Mid-Day Buzz

Sophia Reyes · July 18, 2025 10:48 AM

July 18^th, 2025

Markets Reach New Highs Amid Strong Earnings and Economic Data

Stocks edged higher out of the gate, building on yesterday’s record close. Equity markets extended their rally this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting fresh record highs. The gains are supported by a strong economic backdrop and upbeat corporate earnings. Netflix beat expectations and raised its full-year guidance, though shares slipped on lofty investor expectations after a 43% gain year-to-date.

Economic Takeaways:

• The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, released Friday, showed a decline in inflation concerns, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to 4.4% in July from 5% in June.
• Bond yields and the U.S. dollar drifted lower after dovish remarks from Fed Governor Waller.
• Fed Governor Waller floated the possibility of a July rate cut, arguing the Fed should act preemptively and discount tariff-driven inflation. However, markets still view a September cut as more likely, pricing in roughly a 60% chance. With inflation risks lingering and unemployment low, the Fed is expected to proceed cautiously.
• Initial jobless claims declined, signaling labor market strength, while June retail sales came in above expectations.
• The S&P 500’s expected earnings growth for the quarter has been revised up to 10%, from 4% just weeks ago.
• After falling to five-month lows in early July, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) showed life at mid-month but remains below its long-term average of 20.
• The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model lowered its Q2 growth estimate to 2.4% from 2.6%, citing weaker real personal consumption data. The first official government GDP estimate is due July 30.
• June housing data was mixed. Overall starts rose 4.6% month-over-month and permits edged up 0.2%, reaching annualized rates of 1.321 million and 1.397 million, respectively. However, single-family starts and permits declined 4.6% and 3.7%, which may dampen some of the optimism, according to Briefing.com.
• As of early Friday, the probability of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming July meeting remained below 5%, while markets priced in about a 61% chance of at least one cut by September, per the CME FedWatch Tool.
• Oil prices gave up some early gains on Friday as concerns over tighter global supply intensified, fueled by rising tensions in the Middle East and fresh sanctions on major energy exporter Russia. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) rose as much as 2% before easing back to trade near $67 a barrel. Brent crude (BZ=F), the global benchmark, also pulled back from session highs but remained above $69 a barrel.

Trump Diagnosed with Chronic Venous Insufficiency

President Donald Trump has been diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency after reporting mild leg swelling in recent weeks, the White House said Thursday. The condition, confirmed through vascular studies and Doppler ultrasounds, is described by Trump’s physician, Capt. Sean Barbabella, as “a benign and common condition, particularly in individuals over the age of 70.”

Barbabella emphasized there was “no evidence of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) or arterial disease,” and that Trump’s lab tests, echocardiogram, and overall health remain normal. “No signs of heart failure, renal impairment, or systemic illness were identified,” he noted.

Trump is reportedly experiencing “no discomfort,” and bruising on his hand was attributed to “frequent handshaking” and aspirin use. “President Trump remains in excellent health,” the letter concluded.

Larry Ellison Becomes World’s Second-Richest Person

Oracle founder Larry Ellison has overtaken Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg to become the world’s second-richest person, with a net worth of $257 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaire Index. Surging Oracle shares added over $60 billion to Ellison’s wealth this year, including a $40 billion jump in just three days in June.

Ellison’s rise comes as Oracle ramps up AI and cloud investments, including a newly announced $3 billion expansion in Europe. “In 2010, Ellison joined the Giving Pledge… pledging to give a majority of his wealth to charitable causes in his lifetime.”

Elon Musk remains No. 1 despite $66.9 billion in losses this year. Other top billionaires include Jeff Bezos, Steve Ballmer, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Bernard Arnault, Jensen Huang, and Warren Buffett.

On the Move

• 3M topped estimates and raised its profit forecast, citing minimal impact from tariffs.
• American Express delivered solid results, highlighting robust spending by high-income consumers. The company reported record cardmember spending, driven by continued demand for its premium products.
• Netflix (NFLX) earnings and guidance topped expectations late Thursday but failed to impress investors with shares declining Friday morning.
• Chipotle (CMG) added 1.5% pre-market after receiving an upgrade to “Outperform” from BMO Capital.
• Eli Lilly (LLY) edged higher after dropping 3.5% in the prior session. The decline followed reports that a Chinese firm’s new weight-loss drug performed nearly as well as Lilly’s Zepbound in late-stage trials, according to Barron’s.
• Bitcoin traded slightly higher early Friday, but crypto-related stocks rallied. Circle Internet Group (CRCL) and Coinbase (COIN) climbed over 2% after the U.S. House passed the “Genius Act,” which establishes a regulatory framework for dollar-backed stablecoins. The total crypto market value surpassed $4 trillion following the news, Reuters reported.
• Micron (MU) ticked up after a drop Thursday tied to Goldman Sachs lowering its rating on South Korea’s SK Hynix, a key Nvidia supplier. Goldman warned that high-bandwidth memory (HBM) pricing could weaken in 2025. Micron also competes in the HBM market.
• Chevron (CVX) rose 3% following a CNBC report that it won a mediation case against Exxon Mobil (XOM) over ownership rights to oilfields in Guyana. The ruling clears the path for Chevron’s $53 billion acquisition of Hess (HES), which surged 7.4% on the news.
• Norfolk Southern (NSC) jumped 4% on reports from The Wall Street Journal that Union Pacific (UNP) is exploring a potential acquisition.

What’s Ahead

The Fed is set to make its next interest rate decision in less than two weeks, on July 30—just one day before the release of the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, its preferred measure of inflation, and two days ahead of the July nonfarm payrolls report.