Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Falls More Than Expected: Markets Breathe Sigh Of Relief

The Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure came in below expectations for November, delivering welcome relief Friday to markets after the central bank warned earlier this week of mounting price pressures heading into the new year.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index grew by 2.4% in November 2024 on a year-over-year basis, up from 2.3% in October, according to government data. The figure missed economist forecasts of 2.5%, yet it marked the second consecutive monthly increase in this key inflation measure.

On a monthly basis, the PCE index advanced 0.1%, decelerating from October's 0.2%.

Excluding volatile components like food and energy, core PCE held steady at 2.8% year-over-year, below expectations of 2.9%. On a monthly basis, core PCE growth slowed to 0.1%, down from the prior 0.3% and below expectations of 0.2%.

In tandem with the inflation data, the report also showed that personal income rose 0.3% month-over-month in November, slowing from October's 0.5% increase and missing expectations of 0.4%. Personal spending grew by 0.4%, slightly below forecasts but in line with October's increase, signaling resilient consumer activity heading into the holiday season.

Another Reality Check For Markets

The unexpectedly softer November PCE reading could provide relief after days of heightened market volatility triggered by this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

On Wednesday, the Fed signaled a slower pace of rate cuts and raised its inflation projections for 2025 and beyond, reinforcing its hawkish stance.

Policymakers now forecast headline PCE inflation to reach 2.5% next year, up from the September projection of 2.1%, and 2.1% in 2026, compared to the previous 2% estimate. Similarly, core PCE inflation is now expected to hit 2.5% in 2025, up from 2.2%, and 2.1% in 2026, revised from 2%.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks further dashed market hopes when he announced a "new phase" in monetary policy, signaling caution against easing further as interest rates approach the neutral level.

Prior to Friday's data release, money markets had priced in 65 basis points of cumulative rate cuts for next year.

Dollar Falls, Equity Futures Trim Losses

• The U.S. dollar index (DXY) – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF UUP – tumbled 0.3%.
• Futures on major U.S. indices trimmed premarket losses, with contracts on the S&P 500 down by 0.7% at 8:35 a.m. in New York. On Thursday the S&P 500 – as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY – closed 0.1% lower, bringing its cumulative decline since the Fed’s meeting to over 3%.
• Gold surged by 0.6% to $2,610 per ounce.
• Bitcoin BTC/USD slightly rebounded after the news to above $95,000 levels, cutting daily losses to 2%. Prior to this week’s Fed meeting, the largest cryptocurrency had reached an all-time high of $108,364.

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