Mexico — warning of steep tariffs set to take effect on August 1.
- Bond yields edged higher, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 4.43%, still below its May high of nearly 4.60%.
- The U.S. dollar strengthened against major global currencies.
- Data from FactSet published earlier this month showedanalysts expect S&P 500 companies to report a 5% jump in earnings per share during the second quarter.
- According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month stood at just 6% as of Monday morning, with the odds of at least one cut by September at around 61%. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told The Wall Street Journal on Friday that recently announced tariffs from Trump could delay rate cuts by complicating the inflation picture.
Gold –
- Gold eased after hitting a three-week high while silver surged to an almost 14-year high.
Oil –
- WTI crude prices slipped as traders weighed the potential for new U.S. sanctions on purchasers of Russian oil.
- Crude oil prices (/CL) climbed 1.5% early Monday amid concerns that rising tariffs could increase global costs.
Crypto –
- Bitcoin breached $123,000 for the first time, with investor optimism increasing almost daily. “Bitcoin’s cleared $120,000, but the real test is $125,000,” said Rachael Lucas, a crypto analyst at BTC Markets.
- Coinbase (COIN) shares are up 80% over the past year.
- The beginning of Cryptoweek kicked off on Monday.
CPI Report on Deck…
June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show that inflation picked up pace compared to May. The report, set for release Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, comes as investors watch closely to see if President Trump’s tariffs are beginning to influence consumer prices, even as inflation has so far proven more resilient than many anticipated.
Per Bloomberg data, headline CPI is expected to have risen 2.6% year over year in June, up from May’s 2.4% increase. On a monthly basis, prices are forecast to advance 0.3%, accelerating from the prior month’s 0.1% gain.
On a “core” basis, which excludes food and energy, June’s annual inflation rate is projected at 2.9%, slightly above May’s 2.8%. Core prices are also expected to rise 0.3% month over month, following a more modest 0.1% increase in May.
In May, declines in car and apparel prices—two areas viewed as early signals of tariff effects—helped produce a cooler-than-expected core CPI reading. But economists anticipate those trends reversed in June, possibly driving core inflation higher.
This latest report arrives amid escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and its global partners. President Trump has issued new letters to more than 20 countries outlining tariffs ranging from 20% to 50%, including a 35% duty on Canadian goods and 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union.
He has also floated sweeping 15% to 20% tariffs on most trading partners. The EU, in turn, is scrambling to negotiate while preparing potential countermeasures.
Starbucks Tightens Office Return Policy for 4 Days a Week
Starbucks (SBUX) CEO Brian Niccol is reinforcing the company’s return-to-office strategy with a stricter mandate.
In a message to employees on Monday, Niccol announced that starting in late September, all support partners and people managers will be required to work from the office four days per week.
The company is also expanding the scope of its relocation expectations. Employees designated for in-person work in either of its North American headquarters—Seattle and Toronto—will be given one year to relocate. Starbucks noted that it will offer buyouts to those who choose not to comply with the new requirements as part of this broader initiative.
“We are reestablishing our in-office culture because we do our best work when we’re together,” CEO Brian Niccol wrote. “We share ideas more effectively, creatively solve hard problems, and move much faster. Being in person also helps us build and strengthen our culture. As we work to turn the business around, all these things matter more than ever.”
The shift comes as Starbucks grapples with weak performance: in April, the company reported that U.S. same-store sales had declined for the fifth consecutive quarter to start 2025—an outcome Niccol described as “disappointing.”
So far this year, Starbucks shares are up just 2%, trailing the broader S&P 500’s nearly 7% gain.
S&P 500 Gets Forecast Lift
In a client note on Sunday, RBC Capital Markets raised its year-end S&P 500 forecast to 6,250, up from its previous target of 5,730. The upgrade comes after the index surged more than 25% from its April lows—levels hit shortly after Trump announced a broad set of higher-than-expected tariffs on goods from multiple countries. Those tariffs have since been delayed, with the U.S. currently engaged in negotiations.
RBC’s revised target essentially returns the benchmark to where it stood in mid-March, before most of the tariff-related volatility took hold. A target of 6,250 would leave the index nearly flat compared to last week’s close, when it reached a new all-time high.
“We feel neutral on the outlook for stocks in the 2nd half of 2025, and are mindful that our new price target is essentially in line with recent levels,” wrote Lori Calvasina, RBC’s head of U.S. equity strategy. “We expect choppy conditions in the back half of the year, and swings in both directions.”
Calvasina also cautioned that it’s likely still “too early to stop worrying about tariff impacts” on corporate earnings.
Kenny Polcari, chief market strategist at SlateStone Wealth, told Yahoo Finance. “Do I think there will be bumps along the way? Absolutely. But by 2030, I think we could see the S&P 500 hit 10,000.”
Top Gainers
Several stocks experienced significant gains. Some of the top gainers included:
- Seres Therapeutics, Inc. (MCRB) moved higher by 18.14%
- Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) soared by 17.27%
- NuScale Power Corp. (SMR) exploded 12.38%
- Oklo Inc. (OKLO) surged 11.29%
- TMC the metals company (TMC) rose 10.81%
- Rocket Lab Corp. (RKLB) moved up 10.71%
- Kingsoft Cloud Holding (KC) rose 9.95%
- Pitney Bowes, Inc. (PBI) spiked 9.90%
- VEON Ltd. (VEON) moved up 8.97%
- QuantumSpace Corp. (QS) surged 8.88%
Top Losers
The top US stock losers today, based on percentage change included:
- Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NEGG) moved lower 26.44%
- Waters Corporation (WAT) moved down 13.81%
- Civitas Resources, Inc. (CIVI) sank 7.11%
- Repligen Corp. (RGEN) fell 6.81%
- The Gap, Inc. (GAP) was down 6.13%
- PBF Energy, Inc. (PBF) sank 5.86%
- Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) 5.82%
- Amarin Corp. plc (AMRN) down 4.90%
- Noble Corp. plc (NE) 4.81%
- Fortuna Mining Corp. (FSM) dragged 4.78%
Notables
- Procter & Gamble (PG) stock slipped about 2% on Monday after Evercore ISI analysts downgraded shares to In Line from Outperform.
- Tesla stock (TSLA) climbed Monday morning after CEO Elon Musk announced that the company could potentially invest in his AI startup, xAI (XAAI.PVT), pending approval from shareholders.
- Kraft Heinz (KHC) inched up more after climbing 1.6% on Friday following a Wall Street Journal report that the company is considering a potential split, possibly spinning off part of its grocery business.
- Boeing (BA) gained. An initial investigation into the June 12 crash of Air India Flight 171 did not point to mechanical failure.
- Best Buy (BBY) slipped after Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to Neutral from Overweight, citing a lack of major catalysts and mounting competitive pressures.
- Fastenal (FAST) jumped following a better-than-expected earnings report from the industrial supply company.
- Autodesk (ADSK) surged after Bloomberg reported the company is no longer exploring a merger or acquisition deal with PTC (PTC), whose shares dropped 5% ahead of the open.
- Kenvue (KVUE) rose after announcing a leadership change, naming a new CEO.
What to Watch Ahead
June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), set to be released tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET, and is anticipated to show a quicker pace of price increases compared to May. Investors are paying close attention to the data as they assess whether President Trump’s tariffs are beginning to affect consumer prices, despite inflation readings that have so far been more resilient than expected.
Major banks will also unofficially launch the latest earnings season Tuesday morning, with JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) set to report. The financial giants are expected to reassure investors that the tariff-related turbulence of the second quarter is behind them and that momentum is building heading into the second half of the year.
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