McDonald’s (MCD) is set to revive its iconic Monopoly promotion in the U.S. for the first time in nearly a decade, a move that analysts say could provide a meaningful boost to sales, app engagement, and customer loyalty. Jefferies analyst Andy Barish highlighted the return of the game as a positive catalyst in a note to clients, suggesting the promotion could drive traffic amid ongoing pressures on consumer spending.
“The MONOPOLY game will return to the U.S. for the first time in nearly a decade, which we think will be received positively,” Barish wrote, citing the promotion’s historical effectiveness in attracting customers. McDonald’s shares have risen just over 3% year-to-date, lagging the S&P 500’s 15% gain, but Jefferies sees room for upside and maintains a Buy rating with a $360 price target.
Over the past year, McDonald’s has delivered mixed results, combining strong earnings that frequently beat analyst expectations with ongoing challenges in global same-store sales. The company’s performance has been affected by inflation-driven changes in consumer behavior as well as broader geopolitical tensions. Analysts expect the Monopoly promotion to help reverse some of those pressures by boosting foot traffic, increasing app downloads, and encouraging loyalty program sign-ups.
The promotion coincides with McDonald’s Extra Value Meals (EVM), which reduce the cost of popular items such as the Big Mac and McCrispy sandwiches by roughly 15% compared to a la carte pricing. Barish expects that the combined effect of the promotion and EVM offerings could strengthen customer traffic into the fourth quarter, offsetting lower average checks.
“We expect traffic to build steadily from here and start more than offsetting lower check in 4Q as awareness around EVM builds momentum on top of many other value options on the menu,” Barish wrote. To support the effort, McDonald’s is investing an additional $40 million in advertising and offering rent rebates to certain franchisees. Currently, over 90% of U.S. McDonald’s locations are franchisee-operated, making these initiatives key to execution.
The Monopoly promotion has a long and storied history with McDonald’s. First launched in 1987, it has been one of the chain’s most effective marketing tools, though it was marred by a notorious fraud scandal in the 1990s and early 2000s. Security officer Jerome P. Jacobson, responsible for overseeing the game, rigged the contest, resulting in convictions for more than 50 individuals. The scandal was later chronicled in the HBO documentary McMillions and led to McDonald’s temporarily moving the promotion abroad, where it continues to be popular.
Despite its troubled past, Barish believes the relaunch could capitalize on nostalgia and recent successes in international markets. Prizes for this year’s promotion include a Jeep Grand Cherokee and a $10,000 Lowe’s shopping spree, offering consumers both tangible rewards and a compelling reason to engage with the brand once again.
With the Monopoly promotion and Extra Value Meals, McDonald’s appears poised to leverage both nostalgia and value-oriented marketing to reignite U.S. traffic and strengthen its competitive position in the fast-food sector. Analysts see the potential for measurable upside, making the promotion an important element of the company’s broader strategy to bolster sales heading into the holiday season.
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