Is Moderna Stock A Sell As RFK Jr. Reportedly Mulls A Massive Funding Pull?

"Vaccines are a very important piece of keeping people healthy and we look forward to having those discussions," he said on the company's Feb. 14 earnings conference call with analysts.

But reports emerged recently that the Department of Health and Human Services it considering pulling the $590 million contract Moderna received in late January to develop a bird flu vaccine. The funding came from the Center for Biological Advance Research and Development Authority, a division of HHS. The funding was awarded several weeks before Kennedy was confirmed as the HHS secretary. Kennedy is a widely known vaccine skeptic who has called into question their safety.

The Food and Drug Administration also unexpectedly canceled the annual meeting scheduled for March to select the strains to target in this year's flu vaccines. Moderna is testing a standalone flu shot in a two-season test that could wrap this year.

Moderna also reported steep losses for the fourth quarter, but topped sales expectations. The company kept its sales outlook for 2025.

So, all in all, is Moderna stock a buy or a sell today?

Moderna Stock Faces A Mixed Report

During the fourth quarter, Moderna lost $2.91 per share on $$966 million in sales. Losses flipped from a year-earlier gain of 55 cents and missed forecasts for a narrower loss. Sales beat forecasts, but fell 66% year over year.

Both its products — Covid vaccine Spikevax and the respiratory syncytial virus vaccine called mResvia — beat sales projections. Spikevax generated $923 million in sales, ahead of calls for $909 million, while mResvia brought in $15 million in sales. Analysts polled by FactSet forecasted $13 million.

Moderna kept its outlook for 2025. It expects $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion in sales this year. The midpoint of the guidance is far below analysts' call for $2.32 billion.

"While the third quarter represented an encouraging start to the company's redesigned path on the cost-cutting side, today's updates seemingly cloud the trajectory," William Blair's Minter said in a Jan. 13 report to clients following Moderna's presentation at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference.

Moderna stock fell by 17% that day.

Expanding The Portfolio

The company is working hard to expand its portfolio.

Moderna's technology focuses on helping the body create specific messenger RNA, or mRNA. When the mRNA sees a specific target in the body — like the spike protein on the coronavirus that causes Covid — it latches on, preventing the virus from spreading in the body.

Moderna expects the FDA to make an approval decision on its next-generation Covid vaccine in late May. The company is also working to expand its RSV vaccine to adults younger than age 60 and expects to have pivotal test data from its norovirus vaccine later this year.

Further, Moderna is working on a cancer vaccine in partnership with Merck (MRK). In this case, the mRNA grabs onto a specific target bespoke to each patient's cancer. The companies are testing the cancer vaccine in combination with Merck's blockbuster drug, Keytruda. Moderna stock surged more than 8% after Oracle (ORCL) Chairman Larry Ellison said in January that mRNA-based cancer vaccines could be developed in under 48 hours with the help of artificial intelligence.

But sales are expected to hit a floor this year. Analysts don't expect Moderna to become profitable, on a strict, as-reported basis, until 2029.

Further, the company's cytomegalovirus vaccine study missed its mark in a recent study. Cytomegalovirus, or CMV, doesn't usually carry symptoms. But it can cause fever, sore throat, swollen glands, stomach pain and jaundice.

Moderna Stock's Bearish Ratings

Moderna stock is showing bearish fundamentals and technicals.

First, shares are trading below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, according to MarketSurge. Second, the stock is not forming a base for investors to watch. Even if it does, it will likely face a ceiling at its key moving averages.

Shares also have a poor IBD Digital Relative Strength Rating of 6. This means Moderna stock ranks in the bottom 6% of all stocks when it comes to 12-month performance. Moderna shares also have a low Composite Rating of 17, putting them in the bottom one-fifth of all stocks when it comes to technical and fundamental measures.

Its EPS Rating is its highest rating at a still-low 28. And Moderna is on track for years of losses. The company is working on cutting its costs and now expects to reduce its costs by $1 billion this year and $500 million next year.

Moderna stock peaked at 497.49 in August 2021, at the height of the Covid pandemic. Since then, the stock has fallen precipitously, down more than 93% over the past four years.

Is Moderna Stock A Buy Or A Sell?

Despite a promising move after Ellison noted the potential for AI in cancer vaccine development, Moderna stock isn't a buy.

In fact, shares were definitively a sell on Jan. 13 when they tumbled below their 50-day line. Though shares have made moves to retake their key line, Moderna stock has mostly closed below its 50-day moving average this year.

It could take several years for Moderna's pipeline to really pan out, analysts say. In the meantime, its Covid vaccine has yet to hit a bottom and its RSV vaccine is coming from behind in competition with Pfizer (PFE) and GSK (GSK).

To find the best stocks to buy and watch, check out IBD Stock Lists. Make sure to also keep tabs on stocks to buy or sell.

Follow Allison Gatlin on X/Twitter at @AGatlin_IBD.

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