Friday Wrap Up

Sophia Reyes · July 4, 2025 1:46 PM

Market Snapshot for Thursday 7-3-2025

Dow Jones – 44,828.53 (+0.77%)
NASDAQ – 20,601.10 (+1.02%)
S&P 500 – 6,279.35 (+0.83%)

Market Performance

Markets posted solid gains in yesterday’s holiday-shortened session, buoyed by a stronger-than-expected U.S. labor report for June. Major U.S. large- and small-cap indexes climbed between 0.75% and 1.0%, while Canadian stocks also advanced, albeit more modestly, with a 0.5% gain. The markets are closed today for the 4th of July.

Economic Takeaways –

• The June labor report came in more strongly than anticipated, with payrolls rising by 147,000 for the month and prior data revised upward by a net 16,000 over the past two months.
• Upbeat jobs data prompted traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Markets are now pricing in 51 basis points (0.51%) of easing for 2025, down from 65 basis points at yesterday’s close.
• This repricing sparked a broader sell-off in U.S. Treasurys, pushing the 2-year yield up by 10 basis points and the 10-year yield higher by 6 basis points at the close.
• The dollar index slipped 0.2% and was on track for a second week of decline, making gold less expensive for other currency holders.
• The trade-weighted U.S. dollar rose 0.45% on the day, lifted by stronger economic data and rising domestic interest rates.
• Despite volatility, stock markets finished the first half at all-time highs, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both higher by over 6% year-to-date.

Gold –

• Gold prices rebounded on Friday and were heading for a weekly gain, helped by a retreat in the U.S. dollar and safe-haven inflows.
• Spot gold was up 0.3% to $3,336.39 per ounce, as of 1211 GMT. The precious metal is up about 1.9% this week.
• U.S. gold futures gained 0.1% to $3,346.60.

Oil –

• Oil futures slipped slightly Friday on thin holiday volumes, as the market looked ahead to this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting and anticipations that member countries will decide this weekend to raise output.
• Brent crude futures were down 58 cents, or 0.84%, at $68.20 a barrel by 12:23 ET (1623 GMT).
• S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 59 cents, or 0.88%, to $66.41.

Crypto –

• The price of Bitcoin settled under $108,000.
• Wallet addresses each containing 10,000 BTC woke up for the first time in more than 14 years. The 10,000 BTC in two of the addresses was valued at $7,800 when the initial transfer was made in April 2011. The other wallets received 10,000 BTC when that was worth $33,700 in May 2011, now $1.1 billion.

Time’s Up for Some U.S. Trade Partners Ahead of Trump’s Tariff Deadline

Several U.S. trade partners have run out of time to strike deals before President Trump’s July 9 deadline, after which tariffs are set to revert to higher levels.

Starting Friday, letters will be sent out to inform countries of the new tariff rates they’ll face on exports to the U.S., Trump told reporters. The changes are scheduled to take effect on August 1. The initial batch of 10 to 12 countries will be followed by additional rounds.

“By the ninth they’ll be fully covered,” Trump said, according to Bloomberg. “They’ll range in value from maybe 60% or 70% tariffs to 10% and 20% tariffs.”

So far, the administration has only finalized three trade deals, despite focusing intensely on negotiations.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said around 100 countries are expected to face a minimum “reciprocal” tariff of 10% starting next week. He also predicted a “flurry” of last-minute deals before the deadline.

Here’s the latest status with key trade partners:

China: The U.S. has rolled back export restrictions on chip design software and ethane, signaling progress in trade relations after both countries agreed in May on a framework for a broader deal. U.S. software firms such as Synopsys (SNPS) and Cadence (CDNS) confirmed they will resume sales to Chinese customers. The U.S. also lifted recently imposed limits on ethane exports to China.

Vietnam: Trump announced a deal with Vietnam on Wednesday that sets a 20% tariff on imports—down from the 46% he threatened in April. However, he warned that Vietnamese goods involved in transshipping—goods originating in a third country like China—will face a 40% tariff. U.S. exports to Vietnam will largely remain duty-free.

Japan: Negotiations with Japan have faltered. Earlier this week, Trump said he would impose tariffs of “30%, 35%, or whatever the number is that we determine,” exceeding the prior 24% “Liberation Day” level. “They’re very tough. You have to understand, they’re very spoiled,” he said.

European Union: The EU has offered to accept a blanket 10% tariff on many exports but is pushing for exemptions on pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft. Talks are expected to continue through the weekend. Trump has threatened 50% tariffs on EU imports if no agreement is reached.

Canada: Canada has dropped its proposed digital services tax, which would have impacted major U.S. tech firms. Following Trump’s warning to end negotiations, talks between the two nations have resumed, with both sides aiming for a deal by mid-July.

Bloomberg reports:

Trump told reporters that about “10 or 12” letters would go out Friday, with additional letters coming “over the next few days.”

“I think by the ninth they’ll be fully covered,” Trump added, referring to a July 9 deadline he initially set for countries to reach deals with the US to avoid higher import duties he has threatened. “They’ll range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20% tariffs,” he added.

Microsoft and Nvidia: The Unlikely $4 Trillion Power Duo

Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA) are closing in on an elite milestone—both poised to become $4 trillion companies, forming the most exclusive club on Wall Street.

The AI boom has powered both companies’ meteoric rise. But while Nvidia’s path is clear-cut, Microsoft’s is more complex—and its ultimate payoff less certain.

A Tale of Two Tech Giants

Microsoft, a significantly larger business than Nvidia in terms of annual revenue, plays a different role in the AI ecosystem. Nvidia thrives because anyone who wants to build with AI needs its chips. Microsoft, by contrast, is betting that businesses and consumers alike will pay a premium for AI-powered services.

“For that to happen,” the authors write, “AI will have to become a more transformative corporate tool fully woven through everyday life—much like Microsoft’s Windows operating system or Word office software became decades ago.”

Many analysts believe it’s a matter of “when,” not “if.” Still, timing is critical—especially since Microsoft has added $1 trillion to its market cap in under three months. At a $4 trillion valuation, its stock would carry the highest earnings multiple seen in over 20 years.

High Expectations, No Margin for Error

That lofty valuation leaves little room for mistakes—or even minor setbacks.

Microsoft’s early partnership with OpenAI initially gave it a front-row seat in the AI boom, allowing it to integrate ChatGPT technology into its products. But that alliance is now facing headwinds.

“OpenAI wants to change its unusual corporate structure and become a regular for-profit company,” the authors note, “part of a long-running effort to disentangle itself from a benefactor that is also a competitor.”

More troubling for Microsoft, OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) retains the right to limit access to future breakthroughs if it reaches “artificial general intelligence”—a vague but critical threshold that could restrict Microsoft’s use of key technologies.

The software giant has also reportedly struggled to develop its own AI chips, which would reduce its reliance on Nvidia. And it’s facing turbulence internally. On Wednesday, Microsoft confirmed it will cut another 9,000 jobs, after already eliminating 6,000 roles in May.

At a moment when investor expectations are sky-high, Microsoft may need AI to deliver more than just promise—it needs it to perform.

During Thursday’s session, 36 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs, with 25 of them reaching all-time highs.

Notable names achieving these milestones include:

• Royal Caribbean, trading at all-time highs since its IPO in April 1993
• American Express, at all-time highs dating back to its IPO in May 1977
• Capital One, reaching all-time highs since its IPO in November 1994
• Goldman Sachs, trading at all-time highs since its IPO in May 1999
• JPMorgan, hitting all-time highs going back to 1983
• Loews, at all-time highs throughout recorded history back to 1972
• Morgan Stanley, trading at all-time highs since its 1997 merger with Dean, Witter, Discover & Co
• Nasdaq, at all-time highs dating back to April 2003
• CrowdStrike, reaching all-time highs since its IPO in June 2019
• Nvidia, trading at all-time highs since its IPO in January 1999
• Oracle, at all-time highs since its IPO on March 12, 1986

Notables

• Solar stocks climbed in midmorning trading on Thursday as President Donald Trump’s sweeping economic bill edged closer to passage ahead of the White House’s self-imposed July 4 deadline. While the legislation doesn’t include new incentives for clean energy, the Senate version passed earlier this week removed a tax provision targeting solar and wind projects. First Solar (FSLR) jumped 8%, and Enphase Energy (ENPH), a maker of solar microinverters, gained 5%. The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) rose more than 3%.
• Cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike (CRWD) advanced roughly 4% after Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives raised his price target from $525 to $575. Ives cited “increased momentum in the field around its cyber platform approach,” adding, “CrowdStrike remains one of our favorite tech names, and we are seeing deal momentum spread with AI also a clear tailwind for this well-positioned tech leader.”
• Chip design firms Synopsys (SNPS) and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) each rallied after the U.S. government lifted export restrictions on advanced chip design software to China, according to industry reports.
• Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA) and other members of the “Magnificent Seven” continued to slide in early trading, extending losses from Wednesday as investors rotated out of large-cap tech and communication services. Still, Wedbush’s Dan Ives remains bullish, forecasting that both Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia could hit a $4 trillion market cap this summer. “We believe tech stocks will have a very strong second half of the year,” Ives said. “Our bullish view is that investors are still underestimating the tidal wave of growth on the horizon from the $2 trillion of spending over the next 3 years coming from enterprise and government spending around AI technology and use cases.”
• Tesla (TSLA) rose despite reporting a 14% year-over-year drop in quarterly deliveries—its second straight quarterly decline. The company delivered 384,122 vehicles in Q2, missing analyst expectations of just over 390,000 and falling from 443,956 a year ago.
• Datadog (DDOG) surged after announcing it will join the S&P 500 next Wednesday, replacing Juniper Networks following its acquisition by Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE).
• In the auto sector, General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) gained even as U.S. auto sales slipped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.3 million vehicles in June, down from 15.7 million in May.

What to Watch Ahead

July 7: No major earnings or data expected.
July 8: No major earnings or data expected.
July 9: FOMC minutes.
July 10: Expected earnings from Conagra (CAG), Delta (DAL), and Levi Strauss (LEVI).