July 9th, 2025
Stocks Climb as Tariff Decisions Loom; Tech Leads, Bond Yields Dip
Equity markets opened higher on Wednesday, buoyed by investor anticipation of new tariff announcements from President Trump, which could arrive as early as today. Growth-oriented sectors, particularly communication services and technology, are leading the gains, reflecting a risk-on sentiment. Meanwhile, energy and consumer staples are underperforming. Internationally, Asian markets closed mixed, while European indexes are trading in positive territory.
Economic Takeaways:
- The U.S. dollar is advancing against major global currencies.
- WTI crude is trading lower, pressured by concerns over the impact of the new 50% copper tariff on global growth.
- Bond yields are edging down, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.38%. The U.S. Treasury plans to auction $39 billion in 10-year notes and $65 billion in four-month bills today as part of its effort to rebuild its general account.
- the CME FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a July rate cut remains low at under 5%, though markets are pricing in a 66% chance of at least one rate cut by September.
- CoreWeave’s deal with Core Scientific has pushed the AI merger tally to over $65 billion.
- U.S. copper prices (HG=F) fell 3% on Wednesday, pulling back from record highs set in the previous session as traders reacted to President Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on copper imports.
- President Trump’s hunt for a potential replacement for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is gaining momentum, with several candidates stepping up their criticism of the central bank’s policies in an effort to stand out. According to The Wall Street Journal, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has emerged as a serious contender for the role.
Trade Developments Remain in Focus
President Trump has unveiled fresh tariffs on 14 countries this week, with new rates ranging from 25% to 40%. Countries that have not finalized trade deals will be subject to these tariffs starting August 1 — a slight delay from the original July 9 deadline ending the 90-day reprieve. Notably, the average tariff rate in this round is about three percentage points lower than those announced on April 2, suggesting some degree of flexibility.
Vietnam reached a deal with the U.S. on July 2 that imposes a 20% tariff on its exports, down from 46% initially proposed. The U.K. previously secured a trade agreement that sets tariffs at 10%.
Nvidia Smashes the $4 Trillion Ceiling, Outpacing Big Tech Rivals in the AI Chip Race
Nvidia (NVDA) on Wednesday became the first publicly traded company to reach a $4 trillion market valuation, eclipsing other tech titans like Microsoft and Apple (AAPL). The chipmaker’s stock has surged 22% year-to-date and 24% over the past 12 months.
The company continues to ride the wave of generative AI enthusiasm that began with OpenAI’s ChatGPT in 2022. Nvidia’s combination of high-performance chips, modified GPUs, and its proprietary CUDA software platform gives it a decisive edge in powering AI applications — a challenge that rivals like AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC) have yet to match.
Jeff Bezos Sells Nearly $666 Million in Amazon Stock as Part of Long-Term Share Unloading Plan
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has sold nearly 3 million shares of Amazon stock, totaling $665.8 million, over a two-day span in July, according to a regulatory filing released Tuesday.
The transaction is part of a previously announced trading plan that allows Bezos to offload up to 25 million Amazon shares through May 2026. He had already sold $736.7 million worth of stock in late June.
Despite the recent sales, Bezos remains Amazon’s largest individual shareholder, holding more than 900 million shares valued at nearly $200 billion. He stepped down as CEO in 2021 but continues to serve as the company’s chairman.
On the Move
- Nvidia (NVDA) stock hit a new intraday record this morning, taking the crown of the most valuable company in history.
- Apple (AAPL) announced on Wednesday that COO Jeff Williams, the company’s No. 2 executive, will be stepping down from his role this month and retiring later this year.
- Microsoft (MSFT) rose 0.8% after Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to Outperform from Perform, citing ongoing strength in the company’s Azure cloud business.
- Verona Pharma (VRNA) soared 20% following news that it will be acquired by Merck (MRK) in a deal valued at roughly $10 billion, fueling a rally in biotech.
- Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) gained 1.8%, as copper futures surged to record highs after President Trump announced 50% tariffs on copper imports. The move is seen as a boon for domestic miners but could pose challenges for copper-reliant manufacturers.
- Hershey (HSY) was flat in early trading Wednesday, after falling 3% the previous session. The decline followed the announcement that Kirk Tanner, former CEO of Wendy’s (WEN), will take over as Hershey’s CEO on August 18, succeeding Michele Buck.
- Moderna (MRNA) added another 0.5% in early trading after a 9% surge Tuesday. The stock has been buoyed by recent U.S. budget legislation that allows companies to immediately expense domestic R&D costs, according to Barron’s.
- Intel (INTC) slipped 0.5%, retracing some of yesterday’s 7% gain. Bloomberg reported another 500 job cuts at the company, part of a broader cost-cutting initiative that could eventually affect 20% of Intel’s workforce. Microsoft recently announced about 9,000 layoffs as major tech and chip firms continue ramping up investments in AI.
- Wynn Resorts (WYNN) fell 1.2% after Citi downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy, citing expectations of short-term market share loss in Macau.
- T-Mobile U.S. (TMUS) declined 1.8% following a downgrade to Underweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc, which pointed to near-term competitive pressures.
- Caterpillar (CAT) gained 1.5% after Melius Research upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold, citing a potential uptick in engine demand tied to expanding data center capacity.
- Starbucks (SBUX) climbed 2% premarket after reports suggested the company is considering offers for a controlling stake in its Starbucks China operations, which could be valued at up to $10 billion.
- AES Corp. (AES) surged 12.6% after Bloomberg reported the utility company is weighing strategic options, including a potential sale.
What’s Ahead
Fed minutes from the June meeting are due at 2 p.m. ET. Several policymakers indicated last month that a July rate cut could be on the table, though seven officials said they don’t expect any rate cuts at all in 2025. However, the meeting minutes reflect conditions as of mid-June — before last week’s nonfarm payrolls report, which showed solid headline job gains of 147,000 and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%.
Earnings season kicks off in earnest next week with big banks, but Delta Air Lines (DAL) beats them to the gate when it reports Thursday morning.
July 10: Expected earnings from Conagra (CAG), Delta (DAL), and Levi Strauss (LEVI).
July 11: No major earnings or data expected.
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